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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The interesting thing is that I have never seen the GFS beat the Euro on a hurricane or nor'easter track when the GFS was further west than the Euro.

All the GFS wins including Hermine and the January 2015 blizzard were when the storm went further to the east than the Euro had it.

The Euro won with Joaquin being more east than the GFS and the GFS too far west. It also got Sandy coming back to the coast while the GFS was OTS.

The GFS did better on Hermine early on when the Euro had it coming back to the coast and strengthening while the GFS held it further east.

It also did better with the Jan 15 blizzard being further east. But it lost on Feb 2013 not being far west enough like the Euro had it.

This would be a new type of western coup for the GFS should the storm get further west like its showing and maybe part of recent updates to the model.

 

The big model test comes in 3-5 days when the GFS is more west and the Euro east which determines the day 6-10 track

 

ecmwf_mslp_east3_21.png

gfs_surf_pres_conus_21.png

 

 

I would take the Euro in a heartbeat, but we'll see what happens. 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Bluewave - Great post above, thanks (having trouble with quotes).  One minor disagreement though.  I hear you on Hermine, although for my money, when it truly counted, the Euro beat the GFS on Saturday into Sunday, when it predicted a much longer eastward movement further OTS, while the GFS had the retrograde starting much earlier, impacting the coast.  The Euro "won" the part of the forecast that really mattered, IMO.  

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

 

http://pix11.com/2016/09/30/earthquake-with-preliminary-magnitude-2-7-hits-off-jersey-shore/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=57ef27de04d3012045f73229&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

 

Same thing happened in 2011  and look what happened after an earthquake happened ( Irene and Sandy )

 

Ironic? lol

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 

http://pix11.com/2016/09/30/earthquake-with-preliminary-magnitude-2-7-hits-off-jersey-shore/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=57ef27de04d3012045f73229&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

 

Same thing happened in 2011 and 2012 and look what happened after an earthquake happened ( Irene and Sandy )

 

Ironic? lol

I don't remember an earthquake prior to Sandy so you may have to refresh my memory, but I do remember the one before Irene, felt it. 

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Metsfan

Metsfan

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

CtrSLlpXgAEmUbb.jpg

Ensembles remain quite uncertain for #Matthew. European has ~20% of members with US landfall, GFS closer to 50%. US interests should monitor

Even if Matthew isn't a direct hit. Going with the GFS solely here  it'll stil be major as it's transition to extra-tropical would expand wind/rain fields. 

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doncat

doncat

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I don't remember an earthquake prior to Sandy so you may have to refresh my memory, but I do remember the one before Irene, felt it. 

Yeah was that 2011 or 12 but I definitely  felt it...was an exciting period both years with 2011 having Irene and the incredible rains for August into Sept followed by the early snowstorm at the end of October...2012 had Sandy followed by the early November snowstorm which dropped 7 inches here.

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, doncat said:

Yeah was that 2011 or 12 but I definitely  felt it...was an exciting period both years with 2011 having Irene and the incredible rains for August into Sept followed by the early snowstorm at the end of October...2012 had Sandy followed by the early November snowstorm which dropped 7 inches here.

The earthquake was in 2011 about 2-3 days before Irene hit.

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said:

Surprised by the lack of hype from u guys.  The crowd is usually nuts here.

 

 

Been reading a lot lately about the correlation between major storms / hurricanes...and the triggers of Earthquakes / Volcanoes.   quite interesting.

After the Hermine debacle I can see why. Also, there is plenty of uncertainty yet on where Matthew will ultimately track since its still around 7 days away if we do get impacts. I really wouldn't lean to heavily on any solution yet at least for a couple of more days or so.

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