wxsniss Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 0z Ukie about same, precipitation field maybe slightly northwest at 42h When does Tip's Uganda model come out again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Uncle made a move for a snowier further west solution. 12z 0z Burbank stinks. Remember when we got thrown out of the room at JJ Foleys when we were catcalling him for calling 1-3? Verification btw was 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Goodnite everyone. good debate tonight. im falling asleep so I should probably sign off. I hope we can all realize the power of the human mind. we can make it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 0z Ukie about same, precipitation field maybe slightly northwest at 42h When does Tip's Uganda model come out again? I thought it was fairly significantly better. qpf wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I thought it was fairly significantly better. qpf wise. That's a pretty decent bump NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I thought it was fairly significantly better. qpf wise. Agree it definitely was better, but the ticks are slight, mostly qpf throw back at 42hrs. 3-4" (7.5-10 mm) to Boston / coastal MA, previously scraping Cape 2-3" (5-7.5 mm) to ORH, previously limited to Cape I've been tongue-in-cheek with posts, but I do think there are hints we could tick our way to warning in Boston. I want to see Euro flinch a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think this is gonna be an improvement over 12z run... Through 18 hours, western Atlantic heights ticked northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Through 24 hours ~ 50-100 mile shift west in SLP position off SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Through 24 hours ~ 50-100 mile shift west in SLP position off SC That big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Similar qpf distribution to 12z through 54. About 0.25 to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Through 60 0.25 to 495. Continuous snow signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 How is it looking for S NH? Anything? That far of a shift west should benefit this area I would think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Definite tick northwest.... Through 60 hours qpf: 0.5" to Canal (previously was off shore) 0.4" to Boston (previously was to Nantucket) 0.3" to 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Definite tick northwest.... Through 60 hours qpf: 0.5" to Canal (previously was off shore) 0.4" to Boston (previously was to Nantucket) 0.3" to 495 Similar shift as the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Jerry I think game is still on, definite momentum for a more significant event, this was the Euro flinch I was hoping to see. I was too dismissive of Ukie. The trough is narrower, heights are greater over the Atlantic... if these trends continue overnight I wouldn't be surprised to see watches extended north for coastal MA by kickoff time Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Great PBP Sam and Jerry. Must ask MSLP... ty At 24 hours: 980 mb at ~ 76W 32N (~ 60-70 mile shift west) At 36 hours: 978 mb at ~ 69W 35N (~ 50 mile shift southwest) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The shortwave riding up the east wall of the longwave trough is a tough one to achieve given how far ahead the shortwave is. But it's not impossible to get it close enough for good snow. When you have that setup, the upper air divergence is much higher on the W edge than otherwise so this has a chance to extend back some precip. We absolutely need to see another bump west, but it won't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Jerry I think game is still on, definite momentum for a more significant event, this was the Euro flinch I was hoping to see. I was too dismissive of Ukie. The trough is narrower, heights are greater over the Atlantic... if these trends continue overnight I wouldn't be surprised to see watches extended north for coastal MA by kickoff time Sunday. Yeah I'm pretty optimistic for this one. Although walking the dog just now and my hood has alot more snow vs north Brookline I was thinking that snow can be a big pain in the tooches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking at 700mb it is much improved and there is a great banding look for E SNE. As usual, ignore qpf and role with the mid levels. 700mb fronto is what performed for us in snowzilla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Man, a lot to sort out behind the bigger storm. A lot of shots at snow immediately after with that trof. Hard to know in what fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 As things currently stand this is a perfect way to address the situation from BOX. Uncertainty is the key theme. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA444 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016MAZ005>007-012>017-020-RIZ001>008-072145-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-444 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERNMASSACHUSETTS...AND RHODE ISLAND..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.ONE OR TWO PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE LIKELY MONDAY ANDTUESDAY...WITH LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WHETHER WE WILL BE DEALING WITHNUISANCE LIGHT SNOW OR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AT THIS TIME.IN ADDITION...THERE IS LOW RISK FOR POCKETS OF MINOR FLOODINGALONG THE CAPE ANN COASTLINE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ONMONDAY..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 To clarify: There is approximately zero chance this trends into a blockbuster We are looking at multiple timeframes between Monday and Thursday that could provide snow The snowstorm's size will be considerably large when it gets to our latitude. It seems it could potentially provide accumulations back to about ORH and even more if it breaks correctly. The first storm on Monday could provide many a moderate snowfall if it trends that way in the next day. There could be impressive localized totals in coastal eastern massachusetts with the onshore flow and coastal front expected to develop. These localized maxes could provide substantial snowfall for people Cape Ann to the Canal. While the two storms are completely different, I could foresee a similar spread of snow from that event in this one The storms most intense rates will likely be confined in the OES regions of the area along the coastal front After the first storm passes there are several chances at snow for the entire SNE area but it remains to be seen whether or not we can formulate areas of steady snow or just off and on localized accums Probably won't be able to narrow down details of this system until some point tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 06z NAM 4km & 12km look like solid hits for eastern areas. SREFs still pretty solid on 03z run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lots of snow coming to a lot of places this week.All the way to Eduggles..We ain't done bumping west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Just seeing those overnight 4km and Rgem runs tells you it's not done coming. WSW will be back to ORH to Windham county in the afternoon package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The runs look closer to what I expect now. Someone could get a good amount of snow Monday into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Congrats guys, it's like watching the same movie over and over and over, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Just seeing those overnight 4km and Rgem runs tells you it's not done coming. WSW will be back to ORH to Windham county in the afternoon package BOX decided to bump the WSW's back to ORH this morning.Probably one more bump at 4:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The runs look closer to what I expect now. Someone could get a good amount of snow Monday into Tuesday. This has YBY in South Weymouth jackpot written all over it.Perfect setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Actually James, the sv snow maps suggest Worcester hills jack with snow. Easterly inflow..While not the magnitude of March 13...same general concept..Couple different higher max zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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