2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Jason WX said:

18z GFS captured. 

 

[Jason WX]

Just now, Rjay said:

 

12Z had maine, shifted west. any more and the nyc metro will get bombed 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Jason WX said:

12Z had maine, shifted west. any more and the nyc metro will get bombed 

On this particular run Matthew transitions to an ET storm and the wind field really expands once up at our latitude.   

[WaPo]

How do I get the high res GFS on Tropical Tidbits? I couldn't find the option for the last hour.

[Big Jims Videos]

20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

On this particular run Matthew transitions to an ET storm and the wind field really expands once up at our latitude.   

Excellent point. Whatever is coming up this way will be transitioning and winds will be less compact, more expensive, albeit less strong.  

I can tell you the beaches are taking a pounding this week and there was significant erosion while hermine danced off shore.  A track even 300 miles off shore will not help the situation down by our beaches.  

[MJO812]

18z Navgem

[MJO812]

GEFS has interesting solutions

[Santa Claus]

Kinda useless to talk location I guess, what an insanely difficult forecast.

Lets see if it goes all Wilma on us lol

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Kinda useless to talk location I guess, what an insanely difficult forecast.

Lets see if it goes all Wilma on us lol

165 mph surface wind reported. Should be cat 5 now.

[NortheastPAWx]

Guessing 160 at next advisory.

[BombsAway1288]

Officially a CAT 5 now. 160 mph sustained with 195 mph gusts in the 11pm advisory. 

No models, not even one predicted it at CAT 5 strength right now. How will this effect the track if at all?

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Pray for Jamaica 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

On this particular run Matthew transitions to an ET storm and the wind field really expands once up at our latitude.   

I work with a ton of Jamaicans. If this goes just 50 miles west it's a nightmare for Kingston. This has humanitarian crisis written all over it

[dmillz25]

Wow when was the last time there was a cat 5 in the Atlantic?

[nesussxwx]

4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Wow when was the last time there was a cat 5 in the Atlantic?

2007 if I am not mistaken.

[snow1]

Anything from the gfs?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snow1 said:

Anything from the gfs?

Hurricane rides the coast

Tons of rain and wind

[Rjay]

Yanksfan's wet dream on the GFS 

[MJO812]

CMC hooks the storm back west from all the way out in the ocean and slams Maine.

[snow1]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

CMC hooks the storm back west from all the way out in the ocean and slams Maine.

So gfs is the only one showing a hit for us right now

[Rjay]

  Hugs the coast from Florida to New England 

[Heisy]

2 minutes ago, snow1 said:

So gfs is the only one showing a hit for us right now

Verbatim yes, but the CMC showing this is a great sign (if you want this to happen). Its finally another model showing the phase/pin wheel solution, doesn't matter where it hits exactly, bottom line is it shows it actually happening. 

[Rjay]

Breezy

[MJO812]

GEFS is also west and slams the area.

[Rjay]

For Ant

[dmillz25]

I'm hoping this hits only because I'm a weather enthusiast. Otherwise nah

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

40 knot onshore winds start kicking up near the coast , even when it's still down by S.C.
  (925mb)  even this is probably underdone, considering no models are acknowledging it's current intensity -

and as it nears the area -

[RedSky]

Just for giggles I would like to know what effect the winds on the GFS map at 192hrs would have on the area with full leaf out. Sandy was bad with 50/50 coverage.

 

 

 

 

[David-LI]

euro is OTS. Hits Bermuda.

[WaPo]

The 500mb trough just looks so weak on the GFS, I have a hard time seeing this thing actually phase at the moment.