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la Niña Watch


Geos

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Will be interesting to see what that does to global temps.

That it will. Could a strong to very strong La Niña hamper global temps from rising the next 1-2 years? Small analog pool for next winter should SCRIPPS be right. 73-74 sticks out right now.

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That it will. Could a strong to very strong La Niña hamper global temps from rising the next 1-2 years? Small analog pool for next winter should SCRIPPS be right. 73-74 sticks out right now.

 

I think ENSO loads the dice, but anything can still happen.

 

This past winter had a TERRIBLE December, but the other two months weren't that bad.

 

2011-2012 was a weak nina and that winter sucked from start to finish.

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That it will. Could a strong to very strong La Niña hamper global temps from rising the next 1-2 years? Small analog pool for next winter should SCRIPPS be right. 73-74 sticks out right now.

 

Let's see, I was in the 4th grade, living in central Ohio and I believe that winter was memorable for how forgettable it was.   I think that was a big severe year though.   

 

Will see if my memory serves me well once the board statisticians chime in.  :lol:

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Let's see, I was in the 4th grade, living in central Ohio and I believe that winter was memorable for how forgettable it was. I think that was a big severe year though.

Will see if my memory serves me well once the board statisticians chime in. :lol:

Historic outbreak in april of 74, depending where you lived in central Ohio, you were probably close to some large tornadoes.
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Alek is done sold on blowtorch. I'm with Stebo a blend of 73-74 and 10-11 is probably a solid call, and that would bode well for the sub, high end moderate low end strong Niña.

All those winters Stebo mentioned great things have happened in everyone of them, although 73-74 didn't feature blockbuster winter storms, the outbreak payed dividends.

I'm going high end moderate La Niña this winter. Only reason I'm skeptical on a strong Niña is because how bad models handled the Nino of 2014.

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Alek is done sold on blowtorch. I'm with Stebo a blend of 73-74 and 10-11 is probably a solid call, and that would bode well for the sub, high end moderate low end strong Niña.

All those winters Stebo mentioned great things have happened in everyone of them, although 73-74 didn't feature blockbuster winter storms, the outbreak payed dividends.

I'm going high end moderate La Niña this winter. Only reason I'm skeptical on a strong Niña is because how bad models handled the Nino of 2014.

 

I think the winters of 13-14, 14-15 had an effect on him.  :lol:

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love all the hopes and dreams being pinned on the nina

There really are very few first year moderate to strong Ninas that are clunkers. 1998-99 is one of the worst and it had an incredible January. 88-89 is another bad year but it started sooner than this Nina will and was stronger than this upcoming Nina

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There really are very few first year moderate to strong Ninas that are clunkers. 1998-99 is one of the worst and it had an incredible January. 88-89 is another bad year but it started sooner than this Nina will and was stronger than this upcoming Nina

Other than 88-89 most nina winters are good. And chances for a massive snowstorm are higher than normal. Not to mention...we just are on a roll with winters. There's absolutely no way to get around it. This past winter was just one of two winters in the last 9 years to have below normal snow, while 4 of the last 9 made detroits all time snowiest list (including #1). This past winter wasn't just a strong nino, but a super nino, & we STILL ended up with 85% of normal snowfall. No reason to not keep riding the hot hand until we really do see a stinker or more importantly a smattering of stinkers, not one a decade :lol:. I'm sure it will happen eventually.
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Its a really interesting winter shaping up. As Geos pointed out, IF we do get a strong Niña it would be unique since we are pre dominantly in a +PDO phase, and as alek pointed out near record low sea ice, I think solar cycles are cool to follow, and solar activity is super low right now.

All I really want for next winter is a front loaded winter, and snow on the ground for the holidays. 4/5 last Decembers have been straight blow torches. Brown Christmases are the worst.

Also if the Jamstec were to be believed, we would be looking at a multi year La Niña event.

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And also to add on from previous post, if models are correct in that a multi year Niña is on the way, it's actually very common being preceded by strong to very strong Ninos. Plotted below are multi year ninas following strong to very strong Ninos. Those years (1973,1974,1975,1983,1984,1998,1999) all of varying strength. As I have said previously 1973-1974 might not be a bad match for this upcoming winter and perhaps 1974-1975 scenario will play out for the following winter? Premature of course but fun speculation...

post-5916-0-85379100-1463572244_thumb.pn

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No guarantees but if I had to pick whether to go into winter with a strong Nina or strong Nino (or even moderate), I know which side I'd go with.

 

 

duh, even if this winter doesn't deliver in the final snowfall total department (and who really cares about that) i like the prospects for cutters and active weather

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duh, even if this winter doesn't deliver in the final snowfall total department (and who really cares about that) i like the prospects for cutters and active weather

All 3 of Stebo's picks (10-11, 98-99, 73-74) each had at least one storm that dropped up to 2 feet of snow in the lower lakes, not to mention a slew of activity.
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