forkyfork Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 not a fan of the atlantic ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 not a fan of the atlantic ridge we need to have the pv no further then the great lakes to help beat that down a bit, somewhere in central canada it will be congrats upper midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The EURO may have something to track at day 8 . It has a cut off MILLER B just to our S with ridging out in front of it with a ridge axis in the M/W that is ok . Something to keep an eye on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 I like whats showing up in the long range after the first week of February +pna, -epo, and perhaps some -nao help in the uber long range. Obviously without much blocking we are going to risk cutters and messy storms. It should be active and we could potentially be setting ourselves up for something bigger in the 2nd half of the monthAny -NAO help, if it happens, would most likely come at the end of February, after mid month. Question at that point (end of February) will be, 1) is there still any cold around and 2) what will the Pacific look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 TOTAL CAPITULATION OF THE CFS FOR FEB . IS THERE ANYTHING LEFT IN THE WARM CAMP NOW ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Eps gets really cold here in the long range. Models are now showing blocking as we head deeper in February. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Below is a scatter diagram for NYC's 6" or greater February snowstorms (1950-2015): Most common pattern: AO-/PNA+ 44% of cases (38% after February 15) AO-/PNA- 30% of cases (38% after February 15) AO- 74% of cases As the wave lengths begin to shorten later in the month, the PNA+ becomes less important. The PNA+ was present in 56% of February cases, but 50% after February 15. The AO- remains essentially unchanged in importance throughout the month of February. In sum, after the very warm start for the first few days of February, a colder pattern should produce an increased opportunity for measurable snowfall. Should blocking return, and I still believe that outcome is more likely than not despite the ongoing strong AO+, such opportunities will be higher than climatology, especially as it relates to significant snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Gfs is closer this run than the 12z with the follow up wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yeah, the pattern looks very stormy in the February 7-11 period. The EPS has two systems now with the first one being colder around the 7-8 and the second trying to cut a few days later. Really volatile pattern with MJO interacting with a strong blocking pattern from California across the North Pole. We could see some wild solutions in the coming days with so much going on. The core of the cold should be focused over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with both streams being active. Wild is right the EURO painted a D 8 Blizzard from SNJ into SNE ... However the EPS was east . The OP took SLP down 20 mb in 12 hours and had Hurricane force gusts from CC to just S of LI . The WPO is going to go NEG . So if you give me direct arctic air into the NA and a little MJO 4- 5- 6 ridging on the EC and you set up 1 hell of a baroclinic fight . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The AO continues to trend negative again in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The activity looks nice but I don't see a snowstorm pattern for us. Maybe the blocking will trend stronger. We should have a few monster storms nearby as the op runs have already shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The activity looks nice but I don't see a snowstorm pattern for us. Maybe the blocking will trend stronger. We should have a few monster storms nearby as the op runs have already shown. We dont need blocking for snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The AO continues to trend negative again in February While the PNA practically goes negative and the NAO stays positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 While the PNA practically goes negative and the NAO stays positive. Below is a scatter diagram for NYC's 6" or greater February snowstorms (1950-2015): Most common pattern: AO-/PNA+ 44% of cases (38% after February 15) AO-/PNA- 30% of cases (38% after February 15) AO- 74% of cases As the wave lengths begin to shorten later in the month, the PNA+ becomes less important. The PNA+ was present in 56% of February cases, but 50% after February 15. The AO- remains essentially unchanged in importance throughout the month of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 While the PNA practically goes negative and the NAO stays positive. Below is a scatter diagram for NYC's 6" or greater February snowstorms (1950-2015): Most common pattern: AO-/PNA+ 44% of cases (38% after February 15) AO-/PNA- 30% of cases (38% after February 15) AO- 74% of cases As the wave lengths begin to shorten later in the month, the PNA+ becomes less important. The PNA+ was present in 56% of February cases, but 50% after February 15. The AO- remains essentially unchanged in importance throughout the month of February. What of a -NAO? I'm sure that diagram wouldn't be the same if the EPO, NAO, etc... were included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 We dont need blocking for snowstorms. In this case you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 In this case you will. What case? Negative epo and positive pna could yield good results. Look at last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 euro brushes the coast with light snow friday from the wave along the front….im not to high on it but something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 euro brushes the coast with light snow friday from the wave along the front….im not to high on it but something to watch I won't get excited about anything until the cutter is out of the way. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The very warm start to February will likely make it difficult for February to wind up much colder than normal, even if a period of cross-polar flow develops near or after mid-month. If the GFS MOS is reasonably accurate, the 2/1-5 anomaly could be around 11° above normal. If the remainder of the month (2/6-2/29) averages normal, February would finish with a monthly anomaly of +1.9°. To achieve a normal outcome, the remainder of the month would need to average 2.3° below normal. Even if the remainder of the month were very cold e.g., 6° below normal--and some very cold shots are plausible if some of the long-range guidance is reasonably accurate--February would wind up with a monthly anomaly of -3.0°. Courtesy of the El Niño-driven active subtropical jet and the possibility of the redevelopment of blocking, there remains a distinct possibility of above average snowfall, especially in the Middle Atlantic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 We dont need blocking for snowstorms.we just got one of the biggest snowstorms ever after an AO crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 euro brushes the coast with light snow friday from the wave along the front….im not to high on it but something to watchi think it comes a bit more west with that pig ridge to our east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 i think it comes a bit more west with that pig ridge to our east The trough keeps going negative a bit more each run so that's appealing. I just find it hard to get invested with a frontal wave as more often then not they don't work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The very warm start to February will likely make it difficult for February to wind up much colder than normal, even if a period of cross-polar flow develops near or after mid-month. If the GFS MOS is reasonably accurate, the 2/1-5 anomaly could be around 11° above normal. It wouldn't surprise me as we've had overperforming warmth all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 i think it comes a bit more west with that pig ridge to our east Eps was pretty interesting the mean has 1.00 to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Eps was pretty interesting the mean has 1.00 to the coast... 1 QPF??? or 1 inch of snow?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 1 QPF??? or 1 inch of snow?! .5-.1 qpf along the coast and less inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Hit the low 60's up here, no snow on the ground and no marine influence. Felt great out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 .5-.1 qpf along the coast and less inland I dont see that at all. Eps doesnt show anything for the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 What of a -NAO? I'm sure that diagram wouldn't be the same if the EPO, NAO, etc... were included. NAO-: 56% of cases. EPO-: 41% cases. The EPO is more correlated with temperatures than snowstorms for NYC. The NAO's importance grows farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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