Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 First time starting a thread, now it really won't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Thanks, j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Is this for the weekend snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Is this for the weekend snow? Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 powderfreak, on 18 Feb 2016 - 1:55 PM, said:Is this for the weekend snow? I think this is for the storm on Sunday night-Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 All 12z guidance (with the lone exception of the GFS) has what appears to be advisory snows for interior SNE..prob from an area near PSM-MHT-AQW S to about HFD-SFZ line...just south and east of that polygon is more questionable due to BL issues at the onset, and to the north the precip becomes lighter. Given this is still 4 days out, it could easily end up north or south of this area. But as currently modeled...there would probably be a nice stripe just north of the vort track that could be on the higher end of advisory snowfall. These can sometimes surprise...a little extra boost as it hits the waters south of LI and develops a little more moisture inflow, so we'll have to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Haha huge brain fart...I was thinking today was the 20th for some reason when I saw the thread and was thinking the 22nd would be Saturday. Carry on lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Is this for the weekend snow? It can be for whatever snow you fantasize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 All 12z guidance (with the lone exception of the GFS) has what appears to be advisory snows for interior SNE..prob from an area near PSM-MHT-AQW S to about HFD-SFZ line...just south and east of that polygon is more questionable due to BL issues at the onset, and to the north the precip becomes lighter. Given this is still 4 days out, it could easily end up north or south of this area. But as currently modeled...there would probably be a nice stripe just north of the vort track that could be on the higher end of advisory snowfall. These can sometimes surprise...a little extra boost as it hits the waters south of LI and develops a little more moisture inflow, so we'll have to watch. NAM is a no-go too. But recall the last even that they held out on an island, the "anafrontal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 NAM is a no-go too. But recall the last even that they held out on an island, the "anafrontal". Nevermind I was looking at the wrong frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 NAM is a no-go too. But recall the last even that they held out on an island, the "anafrontal". Yeah it looks bad on the NAM...I didn't even consider that model since the bulk of the event would be past the NAM's model range...but extrapolating out another frame or two would be a non-event for sure. I also didn't check the Frenchie....but JMA and NAVGEM are on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 It can be for whatever snow you fantasizeBlue balls.Anyway, could almost see where this event becomes the main show next week? If it goes anymore robust than the 12z ECM, it could be a better threat for some than whatever happens Wed/Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Nevermind I was looking at the wrong frame. Nah you're right, it's a non-event on the NAM, but beyond the model range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Nah you're right, it's a non-event on the NAM, but beyond the model range. Right, I thought it looked supressed and weak at 78 but at 84 it was looking more healthy than the GFS at least. And yeah, NAM at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Blue balls. Anyway, could almost see where this event becomes the main show next week? If it goes anymore robust than the 12z ECM, it could be a better threat for some than whatever happens Wed/Thur. A scenario the lowly GGEM has been hinting at. Navgem joined its fan club today at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Some of the GEFS members actually have this turning into a much larger system and being the main show...like starting it as more overrunning on Monday and then the bulk of the storm comes Mon night and early Tues...we haven't seen any OP models do this, but more than one ensemble member has been showing that type of evolution on multiple GEFS runs. Not sure about the Euro ensembles since I don't view the individual members on those. So there's probably a low probability anyway of this becoming something bigger and more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Bonus is it falls at night. Daytime event would be tough for BL after Sunday's 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Some of the GEFS members actually have this turning into a much larger system and being the main show...like starting it as more overrunning on Monday and then the bulk of the storm comes Mon night and early Tues...we haven't seen any OP models do this, but more than one ensemble member has been showing that type of evolution on multiple GEFS runs. Not sure about the Euro ensembles since I don't view the individual members on those. So there's probably a low probability anyway of this becoming something bigger and more widespread. The Navgem sort of has that evolution, doesn't really blow up the first system but it is a decent hit and the second wave is well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Let's just vote for a cutter and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Let's just vote for a cutter and be done with it. For the 22nd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 For the 22nd? Yes. Actually I'm j/k, but really, it's hard to hold out hope for anything white given our track record. I've got a landscaper coming tomorrow to discuss clear cutting some trees. If it doesn't snow, might as well get an early start on spring projects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Let's just vote for a cutter and be done with it. That one ain't cutting at all. More likely miss you to the south by far over missing west, which I'm sure you'll be pleased to hear judging by the original post, haha.I like these systems that are more surprise in that it's not a day 10 threat we've been following. At least someone should get some snow out of this winter even if it's south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro ensembles are very similar to the OP, just probably a touch south...which isn't surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 This one is giving the GFS fits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 This one is giving the GFS fits New Euro looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 New Euro looks nice Away from coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Away from coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Little critters that bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Not that it means much but srefs look alot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Something strange that ncep guidance can't pick this one uo while foreigners can . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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