usedtobe Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Still not going to be a good run, look at teh 850 winds to the north of the developing 850 low, there are no east winds. Looks to me like it will be ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS all alone right now with this super-suppressed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFS or the Euro is headed for a miserable failure. GFS cannot disagree more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not a met, but it seems like the strength and position of the atlantic low is flattening the heights out ahead of this storm, causing a further E track than some of the other models.........correct me if Im wrong. That's the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 one model says major blizzard i95 one model says partly cloudy good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow... 18z GFS trended even FURTHER away from its own solution (12z and prior runs)... all the while the Euro and other models trended towards a significant storm. We're watching a game of chicken between the GFS and Euro. Now, I have no idea which solution is correct. Both sides could also be wrong. However, I really do think that the GFS is struggling with the phasing of the two streams in days 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS is still way faster than the Euro, GGEM, or UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think the game changer will be tonight's GGEM. If the GGEM heads towards the GFS with an OTS solution, I think it could be a true sign that the GFS may be onto something (and the Euro may follow suite with 00z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS swings but misses: Yet the H5 maps says the low should be much farther West: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think the game changer will be tonight's GGEM. If the GGEM heads towards the GFS with an OTS solution, I think the GFS may be onto something. 12z GGEM was OTS, much like the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS swings but misses: Yet the H5 maps says the low should be much farther West: Thanks for posting that, I was wondering if anyone else had seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z GGEM was OTS, much like the 18z GFS It was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The euro has let us down many times...but I've seen this happen alot on big east coast storms where the euro abuses the Gfs. If Gfs showed a storm and euro didn't..it would be over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It was? No. The GGEM was NOT out to sea. Refresh your page. It has a 980 mb low just south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z GGEM was OTS, much like the 18z GFS What? A sub 980 low south and east of Long Island is what is shown on the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It was? Yeah, look in the 12z thread, post #346 by Ender. I was referring to the GGEM ens mean, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS swings but misses: Yet the H5 maps says the low should be much farther West: You have a broad, positive tilt troph on the east coast, why should the surface low be further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The euro has let us down many times...but I've seen this happen alot on big east coast storms where the euro abuses the Gfs. If Gfs showed a storm and euro didn't..it would be over Ji, I would agree. However, at the most recent debacle with the Euro, it's anyone's guess at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks for posting that, I was wondering if anyone else had seen that. maybe a bit west but with that trough orientation it doesnt matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z GGEM was OTS, much like the 18z GFS Not for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If the euro is out to sea tonight..It will become just another model to me. That being said..its shown hecs 3 out of the last 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not for me. I meant the ensemble mean. Sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can someone explain one more time why anyone is looking at the GFS now on any run..at this juncture? some people don't just buy the big solution because it's there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can someone explain one more time why anyone is looking at the GFS now on any run..at this juncture? Based on the last storm, seems like any of the models have a solid chance at being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What appears to be the main issue is closing off H5 in the SE. If the H5 remains closed, the system slows enough and is able to turn the corner and phase. Otherwise, the system head OTS and never phases. Anyway you toss the dice, there's going to be a big time show down with tonight's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GGEM ensembles couldn't look more different from the operational... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm not comparing the images to each other. I'm comparing them to the 12Z Euro/GFS at the same valid time. The first (12Z NAM) is identical to the 12Z Euro in the handling of the S/W at 84 hours. The second (18Z NAM) has taken a step toward the 12Z GFS solution at 84 hours, that is all I'm saying, it is no longer a carbon copy of the Euro. EDIT: What I didn't mention is that even though the upper level seems to have stepped away from the Euro, the surface solution still looks very similar to the 12z Euro. With such disparate solutions, I'm interested to see which solution the NAM seems to be buddying up with...thats the point of the comparison. I noticed the same thing, that COULD be bad, doesn't mean it IS bad, but it COULD be...see the DT post, that when an outlying model starts seeing ANY support soon after its outlying run or has multiple runs showing something different it may be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What appears to be the main issue is closing off H5 in the SE. If the H5 remains closed, the system slows enough and is able to turn the corner and phase. Otherwise, the system head OTS and never phases. Anyway you toss the dice, there's going to be a big time show down with tonight's Euro. Definitely a major piece of the puzzle. Thats why when the 18Z NAM moved away from the closed low it had at 12Z to a faster open wave (more similar to the GFS handling of the S/W) I found it interesting enough to point out. It's just one run but something to keep in mind for future cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I know it only goes out to 48 hrs, but the 18Z run of the RGEM has the trough looking quite healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 really? Yikes you still think this is a Miller B do you? More Miller B than Miller A. When do you think you'll post a percentages map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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