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AlaskaETC

Winter 2016-2017 Speculation and Discussion

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I'd be totally happy with a cold Dec-Jan with 15" and nothing after.

I hope we run 3 straight +10's with no snow and a historic blizzard forecast that completely busts within 6 hours of starting.

I can take it because the entertainment value of some of these people going completely off the cliff would be priceless.

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I hope we run 3 straight +10's with no snow and a historic blizzard forecast that completely busts within 6 hours of starting.

I can take it because the entertainment value of some of these people going completely off the cliff would be priceless.

 

The only time this weird hobby got to me was March 2013. That whole stretch from Feb 2011 through March 2013 is probably as bad as it can get. 

 

After the last 3 winters, a winter like you describe wouldn't bug me at all. 2-3 in a row would though...haha

 

As long as it's cold on, and around, Christmas then I'd be thrilled with that..

 

Even Dec 2013 having some snow was still annoying to a degree. A Nina is looking more and more likely and should be considering the typical nina following nino events over time. Latest euro plumes don't look threatening yet for a mod/strong event. We'll probably have a good handle on how strong in just a few short months. Hopefully the June update coming up doesn't start tanking things in the LR

 

ps2png-atls05-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119

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Regarding the cold holiday season, I'm pretty sure it was 89-90 when I was living in Burtonsville that it snowed Thanksgiving evening and there was snow cover just about every day up until Christmas from one after another clipper system. It was cold too. I was skating on Rocky Gorge in mid December (I know. Very stupid). We didn't get a big snow event, but four or five 1-3" storms made that holiday season memorable.

I just looked it up and it was the winter of '89-90, and BWI got 14" from turkey day to the end of December. Even DCA got over a foot. Maybe I'm wrong about there not being a southern storm during that stretch, but I'm pretty sure it was just a series of good clippers. Then January rolled around and it turned the other way for the rest of the winter.

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CFS2 slowly morphing into a NINA look with BN temps in Canada (and expanding south over the past few weeks fwiw) and AN precip to our west

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd6.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd6.gif

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CFS2 slowly morphing into a NINA look with BN temps in Canada (and expanding south over the past few weeks fwiw) and AN precip to our west

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd6.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd6.gif

Have you seen the crazy behavior of the QBO as of late? HM has been tweeting a lot about it, as have a few others. I posted on it in the New England forum, but the way it's been progressing this year has been unprecedented. Instead of ending up with a -QBO this winter, as everyone expected, some experts are now suggesting it may actually go positive again come fall. If that turns out to be right, the way the QBO phases are predicted will have to change

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Have you seen the crazy behavior of the QBO as of late? HM has been tweeting a lot about it, as have a few others. I posted on it in the New England forum, but the way it's been progressing this year has been unprecedented. Instead of ending up with a -QBO this winter, as everyone expected, some experts are now suggesting it may actually go positive again come fall. If that turns out to be right, the way the QBO phases are predicted will have to change

I'd never question nor dispute what HM has to say, probably because I am incapable (lol), but looking back at past qbo monthly values at this link indicates a few studders when qbo is shifting from west to east is not that uncommon. IMHO, I think we'll have to wait until July's value before getting concerned about another westerly qbo this winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

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Posted this in the NYC forum as well, the PDO is beginning a major phase change to negative. We are loosing the +PDO that has been in place the last several years, not a surprise though given the healthy Niña developing (ENSO forces the PDO). We should see at least a neutral PDO by the end of summer, and it should flip to a -PDO this fall. Here are some good tweets illustrating this: https://mobile.twitter.com/WeatherInTheHud/status/745699808992759808 https://mobile.twitter.com/WeatherInTheHud/status/745696618008166400

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Posted this in the NYC forum as well, the PDO is beginning a major phase change to negative. We are loosing the +PDO that has been in place the last several years, not a surprise though given the healthy Niña developing (ENSO forces the PDO). We should see at least a neutral PDO by the end of summer, and it should flip to a -PDO this fall. Here are some good tweets illustrating this: https://mobile.twitter.com/WeatherInTheHud/status/745699808992759808 https://mobile.twitter.com/WeatherInTheHud/status/745696618008166400

HM tweet chain on the PDO: https://mobile.twitter.com/antmasiello/status/745008488775036928

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I would wait and see what other pros say besides hm on the pdo.

Other experts besides him have also chimed in on the PDO. I posted the links to the other tweets and graphics in the post right above the one you quoted

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Posted this in the NYC forum as well, the PDO is beginning a major phase change to negative. We are loosing the +PDO that has been in place the last several years, not a surprise though given the healthy Niña developing (ENSO forces the PDO). We should see at least a neutral PDO by the end of summer, and it should flip to a -PDO this fall. Here are some good tweets illustrating this: https://mobile.twitter.com/WeatherInTheHud/status/745699808992759808 https://mobile.twitter.com/WeatherInTheHud/status/745696618008166400

I never heard of these people on there.

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This will be like the false start on super nino the year before the super nino. Neutralish/weak nina?

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This will be like the false start on super nino the year before the super nino. Neutralish/weak nina?

 

It seems to be trending that way. Makes sense. This was a weird super nino. The expanse of warmth all over the Pac was pretty much gigantic. Unlike any of the recent mod+ or strong ninos. 

 

Quite a difference between July of 98 and July this year:

 

anomnight.7.7.1998.gif

 

 

anomnight.7.7.2016.gif

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Boom this winter. Bust next.

 

My early prediction is a weak nina loaded up with blocking due to the very quiet sun activity. SS will be active early due to a nino hangover. Dec-Jan will be iceboxes with tons of snow and a white christmas is a lock. 

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My early prediction is a weak nina loaded up with blocking due to the very quiet sun activity. SS will be active early due to a nino hangover. Dec-Jan will be iceboxes with tons of snow and a white christmas is a lock. 

 

Just what I was thinking. Quiet sun while nursing a hangover. I'm in.

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My early prediction is a weak nina loaded up with blocking due to the very quiet sun activity. SS will be active early due to a nino hangover. Dec-Jan will be iceboxes with tons of snow and a white christmas is a lock. 

one guy on twitter did an analog map forecast and had us at -2 for the winter with above average precip. looked like a weak nino type year. 2017-18 might be the worst winter of all time though. We might not even see frost

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It seems to be trending that way. Makes sense. This was a weird super nino. The expanse of warmth all over the Pac was pretty much gigantic. Unlike any of the recent mod+ or strong ninos. 

 

Quite a difference between July of 98 and July this year:

 

anomnight.7.7.1998.gif

 

 

anomnight.7.7.2016.gif

Ocean's all so warm all the time now these days. But in general the models seem to overdo the swings. Last year we had a running start so it was more apparent something big was coming even if it fell a bit shy of expectations.  I remember thinking for a while we might even pull another Nino this year but that's pretty rare in the record as a progression.  Jet weirding.

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Boom this winter. Bust next.

We don't have bad winters anymore. Sadly..

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one guy on twitter did an analog map forecast and had us at -2 for the winter with above average precip. looked like a weak nino type year. 2017-18 might be the worst winter of all time though. We might not even see frost

 

Give me a cold T-day, snowy Dec., and a White Christmas this year and I'll happily take the non-winter of 2017 - 18.

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My early prediction is a weak nina loaded up with blocking due to the very quiet sun activity. SS will be active early due to a nino hangover. Dec-Jan will be iceboxes with tons of snow and a white christmas is a lock. 

 

What do you think of 1983/84 as an analog? Similar solar cycle and ENSO setup?

 

That was also the region's coldest Christmas ever.

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