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RyanDe680

March 23-24 System

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Front making progress past Joliet now.

 

EURO set up the F-Gen band just north of Milwaukee in the late morning. 

 

La Crosse to Manitowoc, Green Bay getting smoked.

 

Deformation band more pronounced on this run. Gets going in N IL around 6pm.

Where is that precious snow map you post around this time? :P

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Where is that precious snow map you post around this time? :P

 

Little tired tonight running out of steam  :)

- here it is.

 

post-7-0-04512200-1458713809.png

 

NE

 

The EURO doesn't have the 1" ice accumulations this time around has a band of 0.25" from Waterloo to Rochester, NY and another north of the GTA to Ottawa.

 

post-7389-0-76795000-1458714234_thumb.jp

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Didn't your area over toward GTA have a very bad ice storm recently too. I want to say a couple Christmases ago.

Was just south of here by about 35-45 miles I think we ended up with a few inches of snow and some mix nothing to noteworthy.

Gem has little to no freezing rain anywhere in the area but it also has the front more ne to sw oriented vs east to west so it allows more of the area to warm up. Maybe its just a feeling but with any of these early spring setups I always look for the colder solution to be the right way to go.

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EURO pushes the front to Kankakee to Lacon, IL by 7am and parks it there for the morning.

 

Some ice back to the west.

 

post-7389-0-95432200-1458714653_thumb.jp

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EURO pushes the front to Kankakee to Lacon, IL by 7am and parks it there for the morning.

Some ice back to the west.

attachicon.gif0zEURO ice.jpg

Good call on the farther south front position tomorrow, favored that in wind and temp grids during the daytime tomorrow on the evening update I did for LOT.

I'm still skeptical of any ice in northern IL, even northwest where that Eurowx map shows it. Surface temps on the 00z Euro are colder but still right around freezing along with dewpoints right around freezing. Given very stout warm nose aloft from 925 mb and up, would want to see lower dewpoints to be concerned for ice.

Regarding any snow potential for far southern WI and northern IL with secondary deformation axis Thursday afternoon, looks like a very narrow window during mid afternoon with forcing and saturation. Wouldn't rule out some decent brief rates whereever the defo band pivots across. However, considering mild sfc and temps aloft as late as 18z and time of day, the snow maps showing a few inches look too bullish to me. Would think maybe some minor (up to a few tenths) slushy accums on colder/grassy surfaces at most.

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SPC pushed the slight area pretty far into Illinois.

VsUMkRK.png

 

HRRR is also pushing up the temperatures tomorrow a bit on both sides of the front compared to GFS and NAM.

WXA3Oro.png

 

From SPC D1:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1230 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX TO WRN IL...   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SCNTRL TX TO SRN IA...   ...SUMMARY...   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO   WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS WHERE A   TORNADO OR TWO...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  A FEW   SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO   EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS.   ...DISCUSSION...   INTENSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH   PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS 90-100KT 500MB SPEED   MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SERN KS BY 24/00Z.  IN   RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE   I-70 CORRIDOR TO A POSITION JUST WEST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO BY   LATE AFTERNOON.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 60F SFC DEW POINTS   WILL ADVANCE NWD INTO ERN OK/AR AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL DRYLINE THAT IS   EXPECTED TO INITIATE CONVECTION.   WHILE WARM ADVECTION WILL FOCUS ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT   ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD...STRONG CAPPING SHOULD   RETARD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD   WHEN COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEAKEN THE INHIBITING LAYER.    LATEST THINKING IS STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL BE NOTED   BEHIND THE DRYLINE WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 9   C/KM.  WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC   IT APPEARS TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AFTER 22Z WITHIN   A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  LATEST   SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF   1000 J/KG WILL EXTEND ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE INTO NWRN AR BY PEAK   HEATING.  HOWEVER...STRONG COOLING ALOFT AFTER DARK WILL ALLOW AIR   MASS TO DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MO INTO WRN IL.  WHILE   SUPERCELLS MAY INITIALLY BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF MO...CONVECTION IS   EXPECTED TO BE MORE ROBUST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SFC LOW THAT SHOULD TRACK TO NEAR   UIN BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.  A TORNADO OR TWO...LARGE HAIL AND   DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TX...CONSIDERABLY LESS FORCING WILL BE NOTED   ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES INTO SCNTRL TX WEDNESDAY.    STRONG CAPPING WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING ALONG THE   BOUNDARY UNTIL AFTER DARK WHEN PROFILES COOL ALOFT.  WHILE   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WEAK   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND FRONTAL FORCING MAY RESULT IN LINEAR/MULTI-CELL   CONVECTION BEING THE PRIMARY MODE.  HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT WITH   THIS ACTIVITY.   ..DARROW/BUNTING.. 03/23/2016

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Looks like I'll be in for a bit of an ice storm tonight. Seeing consensus on almost all the short range models for at least 1/2 inch of ice, up to 1" on some runs.

 

Higher end models seem to think we'll hold on to below zero temperatures into the daytime tomorrow as the bulk of precip moves through. That remains to be seen IMO but I think overnight there's quite a good chance to see close to a half inch of ice.
 

Will post pics of course ;)

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Light snow here already. A little surprised that the column saturated already. Dry air was supposed to be take longer to overcome.

Light snow here as well.  

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Looks like I'll be in for a bit of an ice storm tonight. Seeing consensus on almost all the short range models for at least 1/2 inch of ice, up to 1" on some runs.

 

Higher end models seem to think we'll hold on to below zero temperatures into the daytime tomorrow as the bulk of precip moves through. That remains to be seen IMO but I think overnight there's quite a good chance to see close to a half inch of ice.

 

Will post pics of course ;)

 

You may be in for trouble where you are.  We drove up to Fergus and thru Guelph on the way home on Monday, and a noticed a sizeable drop in temp from the GTA.   Locally, I'm hoping for a minimal amt of freezing rain.   Seen the results of ice storms in the past,  and it's not pretty.

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Sprinkling here. I see the f-gen band was south of the EURO.

 

Front made it all the way to the north side of Peoria to Watseka IL.

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Anybody have some good ice accumulation maps? I'm getting quite worried here now, the meteocentre one I usually look at shows a blob of 1.5" ice accretion just 30 miles to my southwest on the 12z NAM...

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Looks like I'll be in for a bit of an ice storm tonight. Seeing consensus on almost all the short range models for at least 1/2 inch of ice, up to 1" on some runs.

 

Higher end models seem to think we'll hold on to below zero temperatures into the daytime tomorrow as the bulk of precip moves through. That remains to be seen IMO but I think overnight there's quite a good chance to see close to a half inch of ice.

 

Will post pics of course ;)

 

We're right in the bullseye. 2cm/0.78" of ice in our warning!

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You got a really nice view Gaylord.

 

Temps are 3-4° under HRRR, and NAM guidance around Madison, so that could play up the sleet more. Evaporative cooling doing some work.

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NAM builds some decent CAPE tomorrow, which is a change from earlier runs.  Should note that the GFS is much less bullish once again.

 

 

post-14-0-77779100-1458748901_thumb.gif

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Thanks! My family and I were fortunate enough to find a great house and a bunch of land up here on the ridge. Moved from the Gaylord NWS office to La Crosse back in September. The weather up here (about 700 feet above the valley floor) is just awesome...always windy and colder than down below. 

 

Grass is covered now. Agree about temps being a little on the cooler side. No real surprise given the strength of that high and airmass the past few days up across southern Canada. Down to 29° here at the house.

 

post-1166-0-72315400-1458749163_thumb.jp

 

You got a really nice view Gaylord.

 

Temps are 3-4° under HRRR, and NAM guidance around Madison, so that could play up the sleet more. Evaporative cooling doing some work.

 

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