Geos Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 That secondary area is a challenge, especially as you get toward the WI border and down into IL. Looks like it could snow hard. cyclone's area looking decent on the 12 km NAM. Definitely a challenge. I think all models have it right now. As far as the NAM guidance temps, they have been running around 2° too warm all day. Could make all the difference tomorrow. Colder mid levels advect in pretty quickly mid afternoon. Current SLP. Heading towards MCI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 If we had more cold air, or this was a few weeks back we'd have a shot at a few inches here with that 2nd deform. Looks like we could see a brief period of wet snow at the tail end, but not expecting much, if any accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 With under performing temps feeling good about seeing a little snow tomorrow. Down to 34.5° now. 0.11" of rain. Winds gusting up near 30 mph now. MKE now at freezing. Here was the GFS. Low track is now where the EURO was at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 If we had more cold air, or this was a few weeks back we'd have a shot at a few inches here with that 2nd deform. Looks like we could see a brief period of wet snow at the tail end, but not expecting much, if any accum. Even more kindly Likely the gratif heights wil would be a bIt lower with the boundary Layer further South with you getting a major snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Weak bow echo heading towards QC to Galesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Weak bow echo heading towards QC to Galesburg Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Just heard some thunder. Should get a decent downpour in the next half hour. Only 38 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Is it just me or does this system look pretty odd in regards to precip? Look how thin the deform axis is. Yeah it's stout along that deform axis, but it's very narrow. Hardly any precip outside of the deformation, fronto, and narrow convective axis. Seems like there should be a considerable amount more precip than what's on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Nice downpour with frequent lightning, and some decent boomage. Not bad for 38 degrees. Picked up 0.17" fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 I heard one little rumble as the main rain band moved in, otherwise it was just solid rain and good wind. So far I've picked up 0.63", including the few hundredths that fell this morning. As cyclone noted, there's not much outside of the narrow bands, so there may not be much more falling here. The latest model trend is to take the secondary defo precip mostly southeast of here tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 I had about 6" of cement earlier, pretty much as modeled. Tree branches are already hanging low from the cement, luckily it looks like the heaviest freezing rain is going to miss me 10 miles north or so now. It would have been days without power if I got the 1/2" or more ice the nam was forecasting on top of this cement snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 New HRRR continues to indicate rain as dominate precip type for northern IL through 19z tomorrow. Nice secondary deform, but unfortunately for those that want snow it looks like more wind driven 34-36 degree rain. The 30-90 minute burst of wet snow at the end of the deformation band could be a bit of a consolation though. Might look pretty legit for a brief period of time, despite the fact that it won't stick. EDIT: Up to 0.23". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 New HRRR continues to indicate rain as dominate precip type for northern IL through 19z tomorrow. Nice secondary deform, but unfortunately for those that want snow it looks like more wind driven 34-36 degree rain. The 30-90 minute burst of wet snow at the end of the deformation band could be a bit of a consolation though. Might look pretty legit for a brief period of time, despite the fact that it won't stick. EDIT: Up to 0.23". HRRR has been running a couple degree too warm around here. EURO has been pretty good with temps so far here. EURO shows steady temps for both of us tonight and then falling off heading towards 18z. Optimistic that I'll see the grass covered by dinner time tomorrow. New map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Reports of thundersnow coming out of N Central Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 HRRR has been running a couple degree too warm around here. EURO has been pretty good with temps so far here. EURO shows steady temps for both of us tonight and then falling off heading towards 18z. Optimistic that I'll see the grass covered by dinner time tomorrow. New map. 0z_euro_Thur032416.jpg Nice. That Euro would fit seasonal trends. Shows 5" for you, 0.5" for here lol. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Reports of thundersnow coming out of N Central Wisconsin GoSaints and DLL have been getting blasted for awhile. And you're right Cyclone the system seems to be lacking moisture/a wider deformation band. I thought by now we would see more moisture streaming in from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Nice. That Euro would fit seasonal trends. Shows 5" for you, 0.5" for here lol. Gotta love it.HahaI hate this whole stupid "snow season." We can always hope for a surprise from the defo band, right?"........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 21z will be the time to watch here and 22z for the Muskegon area. 850 freezing line sweeps in pretty quickly. Between 30-32° across the Milwaukee metro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Couple solid boomers overhead right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 What were you expecting? I guess about 2" of snow and about six hours of freezing rain. Was never expecting December 2013 redux. Freezing rain falling right now. Up earlier as I know this is likely going to be a longer than usual commute. Hopefully the Scarborough RT doesn't break down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Getting very slick out there. T/td of 29/26 as a band of moderate/heavy ZR approaches from the SW. HRRR has most of it tapering off by 10-11am but by then 0.5" of QPF falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Getting very slick out there. T/td of 29/26 as a band of moderate/heavy ZR approaches from the SW. HRRR has most of it tapering off by 10-11am but by then 0.5" of QPF falls. I haven't had any ZR here yet. Been all IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 North of Lake Geneva driving north through Springfield, WI. Flakes mixing in with the rain. 34 on car gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 really nice soaker taking shape for chicago today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 36 and drizzle in Waukesha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 HRRR says the secondary defo isn't happening in any meaningful way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Models really **** the bed with the frontogenetic band yesterday. 0.04" precip recorded at YYZ. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 lol winter 2015/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 HRRR has been running a couple degree too warm around here. EURO has been pretty good with temps so far here. EURO shows steady temps for both of us tonight and then falling off heading towards 18z. Optimistic that I'll see the grass covered by dinner time tomorrow. New map. 0z_euro_Thur032416.jpg Is it supposed to snow more today in Iowa? Reports as of now arnt even half that death band on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 euro was so bad with this event dgex level bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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