BxEngine Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 No hearsay or guesses guys. Post what you know about the models if thats whats being discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Totals will likely be raised later on especially from the city south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You can tell how the dry air is kinda wedged in there east of the mountains: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mt. Holly's discussion - seem to think the snow is coming sooner then later...BASED ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, RADAR AND SURFACEOBSERVATIONS, THE SNOW LOOKS TO COME IN FASTER. THE WORDING IN THEWINTER HEADLINES WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLIER ARRIVALOF THE SNOW. A SPS WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTH OF PHILLY AS WE AREPARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH THE SNOW STARTING DURING THEAFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE. ONCE THE SNOW STARTS, IT WON`T TAKELONG FOR IT TO BECOME MODERATE TO EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY IN INTENSITY.THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RATES TO APPROACH 1"/HR IN THE DELMARVAAND SOUTHERN-MOST PART OF NJ AT THE TAIL END OF RUSH HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is the gridded MOS model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 the ggem is a crush job. I can't see totals though Crush job ? Lol . I heard that somewhere before. Great call and hold on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Totals will likely be raised later on especially from the city south. If everything continues to hold serve or trend north from these 12z runs, everywhere will be upped. Looking likely at this point this will be a warning snowfall from I-84 SOUTH... with a good chance of 12+ from I-287 South MAJOR CHANGES SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY!!! We all should be very happy about that. We finally got the GFS, GGEM and EURO on board. Good to see. There is still some fine tuning still to go and probably even during the storm.... always the case with the BIG ONES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Highres ARW. You can see it hit the brick wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You can tell how the dry air is kinda wedged in there east of the mountains: I didn't look at the last 2 runs and the HRRR isn't exactly reliable at hour 14 anyway but it did show snow approaching NYC at 03-04z and you could see the echoes were fighting dry air. I think I'll take til 08 or even 09z possible before NYC and vicinity begins snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think there is going to be a large area of over 20 inches . This will rate really high on the scale if this can drive into SNE.I think this will be a low end 4 if it can deliver in NYC. Boston is out of it for anything more than a lucky inch or two. It would have to deliver for the Boston metro and other SNE metros for it to be much higher than that. PDII was a 4 and it delivered over 2 feet in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GGEM is roughly 2"+LE at Trenton and 0.00" at High Point. How bout the inbetween areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Super High Res simulated composite (1km) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If everything continues to hold serve or trend north from these 12z runs, everywhere will be upped. Looking likely at this point this will be a warning snowfall from I-84 SOUTH... with a good chance of 12+ from I-287 South MAJOR CHANGES SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY!!! We all should be very happy about that. We finally got the GFS, GGEM and EURO on board. Good to see. There is still some fine tuning still to go and probably even during the storm.... always the case with the BIG ONES! I'd still be very hesitant talking about 12" or more anywhere north or west of NYC. These positive trends so far have been mostly for Rockland/Westchester and south. Other than the NAM, the far NW suburbs are still shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snow into NYC by 05z looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 By 2AM it should be snowing almost everywhere in NJ and Southern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Tight..not a lot north of i84-better for areas just south of there How does look us near Ct coast? Can someone post a map of the GEM. Mobile is terrible for this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Personal speculation that might be obvious to folks on this board: if the Euro merely holds serve on its major increases last night, expect to see every forecaster bumping up snowfall amounts significantly this afternoon to something like 8-14" for NYC/LI/NENJ near NYC and 12-20" for Central Jersey with the 12" being near 78 and the 20" being along 195. If the Euro backtracks, we might not see any increased snowfall forecasts. Waiting for 1 pm now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 By 2AM it should be snowing almost everywhere in NJ and Southern NY. Wow, even high point has heavy snow at that early.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow...GGEM is improved...and I can't help but mention....DC 3 FEET on GGEM?!? This close to the event.....this is a scary, incredible situation for them down there!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'd still be very hesitant talking about 12" or more anywhere north or west of NYC. These positive trends so far have been mostly for Rockland/Westchester and south. Other than the NAM, the far NW suburbs are still shut out. Well I am right at 287 in NY.... seems to me with the current trends around that area should fall in the 6-12 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow, even high point has heavy snow at that early....Heavy echoes, not necessarily snow. Dry air= virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Personal speculation that might be obvious to folks on this board: if the Euro merely holds serve on its major increases last night, expect to see every forecaster bumping up snowfall amounts significantly this afternoon to something like 8-12" for NYC/LI/NENJ near NYC and 12-20" for Central Jersey with the 12" being near 78 and the 20" being along 195. If the Euro backtracks, we might not see any increased snowfall forecasts. Waiting for 1 pm now... The NWS already increased the NYC forecast to 7 to 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yanks you had me worried with those earlier panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Personal speculation that might be obvious to folks on this board: if the Euro merely holds serve on its major increases last night, expect to see every forecaster bumping up snowfall amounts significantly this afternoon to something like 8-12" for NYC/LI/NENJ near NYC and 12-20" for Central Jersey with the 12" being near 78 and the 20" being along 195. If the Euro backtracks, we might not see any increased snowfall forecasts. Waiting for 1 pm now... Most are already at/near 8-12 for NYC... except some TV outlets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nice. The 12Z NAVGEM has 12-15" of snowfall for the Tri-State Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow...GGEM is improved...and I can't help but mention....DC 3 FEET on GGEM?!? This close to the event.....this is a scary, incredible situation for them down there!!If they can avoid the dry slot, then yeah, this can be top 3 there I think. I can see some favored places near I-81 walking away with 40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Personal speculation that might be obvious to folks on this board: if the Euro merely holds serve on its major increases last night, expect to see every forecaster bumping up snowfall amounts significantly this afternoon to something like 8-12" for NYC/LI/NENJ near NYC and 12-20" for Central Jersey with the 12" being near 78 and the 20" being along 195. If the Euro backtracks, we might not see any increased snowfall forecasts. Waiting for 1 pm now...Long Island is already 6-12 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yanks you had me worried with those earlier panels. I had myself worried too. It struggles for a few hours later tonight. I think most will go to bed wondering what's going on and then a wall of snow arrives sometime after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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