CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Really hoping the RAP/HRRR/NAM/GFS/RGEM aren't overplaying their hand here You forgot the Euro in there. And the GFS kinda sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Really hoping the RAP/HRRR/NAM/GFS/RGEM aren't overplaying their hand here Most guidance has trended better much of the day. eta: It's like a dejavu of Raven's system. Where is he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Most guidance has trended better much of the day. eta: It's like a dejavu of Raven's system. Where is he? Yeah except with actual accumulation this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 You forgot the Euro in there. And the GFS kinda sucks. What did the EURO show again? 1-2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 What did the EURO show again? 1-2? According to DT's map, yes eta: wxbell shows .1 to 1" across I-95 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 So whens a good time to set an alarm to and wake up just to check if its snowing? 2 AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 What did the EURO show again? 1-2? Generally an inch for just east of DC, and inch or so for BWI. It had the most in S MD and on the eastern shore, 3-4, with 5 in lower DE and SBY. GFS has less than an inch until you get up into extreme NE MD, where there is an inch. Basically not much till you get into extreme SE PA and E central NJ. It is the worst of all the models for our general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 538 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 DCZ001-MDZ006-011-013-014-016-507-508-VAZ054-057-050645- /O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.160205T0500Z-160205T1500Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-KING GEORGE- 538 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER 1 AM. * HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING SNOW AFTER 1 AM. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3 AM. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES FRIDAY MID-MORNING. * IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER-TO-MID 30S...EXCEPT AROUND 30 NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 20z HRRR has 2-3 much of 95 from DC to Balt. These events can be fun. We seem to luck out in them more than others.[/quote Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC550 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016.SYNOPSIS...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARYBOUNDARY PASSING BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHTINTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. COASTAL LOWPRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHERLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...BASED ON ADDITIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE COMING IN DURING THE LATEAFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REACHINGA LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NW. THIS WILL BEGIN TO FALL INTO OUR ONEINCH DURING RUSH HOUR CRITERIA. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES NEARER TOI-95. HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY UP TO DC AND BALTIMORE PROPER ATTHIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 20z HRRR has 2-3 much of 95 from DC to Balt. These events can be fun. We seem to luck out in them more than others. Yesi was tempted to start a thread on it the other day but I jumped ship as of last night so today has been interesting. Could still see a fail but gotta like trends into the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Sad thing is many winters I'd be excited. But after hecs I barely care. Pad pad pad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The last 2 runs of the HRRR went farther east with the precip shield... 22z doesn't get it past DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looking at radar. I'd say definitely a miss for west of the bay. I leave my faith in the models tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The last 2 runs of the HRRR went farther east with the precip shield... 22z doesn't get it past DC proper. It will probably be further NW than modeled...cutoff super sharp...we had an event like this in late January 2014. It was a much colder and suppressed event and still made it up here...not a great analog of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think we'll either boom or bust in the city. I could definitely see a whiff still. 2" or so IMBY or a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looking at radar. I'd say definitely a miss for west of the bay. I leave my faith in the models tho. It's a little early still. Should see it start to lift NW after 8 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Surface low is just starting to get goingin response to the approaching trough. Give it time for it to deepen and push the precip back. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The last 2 runs of the HRRR went farther east with the precip shield... 22z doesn't get it past DC proper. 23Z still coming in looks better early eta: good precip shield, but very brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 RAP.png We will take what we can get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 23z h triple r was no good here basically same as 22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 RAP has 0.1" for Tenleytown and 0.25" for Anacostia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 23z h triple r was no good here basically same as 22z HRRR gave me 20" from 4 AM to 10 PM saturday in the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm out. But yay for folks east of DC. Never look at local news, but caught NBC with an inch or less out here. Ummm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 23z h triple r was no good here basically same as 22zIdk how good that thing is. Did fine in the blizzard, but I think the ngm would have nailed that too. Anyway, whenever anyone posts the name I always think to myself the whor_, whor_, whor_. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 RAP has 0.1" for Tenleytown and 0.25" for Anacostia... One can hope that the sharp cutoff shoftens. Is a comparison to the little event the weekend before the blizzard valid? That one also trended NW at the last moment and even then the precip shield was larger than short term models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 One can hope that the sharp cutoff shoftens. Is a comparison to the little event the weekend before the blizzard valid? That one also trended NW at the last moment and even then the precip shield was larger than short term models showed. came from a different direction...We'll at least see some snow TV I think...that's pretty cool I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 HRRR gave me 20" from 4 AM to 10 PM saturday in the blizzard. I don't think its strength is this kind of thing. It's like the NAM where it should mainly be used for convection etc. Probably strongest in winter storms if you're more in the heart of it. But they both do better on timing and the edge than given credit for. We've been here before though where it's shown less than other models only to catch on later. We should know quite a bit by midnight. If you're not seeing or about to see precip around then you're probably in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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