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All-purpose Thunderstorm Discussion Thread

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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Epicnova

Epicnova

Posted
Posted

Seekonk MA here. What does it look like for my area? Will we actually get something good? So far every storm we've had this year has either dissipated before reaching us, or avoided us all together. The only good storm we had was on friday, and even then it didn't hit us directly.

 

Also, Hi I'm new here. :3 Been a lurker for a few months now but only recently decided to make an account. I hope you will excuse my poor grammar and my complete lack of any complex weather knowledge (i don't even know half of what you guys are talking about. xD)

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

59 years old and pretty sure I have seen more close lightning strikes in one week than my entire life combined. Holy **** are we been getting smoked here. Last night after we got home I took all the dogs out when I heard a tremendous wind coming, I scrambled to get them in just before a gust front with 50 plus mph winds sent branches flying. Good stuff

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

59 years old and pretty sure I have seen more close lightning strikes in one week than my entire life combined. Holy **** are we been getting smoked here. Last night after we got home I took all the dogs out when I heard a tremendous wind coming, I scrambled to get them in just before a gust front with 50 plus mph winds sent branches flying. Good stuff

Yesterday's storms here probably combined for like 4 solid hours of strobe lightning and nearly 2.5" of rain.  The persistence of the lightning was something I haven't seen in a long time.  That was awesome.  Didn't really get any wind here but it's all heavily forested so maybe 30mph.  It's amazing how strong even 30mph is in a dense leafed out forest.  No doubt in my mind 50mph here would take down a lot of trees and branches.

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yesterday's storms here probably combined for like 4 solid hours of strobe lightning and nearly 2.5" of rain.  The persistence of the lightning was something I haven't seen in a long time.  That was awesome.  Didn't really get any wind here but it's all heavily forested so maybe 30mph.  It's amazing how strong even 30mph is in a dense leafed out forest.  No doubt in my mind 50mph here would take down a lot of trees and branches.

 

bunch of good size limbs one big tree down in our woods. Guess the Gypsy moths thinning was good for one thing

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

yesterday by this time towers were building today is wall to wall sun

My dad actually just mentioned that haha.

Yesterday now we were in the lake listening to distant thunder with massive Tcu everywhere going straight up.  Right now it's like fair weather cumulus but like 80% blue sky.  Yesterday the blue was already getting choked out by huge towers and the first storm hit at around 3pm.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

bunch of good size limbs one big tree down in our woods. Guess the Gypsy moths thinning was good for one thing

Noted the gypsy moth damage on the Pike between Sturbridge and Ludlow...Ware and Brimfield looked like early May with leaf out just starting.

Havent noticed it in Woodstock though.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

She come

Mesoscale Discussion 1532
< Previous MD
MD 1532 graphic 
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...NJ...SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141745Z - 141945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN PA ENEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.
   WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING UPON STORM
   COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL PA
   EXTENDING NEWD INTO ERN NY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THIS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN
   THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE MCD AREA OVER THE LAST FEW
   HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP IN
   INTENSITY...MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PA...NRN NJ...SE NY AND
   SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AT STATE COLLEGE PA AND
   ALBANY NY SHOW WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF
   FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION MAKING WIND DAMAGE
   POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE INLAND FROM THE
   COAST WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 08/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

My dad actually just mentioned that haha.

Yesterday now we were in the lake listening to distant thunder with massive Tcu everywhere going straight up.  Right now it's like fair weather cumulus but like 80% blue sky.  Yesterday the blue was already getting choked out by huge towers and the first storm hit at around 3pm. 

TSTMS ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO INTERIOR
   SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL MAY ALSO
   OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS.

   ...ERN PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   GRADUAL BACKGROUND MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE OCCURRING OVER THE MID
   ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  A BELT OF MODERATE MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
   BE MAINTAINED OVER NRN PA/NY INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THE SRN FRINGE OF
   THE WLYS...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES
   ENEWD AND LOSES AMPLITUDE IN A WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ALOFT. 
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SAINT
   LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND THE FRONT IS PRECEDED WITH A DIFFUSE TROUGH
   AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE FROM CENTRAL PA TO INTERIOR SRN NEW
   ENGLAND.  REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED 35-50 KT FLOW IN THE
   700-500 MB LAYER /REAFFIRMED BY RECENT BGM VWP/...AND THE POTENTIAL
   FOR MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM 1500-3000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID
   70S.

   IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL FORM IN
   THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE FROM SE NY INTO NE PA...AND PERHAPS IN
   ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING STORM CLUSTER MOVING EWD FROM CENTRAL OH. 
   THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT
   BUOYANCY AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH
   PRECIPITATION LOADING...AS WELL AS DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF
   HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
   MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ...BLACK HILLS AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
   A SERIES OF WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM THE
   NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH RELATED LEE CYCLOGENESIS
   EXPECTED FROM ERN WY TO SE MT.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE. 
   HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
   TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BLACK HILLS PERHAPS NWD TO SW ND. 
   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THIS
   EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. 
   THE WAA WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR TWO INTO TONIGHT
   ACROSS SD.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
   BE THE MAIN THREATS.
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tell that to BOS and Ray and Scooter and WBY and my dad's in New Milford etc etc..Convection season. Have's and have not's Not widespread

Yeah but that happens also in the winter and all year round to some extent.  Everyone has gotten rain, the pattern has become more wet compared to July, but no not everyone is swimming in it.

Same thing happens in the winter, not everyone can get 12"+ every storm but you can see when a pattern has become "snowier" on the whole.  It doesn't mean above normal precip, just that there's been an uptick from previous baseline.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

it's a special pattern when anyone in SNE can ask for 2 days in a row of severe threat ...  

i mean it happens once in a rare while but by and large, you get so much as a lightning bolt and it's like you gotta go to banality-jail for 10 days to pay for your "greed"

can you imagine living in Plains where you get 4 days in a row of supercells on a horizon?   i've seen training supercells out there before... i'm tellin' ya: living around here is just a different weather culture. may as well be a different country in that regard, compared to anywhere else west of the Hudson - i've often argued with my internal monologue in the past that i figure anywhere east of an NYC-PWM line to be a marine/land-based hybrid micro climate .. but that's a different annoyance that applies to springs... 

 

 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

HRRR being basically devoid of convection is obviously a red flag for later today.

The background synoptics may kill us here. The SPC mesoanalysis has ~3000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE and 35+ knots of effective bulk shear. Pretty sweet thermodynamics and shear but we're going to struggle with rising heights and some mid level dry air. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

HRRR being basically devoid of convection is obviously a red flag for later today.

The background synoptics may kill us here. The SPC mesoanalysis has ~3000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE and 35+ knots of effective bulk shear. Pretty sweet thermodynamics and shear but we're going to struggle with rising heights and some mid level dry air. 

The HRRR has been real scattered since this morning.

The last hope is that the boundary is really just now starting to impinge on the theta-e axis. If we don't start seeing things go soon, it's probably cooked for more than isolated strong storms.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

SPC WRF still likes SNE, and like Ryan said, it's a good environment down there.

We'll see how those storms heading into the Catskills do over the next hour. The environment is pretty nice out by POU so if they don't start taking off we're in trouble.

Things are pretty ripe around here... much better wind fields/deep layer shear than last couple days. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The HRRR has been real scattered since this morning.

The last hope is that the boundary is really just now starting to impinge on the theta-e axis. If we don't start seeing things go soon, it's probably cooked for more than isolated strong storms.

yeah i was thinking the same thing; it's an evolving scenario that isn't really helpful to look up stream... like, that gusty shred stuff out there isn't what one should really focus on - then perhaps some TCU line will trigger and go in a hour or two... 

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