baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think the game changer will be tonight's GGEM. If the GGEM heads towards the GFS with an OTS solution, I think it could be a true sign that the GFS may be onto something (and the Euro may follow suite with 00z run). I have a strong feeling tonights 0Z guidance will not budge. I personally still think the GFS is wrong given the weak PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I noticed the same thing, that COULD be bad, doesn't mean it IS bad, but it COULD be...see the DT post, that when an outlying model starts seeing ANY support soon after its outlying run or has multiple runs showing something different it may be onto something. I could be wrong but the NAM has the CAA on a beeline towards the GOM very similar to the CMC. It definitely is not trending towards GFS. The whole scenario comes down to how the models handle the CAA and the developing trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 15Z SREF's did not close off H5. We may be in for quite a disappointment tonight. Also, 18Z DGEX is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 15Z SREF's did not close off H5. We may be in for quite a disappointment tonight. Also, 18Z DGEX is OTS. Dude, come on. SREFs? DGEX? For a storm still 120+ hours away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 15Z SREF's did not close off H5. We may be in for quite a disappointment tonight. Also, 18Z DGEX is OTS. Someone mentioned it earlier in a different thread but the DGEX initializes with the GFS @84 hours. It will most definitely look like the GFS at this time frame even with NAM dynamics. DGEX really means little at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Dude, come on. SREFs? DGEX? For a storm still 120+ hours away? The seeds are being planted at 72-84 HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 More Miller B than Miller A. When do you think you'll post a percentages map? I am so stunned by this Its clear after your comments about the 18z GDEX and this that you dont know have No clue what a Miller A or B is I cannot make it any clearer east coast snowstorms that are based on the s/w energy in the STJ are NOT Miller Bs they Just are NOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well if there is any consolation (and it's not much), the 18zgfs ensembles appear to be a little west of the op. This is mostly after hr 120. Tough to tell because of large spread after hr 120, but that's how it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I have a strong feeling tonights 0Z guidance will not budge. I personally still think the GFS is wrong given the weak PV. We'll see. I'm actually worried we'll see the ECMWF look a whole lot worse, but that might be the pessimist in me. As I said in the Mid Atlantic regional forum, it was very disheartening to see both the 12Z and 18Z GFS look like a train wreck for this possible storm and even in the period beyond that. I was hoping to at least see more of a nod toward the 12Z Euro in the 18Z GFS, but alas, no. From what I've seen, HPC and several forecast offices are leaning more toward something like the Euro (not as extreme, of course). It would be a bad scenario if this ends up evaporating and there has to be a lot of back-pedaling on the prospects of this event. I suppose that's what makes this field so aggravating and exciting at the same time, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS keeps pumpin up that ridge out west more and more. Comparing 6z to 18z the 564dm contour is hundreds of miles further north. Same difference between 18z gfs and 12z euro/ggem. Not a met so I dont know what could be causing this or if this is even having an effect on the storm's position in the respective models, just something I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 15Z SREF's did not close off H5. We may be in for quite a disappointment tonight. Also, 18Z DGEX is OTS. Next up you're going to tell us the Hungarian 18z model is OTS also. For the love of God i would expect posts like yours from a weenie but coming from a Red Tag it is alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I would also like to point out again, the pv sliding SSW'ward per the GFS around hr. 84 on the 18z run....the NAM, Euro, and GGEM all keep/hold that feature much further north for a longer period of time, allowing heights to build along the eastern seaboard..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Next up you're going to tell us the Hungarian 18z model is OTS also. For the love of God i would expect posts like yours from a weenie but coming from a Red Tag it is alarming. Somehow the myth has spread that models like the KMA, JMA, and DGEX are actually worth discussing and that we should care what they show. I am not sure why people think this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Other things to look at (as DT does), consistency......GFS is failing miserably right now.......GGEM, Euro much better....and the cherry is UK is sliding into the GGEM/Euro camp. I'm pretty confident that the ridge building in the west will consolidate a nice channel of vorticity aimed right at the base of the STJ s/w near AR/LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I don't know if this post is out to lunch, but I guess I'll find out. Looking just at the 500 maps for 66 hours for 18z GFS and 72 hours for EC 12z, it looks like the biggest issue is the speed with which the energy off the coast of Cal. comes east. At 48 h (EC) and 42 (18 GFS) it's in almost the exact same spot in AZ. It's the next 24 hours where the big change comes. The EC has it at or about Amarillo, where the GFS has it at or about OK City. From there the changes become huge. Wouldn't the degree of buckle in the flow ahead of this thing argue for it making it east slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I would also like to point out again, the pv sliding SSW'ward per the GFS around hr. 84 on the 18z run....the NAM, Euro, and GGEM all keep/hold that feature much further north for a longer period of time, allowing heights to build along the eastern seaboard..... So, if I may ask a clarifying quession: your point is you believe the NAM, EURO and GGEM are more likely right because the way they treat the PV or more likely wrong because of that, or you can't tell which is correct yet, but which ever is more correct on the prediction of the PV wins the pony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 For DT, and other Mets: where in the models do you start seeing indications of convective banding, thundersnow and the types of turbulent forces that come with Lows that are bombing out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So, if I may ask a clarifying quession: your point is you believe the NAM, EURO and GGEM are more likely right because the way they treat the PV or more likely wrong because of that, or you can't tell which is correct yet, but which ever is more correct on the prediction of the PV wins the pony? I can't tell....water vapor imagery that I have does nothing to depict any features (to oblique of an angle.....but going by the majority....I think the GFS is not handling it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GGEM will overdeepen a dust devil, so I don't buy it's solution. I'm not happy with it either, but that's the way it is right now. Hey you dont like the GGEM idea... great But that isnt what you said u said the euro is alone now you are saying well the euro and ggem are alone??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hey you dont like the GGEM idea... great But that isnt what you said u said the euro is alone now you are saying well the euro and ggem are alone??? UKMet also develops a bomb, even if it is a bit too east right now. So that is three models that develop the storm more than the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 For DT, and other Mets: where in the models do you start seeing indications of convective banding, thundersnow and the types of turbulent forces that come with Lows that are bombing out? We have a LONG way to go for that. 24-36 hours out is when you usually start nailing that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looking at UK/Euro/NAM tells me the GFS is rushing the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looking at UK/Euro/NAM tells me the GFS is rushing the southern stream. GFS "rushes" it due to the open H5 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 didn't the euro hold the southern s/w in the west before exiting , thus phasing ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 didn't the euro hold the southern s/w in the west before exiting , thus phasing ?? Yep, I really think a middle of the road approach might be correct. Euro's bias is the hang back energy and the GFS's bias (at least old version) was to be too far south and east. I have a feeling a middle of the road approach, perhaps like the GGEM (ensemebles), is the most prudent approach at this time. If Euro and GFS hold serve, the GGEM trend will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yep, I really think a middle of the road approach might be correct. Euro's bias is the hang back energy and the GFS's bias (at least old version) was to be too far south and east. I have a feeling a middle of the road approach, perhaps like the GGEM (ensemebles), is the most prudent approach at this time. If Euro and GFS hold serve, the GGEM trend will be telling. The 12Z GGEM ensemble mean was way OTS. A blend of that and the GFS would maybe give Bermuda some sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 12Z GGEM ensemble mean was way OTS. A blend of that and the GFS would maybe give Bermuda some sprinkles. Well, that's the closest compromise I could find. How 'bout this. Get your protractor and draw a line between the GFS and EURO op tracks. Maybe closer to the Euro since it doesn't suck as much as the GFS. Edit: Sorry if this is too technical for the newbies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I love how the gfs shows a mega Phased of the two jet streams at 102hrs. With a wimpy 1008mb pencil low with a positive tilt. Hopoefully the GFS will learn meteorolgy in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Maybe we can use some "weenie" logic here concerning the GFS in the mid-range period. How did this turn out for Minneapolis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Maybe we can use some "weenie" logic here concerning the GFS in the mid-range period. How did this turn out for Minneapolis? Is that the storm the Euro had over Iowa while every other model had it basically right where the GFS shows it and the Euro ended up being correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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