pasnownut Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 1:50 Am. Wide awake an seeing CTP's updated map....aint gonna help me sleep any. Wowwy wow... BTW...it is dumping outside. Definitely in the 1+" per hour stuff. See yall soon, and happy to hear that the western gang is overproducing. NEPA....wait ur turn...your the farthest north, so your last in line. Enjoy Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 has this been posted? PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE1247 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...24 TO 30 INCHES.* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WITH RAPID ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1 TO 2INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWWILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Cannot say what its doing north of me.. I can't imagine virga is that close to me... but what do I know. I'm in Sugarloaf to be more specific btw. Light snow right now... that's up in elevation from downtown by a decent amount, something like 1700-1800 ft asl, right? my friend in Hanover Section of Nanticoke is like 800ft asl. from what I could extrapolate from HZL and AVP obs your clouds are like 3-3.5kft asl (depth of layer between clouds and sfc ~1kft); AVP at last ob has clouds at 6kft and no snow. extrapolate to hanover section near middle road, you're looking at like 4500ft asl clouds, with a depth between the clouds and sfc like 3.5-4kft. she also said it's a real damp cold. sounds to me like a lot of virga not making it down to the valley floor, but maybe falling in Mountain Top and Pond Hill. wonder how that plays in all of this, given the current radar/obs and the current upgrade to a WSW for Luzerne County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 has this been posted? PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY... POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE 1247 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...24 TO 30 INCHES. * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WITH RAPID ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. Yep..... by you.... Crazy Sh!t goin down ya'll. LOVE IT Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 My son just got back to Johnstown from a track meet today in Youngstown Ohio. They rode the bus and had a really bad stretch on Rt 22. He said the cars at school in the parking lot are completely covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 In my 20 + years of closely following the weather, I don't Ever remember seeing the Harriaburg area with an official forecast for 24-30 inches! A few times, I have seen 1-2 feet forecast, but never have I seen 30 inches forecast. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlleghanyBlade Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 2 am and last obs of the night 12.75" Total 2.75" in the last hour It's pouring snow and the wind is starting to pick up. I really hope you guy's in the Blizzard zone don't lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 that's up in elevation from downtown by a decent amount, something like 1700-1800 ft asl, right? my friend in Hanover Section of Nanticoke is like 800ft asl. from what I could extrapolate from HZL and AVP obs your clouds are like 3-3.5kft asl (depth of layer between clouds and sfc ~1kft); AVP at last ob has clouds at 6kft and no snow. extrapolate to hanover section near middle road, you're looking at like 4500ft asl clouds, with a depth between the clouds and sfc like 3.5-4kft. she also said it's a real damp cold. sounds to me like a lot of virga not making it down to the valley floor, but maybe falling in Mountain Top and Pond Hill. wonder how that plays in all of this, given the current radar/obs and the current upgrade to a WSW for Luzerne County. It is snowing there now. I live about a mile or two away and it is really coming down here. I was just out to get my daughter from work. the roads are just about covered here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 the whole system went north, DC crowd cheering for a death band it is over for them in the AM. bands will start to setup east to southwest. Models picked up on this earlier but were forgotten by the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 It is snowing there now. I live about a mile or two away and it is really coming down here. I was just out to get my daughter from work. the roads are just about covered here. ok. just saw the avp ob and the lowering clouds. it'll be interesting to see the snow totals tomorrow. thanks for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ground's covered, got a ways to go though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 2 am and last obs of the night 12.75" Total 2.75" in the last hour It's pouring snow and the wind is starting to pick up. I really hope you guy's in the Blizzard zone don't lose power. Wow. 6.6" up here in this end of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlleghanyBlade Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Wow. 6.6" up here in this end of the county. I'ts usually the other way around. How did you do with the one in 2010, we were in the sweet spot here, ended up with 26" and this feels a lot like that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I'ts usually the other way around. How did you do with the one in 2010, we were in the sweet spot here, ended up with 26" and this feels a lot like that one. Had about 17" in 2010, this one seems to be playing out similarly so far in Blair. Are you in the actual town of Newry or in the outskirts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 As of midnight, MDT recorded 3.8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlleghanyBlade Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 In town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 text impressive as well:(Hershey) Overnight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Steady temperature around 27. Blustery, with a northeast wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow. High near 26. Blustery, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow, mainly before 1am, then a chance of light snow after 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 1am. Low around 17. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The 0z Euro tonight now has 22 inches at MDT. Earlier in the week, the Euro & the GFS & Canadian had some runs with These types of numbers, but then backed of a bit the last few days. Then, the good old NAM led the way back up the last 2 days. Every once in a while, a blind squirrel finds a nut... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Starting to see the impressive low level jet appearing on LWX radar. 50-60knots at 3-5k feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Starting to see the impressive low level jet appearing on LWX radar. 50-60knots at 3-5k feet. 2016-01-23_0314.png MAG, what impacts will this have on the storm conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Maybe an inch or two..sucks being on the outside looking in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Any reason why the new WSW indicates Schuylkill County getting 24-30 inches when the text forecast says 18-24? Is there new data included in the WSW that didn't get included in the text forecasts? Anyway, already 4 inches on the ground as of 3:45am here in Tamaqua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Maybe an inch or two..sucks being on the outside looking in.. U got me beat brother, just a skim of snow and nothing falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Maybe an inch or two..sucks being on the outside looking in.. it's that tight gradient on the northern edge of the system, one that can burn people big. doing a partial verification on a snowfall map I put out on twitter Thursday near midday has the >2" storm total area looking quite good. but the northern edge of the >6", >12", and >18" storm total areas are looking about 30-40miles too south. not too much in the way of driving time or even in forecasting from an areal extent, but a big difference in weather. and a big difference a slight model change can do that I should have anticipated. you want to see just as big a difference as you will see compared to state college? I will bet that Harvey's Lake on the northern edge of Luzerne County only sees 2-3, maybe 4", but my home town of Nanticoke going now 3-5 maybe 6", and Hazleton going 6-10", all with an extent of 30 miles, as the crow flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 From the CTP discussion: " QPF FROM 00Z RUNS CONTINUES A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND. NAM AND SREFS NOT LETTING GO AND SEEM TO HAVE MORE MERIT THAN SOME FORECASTERS WERE GIVING THEM PRIOR TO THE STORM. A CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH WOULD HAVE INCLUDED THESE MODELS/MEMBERS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE THE BEST FCST - AS IT MOST TIMES IS. A SLIGHT MOVE WAS MADE TO THIS END" OVER THE LAST 24-30 HRS OF THE FORECAST. BUT MORE CREEDENCE NOW GIVEN TO THEIR SOLUTIONS OF QPF WITH HRRR AND RUC SUPPORTING NEXT SEVERAL HRS. SLR/S WORKING OFF THE GFS TEMP PROFILE IN THE SRN COS NOW LOOK TO BE 15-20:1 IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS TO COME THIS MORNING. 12-15:1 STILL LOOK OK FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I honestly think this is literally the worst thing that could happen to a weather enthusiast and I'm not even bummed. Its kinda funny really. Billtown is the best at something!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Literally almost got trapped outside. We have knee-high drifts already, 15" more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Any reason why the new WSW indicates Schuylkill County getting 24-30 inches when the text forecast says 18-24? Is there new data included in the WSW that didn't get included in the text forecasts? Anyway, already 4 inches on the ground as of 3:45am here in Tamaqua. just saw the zones, Philly is going with the lower amounts overall in Carbon County (12-16 from what I am seeing), i think. Wonder why State College went 20-30 while right next door in what should be a similar area forecast-wise that much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 MAG, what impacts will this have on the storm conditions? Winds at the surface will likely be on the increase as those high winds at the low levels work their way into PA with the surface low getting closer and mix down to some degree.. which of course would have implications on the far southern tier where there are blizzard warnings. Addtionally, mesoanalysis indicates destablization of the mid levels starting to work up into Eastern VA, DC, and southern/central MD.. and with that has come some thundersnow reports in the Mid-Atlantic thread as far north as BWI. So that should continue to work into SC PA later this morning bringing thundersnow possibilities with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Getting solid inch per hour rates here. I just measured and am up to 5 inches now. Williamsport, I truly feel sorry for you up there. I know the feeling well, having dealt with it the past few years as well. And I do owe all of you an apology for the other day when I saw the post about the blizzard warnings and complained. It was out of total frustration, but I shouldn't have done it and I'm sorry to neff and anyone else I offended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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