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BuffaloWeather

Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!

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You know its a bad year when Perrysburg is only at 137.7" through almost March 1st and Holiday Valley is at 111".

Out of curiosity I looked at where KBUF is for the season... 47.7". Which is well above lowest all time, but we need 8.8" to be out of the lowest five winters for snowfall. In an ordinary March, that would be little problem, but this year it may be hard to nickel and dime our way out of the bottom five.

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Out of curiosity I looked at where KBUF is for the season... 47.7". Which is well above lowest all time, but we need 8.8" to be out of the lowest five winters for snowfall. In an ordinary March, that would be little problem, but this year it may be hard to nickel and dime our way out of the bottom five.

 

http://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10

 

6 out of the 10 lowest were before they moved the recording station from the waterfront to the airport in 1940. The lowest on record technically was just a few years ago 36.7" in 11-12.

 

http://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow

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Euro is on board for a pretty good hit. All models show almost a warning event for Upstate. The event starts in 3-4 days so it's getting within range.

Yep, good trends on the 12Z model runs.  Let's see if it holds through tomorrow though.  A high end advisory/low end warning event would be nice to see run right down the I-90 corridor so we all catch a piece.  

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I just got the Buffalo Blizzard Book in the mail. I did not realize it was hardcover and 330 pages long. Thanks for letting me know about this book, I have lots of reading to do!! This will help me put together the top 20 LES snowstorm montage and top 10 synoptic storm montage this summer on my youtube channel. Maybe Wolfie you could do one off Ontario so I can add to my youtube collection. ;)

 

There is a snowfall table that goes back to 1858 in here!

 

1866-1867 had 148.5", I wonder what event happened that year. This is the greatest book ever! I get to weenie myself out in LES history. ^_^

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Mid-week still looks like an ADK special to me, though I hope we can nudge it slightly east to get the rest of Eastern NY in the better snows too.  As is, the latest GFS would still be my heaviest snowfall this winter

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I'm getting more excited about the midweek event...the high is back to the NW with a "neck of the ridge" E-SE to ON/QU. Unlike prior storms where the cold air was LEAVING, this one has the cold air come in or drawn in during the event. Here's what I posted on the WNYT station weather page for my discussion:
 

Expect another active week. Just like last weekend and mild weather this weekend will end on a mild note. Just like last week we're looking at another midweek storm threat followed by a blast of very cold air to close it out.

High pressure well to our south and a low pressure system and cold front to our west will provide a SW breeze bringing in some milder air for Sunday afternoon. With at least partly sunny skies expect afternoon temperatures from 50-55 from Albany and points south to 45-50 to the north. As the cold front gets closer Sunday night expect clouds to lower and thicken tomorrow night. Late at night some scattered rain (possibly mixed with wet snow over the Adirondacks) showers to develop. This shower threat will end during Monday morning with the cold front sliding to our east along with sunshine for the afternoon and slightly cooler weather, too. Afternoon highs for Monday in the lower to mid 40s (30s for folks across the Adirondacks).

 

Now we come to Tuesday-Wednesday (the beginning of March) and another threat for a midweek storm (have had a few of them this winter). Like the previous weeks' mid-week storm threats this one will be no different that is, it will be quite a challenge to forecast. It appears that this week's storm will be evolving in a slightly different way: colder air will be located to the NW and N of the region and its showing signs of moving over us. (The previous storms had the cold air to our northeast or east and moving AWAY from us.)

This week's storm based on forecast data from nearly all of our computer models is trending to our south and east, keeping us on the cold side and posing the potential for more in the way of wintry precipitation, including SNOW. Whether or not this is indeed the case will depend on the cold air making it over us. (Prior midweek storms tracked to our west placing us on the warm side of the systems.)

 

Right now this forecaster's confidence in the Tues-Wed time period is low and the forecast is subject to change. For now I am thinking we'll see rain on Tuesday especially from Albany south and east changing to snow at night into Wednesday morning. Areas north through northwest COULD see ALL snow or a wintry mix for a while through Wednesday morning.

Confidence increases in the forecast for the end of next week. Expect a shot of unseasonably cold air to return to the area.

Stay tuned to the latest forecasts over the next few days!

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I'm getting more excited about the midweek event...the high is back to the NW with a "neck of the ridge" E-SE to ON/QU. Unlike prior storms where the cold air was LEAVING, this one has the cold air come in or drawn in during the event. Here's what I posted on the WNYT station weather page for my discussion:

 

Expect another active week. Just like last weekend and mild weather this weekend will end on a mild note. Just like last week we're looking at another midweek storm threat followed by a blast of very cold air to close it out.

High pressure well to our south and a low pressure system and cold front to our west will provide a SW breeze bringing in some milder air for Sunday afternoon. With at least partly sunny skies expect afternoon temperatures from 50-55 from Albany and points south to 45-50 to the north. As the cold front gets closer Sunday night expect clouds to lower and thicken tomorrow night. Late at night some scattered rain (possibly mixed with wet snow over the Adirondacks) showers to develop. This shower threat will end during Monday morning with the cold front sliding to our east along with sunshine for the afternoon and slightly cooler weather, too. Afternoon highs for Monday in the lower to mid 40s (30s for folks across the Adirondacks).

 

Now we come to Tuesday-Wednesday (the beginning of March) and another threat for a midweek storm (have had a few of them this winter). Like the previous weeks' mid-week storm threats this one will be no different that is, it will be quite a challenge to forecast. It appears that this week's storm will be evolving in a slightly different way: colder air will be located to the NW and N of the region and its showing signs of moving over us. (The previous storms had the cold air to our northeast or east and moving AWAY from us.)

This week's storm based on forecast data from nearly all of our computer models is trending to our south and east, keeping us on the cold side and posing the potential for more in the way of wintry precipitation, including SNOW. Whether or not this is indeed the case will depend on the cold air making it over us. (Prior midweek storms tracked to our west placing us on the warm side of the systems.)

 

Right now this forecaster's confidence in the Tues-Wed time period is low and the forecast is subject to change. For now I am thinking we'll see rain on Tuesday especially from Albany south and east changing to snow at night into Wednesday morning. Areas north through northwest COULD see ALL snow or a wintry mix for a while through Wednesday morning.

Confidence increases in the forecast for the end of next week. Expect a shot of unseasonably cold air to return to the area.

Stay tuned to the latest forecasts over the next few days!

 

Thanks for the updates, we greatly appreciate the posts! The Euro looks much stronger through 72 hours.

 

sfcmslpconus.png

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Yea, that has been a theme tonight..Uk/ggem both west of 12z ..Unfortunately the euro is not running on wb right now..

 

It was a huge hit for WNY. It's less than 3 days away so this threat is starting to have credibility.

 

post-7389-0-42577100-1456640471.png

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Gotta say, I'm more enthused about the longer range in the GFS than another shot at a few inches of wet gruel...indications of a more spring like pattern and mild Temps in 2 weeks.

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Umm, you do realize you are addressing hyper, insane, winter enthusiast. Lol

This winter, if you want to call it that, pretty much was a fail. If it can't be done right, I'll kick it to the curb. ;)

00z GFS nice look for BUF and points NW...looks like a rinse and repeat of the previous "Storm Gruel" for CNY and ENY. Maybe even less front end snow in CNY. 850 low is shown near Toronto. Never a good sign.

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