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Geos

la Niña Watch

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I really don't like trying to define a good winter by storms alone. You could have a wall to wall torch and sneak a monster out of it.

Temps are a better gauge.

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You could have a wall to wall torch and sneak a monster out of it.

 

 

that's the ideal setup

 

50-60s all winter with a single 2' bomb

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duh, even if this winter doesn't deliver in the final snowfall total department (and who really cares about that) i like the prospects for cutters and active weather

Ending up on the wrong side of a storm all winter is like going to the bar every weekend with your friend and he's always taking home the chick.

Screw that.

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that's the ideal setup

50-60s all winter with a single 2' bomb

Ending up on the wrong side of a storm all winter is like going to the bar every weekend with your friend and he's always taking home the chick.

Screw that.

Nah... More like scoring the hottest chick one or two nights and getting to chill at your sick bachelor pad the rest of the time. As opposed your friend who's in a steady, but often boring long-term relationship.

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Nah... More like scoring the hottest chick one or two nights and getting to chill at your sick bachelor pad the rest of the time. As opposed your friend who's in a steady, but often boring long-term relationship.

Aleks plan is more like a lot of maturbation and maybe a weekend at the bunny ranch once a year.

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Name me one year that happened!?! Edit: in the Lwr Lks, not the EC

Alek would be better off moving to somewhere like Austin, TX. He would like the weather and politics, plus he could just fly into an EC city before a big dog and fly out afterwards.

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Alek would be better off moving to somewhere like Austin, TX. He would like the weather and politics, plus he could just fly into an EC city before a big dog and fly out afterwards.

 

Alek likes his lake breezes. You're confusing him with Saukville.

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Alek likes his lake breezes. You're confusing him with Saukville.

 

 

or one of those palm tree growing goof balls out in the burbs

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ENSO weeklies are dropping pretty fast now as the SOI climbs and the Indian Ocean cools substantially. Considering the subsurface cold anomalies, we could see a significant La Nina by summer's end as the cold bubble surfaces. TAO/TRITON analysis already shows an area of -1C SST anomalies from 125-140W longitude along the equator.

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The weekly 3.4 number came in at -0.4.  After flirting with either side of 0 for a while, this looks like the real deal and it should remain negative going forward.  That being said, this La Nina is developing fairly slowly to this point (compared to some others in recent years) which makes any talk of a strong Nina questionable at best.  

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The weekly 3.4 number came in at -0.4. After flirting with either side of 0 for a while, this looks like the real deal and it should remain negative going forward. That being said, this La Nina is developing fairly slowly to this point (compared to some others in recent years) which makes any talk of a strong Nina questionable at best.

Accuweather already released a winter graphic with them banking on a weak La Niña. I was also watching a YouTube video of some forecaster (forgot who it was) he also said any talk of a strong La Niña would be tossed.

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A central based Nina like this screams active fall severe season.

Should be a banner fall and spring for severe weather. Most first year Niñas are quite active, with only a few examples of fairly quiet seasons. If the PDO can get to more neutral or negative, will further help ensure an active severe weather pattern.

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Should be a banner fall and spring for severe weather. Most first year Niñas are quite active, with only a few examples of fairly quiet seasons. If the PDO can get to more neutral or negative, will further help ensure an active severe weather pattern.

Yeah the PDO is at least trending that way.

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Surprised this thread hasn't caught more attention lately. The ensemble means now support a very weak La Niña for the upcoming winter, barely meeting La Niña threshold, a far cry from the super Niña we all had discussed back in spring. Pretty interesting watching this enso state unfold. As was discussed earlier for potential analogs 73-74 popped up a few times, but now leaning more towards 83-84 being a closer match.

Wasn't a bad winter. In fact December was VERY cold that year.

Overall, a very cold winter for the conus.

post-5916-0-13476000-1468180204_thumb.pn

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Since the demise of the big 2015-16 El Niño in April, the tropical Pacific has been loitering around in neutral… and now forecasters think it’s likely to stay that way through the winter. For now, we’re taking down the La Niña Watch, since it no longer looks favorable for La Niña conditions to develop within the next six months.

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Have had 4 consecutive trimonthly readings of -0.5 or colder.  Just need the NDJ reading to come in at -0.5 or lower and this will officially be a La Nina episode.  Sort of a moot point though as there have been Nina tendencies in the pattern no matter how you slice it. 

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