Stash Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I think the UKIE is close to a somewhat icy situation for a little while out this way. Yeah even as it stands now, models have 'some' snow/ice at onset. More of an issue for the usual areas in northern/eastern NY and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Just have to make it through the cutter..Looks like an arctic front comes through next sat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Just have to make it through the cutter..Looks like an arctic front comes through next sat.. image.gif It will definitely be wintry later this week into next. I'd say 2-4" in the wrap around snows followed by Lake Advs. Then the clippers which I suspect Lake snow warnings easily along with synoptic lake enhanced snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 That system that cuts is going to have major temp issues with no cold air. It's going to have to create its own cold air. I bet whatever falls during the day will have major issues accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 That system that cuts is going to have major temp issues with no cold air. It's going to have to create its own cold air. I bet whatever falls during the day will have major issues accumulating. Gfs has an awful warm bias on 2m temps. Nw of the sfc low will be fine. Theyll be near freezing with moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 With a neutral or slightly negative nao...this is a big one for wny and cny. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Might as well break some records at this point right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Might as well break some records at this point right? I'd rather break the record than have a 3-6" snowfall at this point in the season, it'll be gone by the next afternoon anyways. It's been over 1 year since the last 2.0" snowfall here... why stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'd rather break the record than have a 3-6" snowfall at this point in the season, it'll be gone by the next afternoon anyways. It's been over 1 year since the last 2.0" snowfall here... why stop now. This satellite imagery taken at 1/24/16 sums it all up lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I mentioned elsewhere that both Richmond and Wallops Island, VA (On the SE tip of the Delmarva peninsula!!) have had more snow than KALB this year. Even living in CT from the late 70's through early 90's, I can only remember one winter that maybe rivals this one... This satellite imagery taken at 1/24/16 sums it all up lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yeah, it's been brutal for Eastern NY. In general when you lose Nov/Dec the winter needs to really hit a home run the rest of the winter to make up for that lost time. When you're at a top 5 warmest winter ever it's going to be tough to get a lot of snow. Whenever you hear an El Nino you usually can kiss winter goodbye. I was preparing for much worse than what I got this year. We had quite a few LES hits and a great synoptic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 I would take that GFS run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 GEFS are quite a bit SE from previous runs. GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GEFS, keeping hope alive. Lol. If Euro stays with Detroit storm I'm out on the synoptic watch. Could be interesting behind it. Especially hilly terrain south of buf. NWS spoke to that potential in their disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 GEFS, keeping hope alive. Lol. If Euro stays with Detroit storm I'm out on the synoptic watch. Could be interesting behind it. Especially hilly terrain south of buf. NWS spoke to that potential in their disco. Pretty huge SE bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 It would seem it tracks just SE of Buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Goes over Syracuse. 850's still north of the lakes. By huuuuge move I night direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 *huge move in right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 *huge move in right direction 5" for you Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 KALB special at the end of euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Pretty huge SE bump. I think both the GFS and the euro have been hinting at some decent WWA type snowfall after the low moves through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 OF LESSER CONCERN...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING CLOSE TABS ON...WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PCPN DURING THE INITIAL 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE EVENT...QPF OF ONE INCH OF RAIN...AND FINALLY ACCUMULATING SNOWS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SNOWFALL COULD EVENTUALLY PROVE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SOME AREAS...AS IT SHOULD BECOME LAKE ENHANCED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. AS THE EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL WRAP ITS WAY BACK ACROSS OUR REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING LAKE ENHANCED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW `FLAGS` WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS SCENARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Pretty classic Ottawa ice storm look to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I think both the GFS and the euro have been hinting at some decent WWA type snowfall after the low moves through.. FWIW, QPF on the 00Z Euro of 0.3-0.4" across most of western & northern NY as snow on the backside, with some lake enhancement possibilities, as the mid/upper low tracks NE toward Montreal. A somewhat unusual scenario, but worth watching, especially with the more southeasterly low tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 the evolution is very similar to the leap year storm aside from the lack of confluence to the ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Storm looks like a classic high wind event for Western ny. 60 70 MPHIL gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Storm looks like a classic high wind event for Western ny. 60 70 MPHIL gusts low is too close. DTW would be better for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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