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Feb 5th Event


nj2va

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What did the EURO show again?  1-2?

Generally an inch for just east of DC, and inch or so for BWI. It had the most in S MD and on the eastern shore, 3-4, with 5 in lower DE and SBY. GFS has less than an inch until you get up into extreme NE MD, where there is an inch. Basically not much till you get into extreme SE PA and E central NJ. It is the worst of all the models for our general area.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

538 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

DCZ001-MDZ006-011-013-014-016-507-508-VAZ054-057-050645-

/O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.160205T0500Z-160205T1500Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-

PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-NORTHWEST HARFORD-

SOUTHEAST HARFORD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-KING GEORGE-

538 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

10 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER 1 AM.

* HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING SNOW AFTER 1 AM.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3 AM. A

PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7

AM...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES FRIDAY MID-MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY DURING THE

MORNING COMMUTE.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER-TO-MID 30S...EXCEPT AROUND 30 NEAR THE

MASON-DIXON LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW

COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
550 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY PASSING BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON ADDITIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE COMING IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REACHING
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NW. THIS WILL BEGIN TO FALL INTO OUR ONE
INCH DURING RUSH HOUR CRITERIA. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES NEARER TO
I-95. HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY UP TO DC AND BALTIMORE PROPER AT
THIS TIME.

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20z HRRR has 2-3 much of 95 from DC to Balt.

These events can be fun. We seem to luck out in them more than others.

Yes
i was tempted to start a thread on it the other day but I jumped ship as of last night so today has been interesting. Could still see a fail but gotta like trends into the end.
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The last 2 runs of the HRRR went farther east with the precip shield... 22z doesn't get it past DC proper.

 

It will probably be further NW than modeled...cutoff super sharp...we had an event like this in late January 2014.  It was a much colder and suppressed event and still made it up here...not a great analog of course...

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One can hope that the sharp cutoff shoftens.

Is a comparison to the little event the weekend before the blizzard valid? That one also trended NW at the last moment and even then the precip shield was larger than short term models showed.

 

came from a different direction...We'll at least see some snow TV I think...that's pretty cool I guess.

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HRRR gave me 20" from 4 AM to 10 PM saturday in the blizzard.  :D

I don't think its strength is this kind of thing. It's like the NAM where it should mainly be used for convection etc. Probably strongest in winter storms if you're more in the heart of it. But they both do better on timing and the edge than given credit for. We've been here before though where it's shown less than other models only to catch on later. We should know quite a bit by midnight. If you're not seeing or about to see precip around then you're probably in trouble.

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