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la Niña Watch


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All indications a strong la Niña will take shape by early autumn.

 

Currently we have an el Niño still, but the SST anomalies are crashing hard.

 

nino34Mon.gif

 

nino34.rescaling.NMME.png

 

Region 1+2 has really cooled off.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

7 day change shows the cooling in the equatorial eastern basin well.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

You can see in the last few frames the colder waters rising up from the depths.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

 

nmme_ssta_noice_cpac_3.png

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Lol at the SCRIPPS with a -3.5 anomaly in 3.4 by winter. That would literally blow any other ENSO event in terms of peak tri-monthly magnitude out of the water. Obviously overdone, but seems to be a reasonable shot at a mod/strong event if we continue to see the cold pool surfacing at this rate.

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Lol at the SCRIPPS with a -3.5 anomaly in 3.4 by winter. That would literally blow any other ENSO event in terms of peak tri-monthly magnitude out of the water. Obviously overdone, but seems to be a reasonable shot at a mod/strong event if we continue to see the cold pool surfacing at this rate.

Godzilla El Nino... Mothra La Nina?
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Well if we transition to full blown strong La Niña conditions for met winter of 2016-2017 perhaps 1973-1974 could be a very strong analog, as that year also preceded a very strong El Niño, followed by strong La Niña. And we all know what happened in spring of 74!

 

I wasn't alive then, so what did happen that spring?

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I'm not that great with dates.

Was it just one day or was it a few, several?

Second largest violent tornado outbreak on record in a 24 hr period behind 2011, C. Illinois and NW Indiana were hit extremely hard. Not to mention the south was obliterated as well. Will pull up some maps here shortly!

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Not the best signal for a rockin winter for the sub if a 72-73, 73-74 scenario played out, but could be worse. Better than the garbage of 15-16'

 

Thanks for the info.

Yeah that wouldn't be all that bad of a winter signal.

 

Just looking at the Pacific Ocean - still have that warm pool along the West Coast. That could make this upcoming winter a bit unique if the la Niña is really ripping.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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Second largest violent tornado outbreak on record in a 24 hr period behind 2011, C. Illinois and NW Indiana were hit extremely hard. Not to mention the south was obliterated as well. Will pull up some maps here shortly!

 

North Central IN got hit hard too. Downtown Russiaville was destroyed. Monticello IN, didn't fare very well either. Their courthouse:

 

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