BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 GEFS Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I was out on Peck Lake just north of Gloversville in a cabin in the So. ADK's for the 95 Labor Day Derecho. That was the most scary wx event I've been in. Could see lightning you could read a book by for an hour ahead of time. We all eventually got up around 2- 3 a.m. and just hoped a bunch of tall pines didn't come down on us, not to mention we were pretty sure a twister was about to air mail us to Kansas... Brian, you referenced "Labor Day".....that was in '98....this was the one in '95, which occurred in July.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Euro control agrees with the UK/gfs/euro..Starting to lose this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The euro is so far west we get dry slotted. Only about 1/4" of rain for southern Oswego co.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 6z gfs way west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Brian, you referenced "Labor Day".....that was in '98....this was the one in '95, which occurred in July.... We were camped on an island on Middle Saranac Lake. Our tent was staked and tied down. We had been camped on the island for several days and there was a squirrel that lived there. When we went to bed that night the squirrel was running around going ape ****, screaming, tearing up and down trees. We thought he had a psychotic break. I remember waking up at about 0500 feeling very warm and muggy.....and then noticing that I had woken to the sound of continuous thunder from the west. I re-staked the tent and wedged our canoe securely in the pines. Then the derecho came through like a freight train. Tall pines bent at impossible angles by the wind, with torrential rain and continuous lightning. We were both holding the poles of our tent and hoping not to get blown away. A few hours later the DEC Ranger who usually stopped to check permits and collect the camping fee went by on his boat but just waved and never stopped. Only later did we realize the utter devastation that had occurred and the unfortunate fatalities that accompanied it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 More rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Never read anything written in Boston. Their mouthbreathing accents give away their ignorance. Plus, it'll be a Blizzard for those dopes. Lol...you are really a big fan of SNE, huh? Yeah, like CNY said, the Labor Day event was '98, when people died at the state fair. I was back home for that one, and watched the massive supercell come off Lake Ontario that started it all. Damn storm threw the press box onto our track at SUNY Brockport; Delta was there for that one. In Fairport, we had some wind and trees down, but missed the real blowdowns by a mile or two, fortunately. In '95, I was in the thick of it, but fortunately facing the lake to the west, so even though most of the trees were gone, piled 20 feet high, none of them landed directly on the house we were staying in. Nightmarish stuff to wake up to that at 6 am. We went through the northern 'bookend' vortex, so there was a lull like the eye of a hurricane, lol. I remember the dewpoints were near 80 degrees that night. Did a study on both of those storms for my senior seminar paper at Brockport. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/sep71998page.htm http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul1995derechopage.htm#4th1995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 We were camped on an island on Middle Saranac Lake. Our tent was staked and tied down. We had been camped on the island for several days and there was a squirrel that lived there. When we went to bed that night the squirrel was running around going ape ****, screaming, tearing up and down trees. We thought he had a psychotic break. I remember waking up at about 0500 feeling very warm and muggy.....and then noticing that I had woken to the sound of continuous thunder from the west. I re-staked the tent and wedged our canoe securely in the pines. Then the derecho came through like a freight train. Tall pines bent at impossible angles by the wind, with torrential rain and continuous lightning. We were both holding the poles of our tent and hoping not to get blown away. A few hours later the DEC Ranger who usually stopped to check permits and collect the camping fee went by on his boat but just waved and never stopped. Only later did we realize the utter devastation that had occurred and the unfortunate fatalities that accompanied it. Holy crap dude...nice story. A tent was not the place to be that night. Fortunately I think Saranac was northeast of the real nastiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Lol...you are really a big fan of SNE, huh? Yeah, like CNY said, the Labor Day event was '98, when people died at the state fair. I was back home for that one, and watched the massive supercell come off Lake Ontario that started it all. Damn storm threw the press box onto our track at SUNY Brockport; Delta was there for that one. In Fairport, we had some wind and trees down, but missed the real blowdowns by a mile or two, fortunately. In '95, I was in the thick of it, but fortunately facing the lake to the west, so even though most of the trees were gone, piled 20 feet high, none of them landed directly on the house we were staying in. Nightmarish stuff to wake up to that at 6 am. We went through the northern 'bookend' vortex, so there was a lull like the eye of a hurricane, lol. I remember the dewpoints were near 80 degrees that night. Did a study on both of those storms for my senior seminar paper at Brockport. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/sep71998page.htm http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul1995derechopage.htm#4th1995 I sure was. The campus sustained extensive damage. I remember dorm Windows blowing in and peoples belongings getting sucked out of the room. It was pure chaos all over campus. The Lightning that preceded that storm is still the strongest and most continuous I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I sure was. The campus sustained extensive damage. I remember dorm Windows blowing in and peoples belongings getting sucked out of the room. It was pure chaos all over campus. The Lightning that preceded that storm is still the strongest and most continuous I've ever experienced. Nice! Sort of. Must've been crazy for those people in the high-rise dorms. A fun welcome to your freshman year as a meteorology major, anyway. I started in '99. They didn't fix the track until a couple years after I graduated. Sucked as a track athlete to never have a home meet. Now they have that huge state-of-the-art indoor facility. I spent my winters running the halls around the gymnastics center and past the ice arena. Those black mats would get nice and slick when people would open the doors and track snow in. I'm not bitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 That was a rough period of severe weather in NYS. We sustained some damage from that Labor Day event here in ENY, but that Spring was also when an F3 tornado ripped through Saratoga County. The 1995 event goes back further, but I believe that one had winds nearing 80mph at KALB. As far as next week's event goes, GFS jumped a few hundred miles East though still mostly rain for anyone in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 How about this warm up? 53 already, this sloppy pack is getting obliterated quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 More rain lol Yea I know but that's close enough to get me excited and it's not the shredded mess the last week of models were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 How about this warm up? 53 already, this sloppy pack is getting obliterated quickly! And the dewpoints are still subfreezing. Once those come up this snowpack will practically disappear in hours. I foresee bare ground by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 I could go for a nice derecho, I'm a bigger severe weenie than winter weather weenie I think. I need to go chasing this year for tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 How about this warm up? 53 already, this sloppy pack is getting obliterated quickly! Feels great outside! We need it to melt the remaining ice on lake erie before this comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 That was a rough period of severe weather in NYS. We sustained some damage from that Labor Day event here in ENY, but that Spring was also when an F3 tornado ripped through Saratoga County. The 1995 event goes back further, but I believe that one had winds nearing 80mph at KALB. As far as next week's event goes, GFS jumped a few hundred miles East though still mostly rain for anyone in this forum This page is good for tornado history in NYS. http://www.tornadoproject.com/alltorns/nytorn.htm http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/New-York/map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 That was a rough period of severe weather in NYS. We sustained some damage from that Labor Day event here in ENY, but that Spring was also when an F3 tornado ripped through Saratoga County. The 1995 event goes back further, but I believe that one had winds nearing 80mph at KALB. As far as next week's event goes, GFS jumped a few hundred miles East though still mostly rain for anyone in this forum Yeah, May 31st and then another one on June 2nd that was worse to the south, but had an F2 in Wyoming County. On the heels of the record El Nino and headed into moderate La Nina for the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yeah, May 31st and then another one on June 2nd that was worse to the south, but had an F2 in Wyoming County. On the heels of the record El Nino and headed into moderate La Nina for the upcoming winter. 1970 had an EF3 a block away from my in-laws house in Eden. There has been 6 EF-3s in history in WNY and 1 EF4. Lake erie really kills tornadic activity in summer around this area, but it happens once in a awhile. Central/Eastern NY fairs far better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I could go for a nice derecho, I'm a bigger severe weenie than winter weather weenie I think. I need to go chasing this year for tornados. I tried chasing by myself in western NY in spring/summers of 98 and 99, before the age of cell phones. The key is to keep your expectations low...really low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 I tried chasing by myself in western NY in spring/summers of 98 and 99, before the age of cell phones. The key is to keep your expectations low...really low Yeah I would never chase here. I would go out to southern Illinois, not to far of a drive. We had plans to do it last year with some Mets on the board, but it fell through. So hopefully this year! I did chase that 2006 tornado in Cheektowaga. I saw the funnel cloud and thats it though, it was really close to my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 1970 had an EF3 a block away from my in-laws house in Eden. There has been 6 EF-3s in history in WNY and 1 EF4. Lake erie really kills tornadic activity in summer around this area, but it happens once in a awhile. Central/Eastern NY fairs far better. That is something that I want no part of. I mean, sure from a distance, and chasing is cool, but anything like that coming near my house or the home of someone I know would just be awful. That does seem really unusual to have something that strong so close to Erie. Seems like there was another one near Angola at some point? I'm sure the lake breeze boundaries can help spin-ups, but I wouldn't think they would be particularly strong. Yeah, the Mohawk and Hudson valleys are the place to be, but that area inland from Lake Erie in Chautauqua & Cattaraugus does pretty well. One of the nastiest storms I ever saw was down around Alfred/Belfast in August of 1996. Yeah I would never chase here. I would go out to southern Illinois, not to far of a drive. We had plans to do it last year with some Mets on the board, but it fell through. So hopefully this year! I did chase that 2006 tornado in Cheektowaga. I saw the funnel cloud and thats it though, it was really close to my house. That sounds like a plan; I would've gone that way back in the day, if I wasn't just 18, naive and stupid with a short leash. I interned at the NWS in Paducah for a few years; that area up north of Carbondale/Marion, toward Mt Vernon is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 So back to current weather...is the EPS our only hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 So back to current weather...is the EPS our only hope? Nope!!! 12Z GGEM still provides love: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 So back to current weather...is the EPS our only hope? CMC offers some hope, though it seems to be trending toward a more full phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Being a snow lover this winter in central NY has been just like being a Bills fan and watching them play Brady the past 15 years. I've reached the point with both that no matter how good the set-up looks, or the seeming inevitability of victory, I am certain a way will be found to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 So back to current weather...is the EPS our only hope? At least its the best piece of guidance to have in your court lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 So back to current weather...is the EPS our only hope? GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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