Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Widespread 2-3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good lord. Superstorm since everyone is asleep what are your current thoughts for nyc I have an interview in a few hours with NBC WGAL at 8am, so I'm really focusing on SPA right now. However, I think the city is in an excellent spot tonight. I would go with a preliminary 8-15" right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I won't be relieved unless the gfs bites this morning but I'm confident it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I have an interview in a few hours with NBC WGAL at 8am, so I'm really focusing on SPA right now. However, I think the city is in an excellent spot tonight. I would go with a preliminary 8-15" right now. Thanks for the response. Good luck with your interview. I have followed you since the accuweather boards. Some great trends tonight. Water vapor is astonishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Thanks for the response. Good luck with your interview. I have followed you since the accuweather boards. Some great trends tonight. Water vapor is astonishing Thanks. I was just a kid back when I started on there in 2006. Tomorrow I'm actually going to be collaborating with Joe Calhoun to do an on-air forecast. I have to say, these are the most prolific model progs I have ever seen in my eight years of experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 32 inches on this run for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsnowBubble Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Models appear to be coming closer to a concensus. 18z Nam shrinks precip back off of Mass and Hudson Valley towards coast while 00z Euro Expanded the 1"+ precip line to the Bronx and south.. and moderate to light up through northern CT and LHV. Hopefully we see 18z GFS expand precip shield a bit NW as models come into agreement.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 doesnt look as north as the 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4KM NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Starts the fun times.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 12km NAM is insanity... still confused with the large discrepancies with the 4km NAM. The totals and how far the precipitation makes it north... way different to me... far from an expert though so if someone could explain that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Models appear to be coming closer to a concensus. 18z Nam shrinks precip back off of Mass and Hudson Valley towards coast while 00z Euro Expanded the 1"+ precip line to the Bronx and south.. and moderate to light up through northern CT and LHV. Hopefully we see 18z GFS expand precip shield a bit NW as models come into agreement.... Que? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4KM NAM. Snow still falling. Another 3-5in on top of that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snow still falling. Another 3-5in on top of that lol 12k NAM gives me 2' while the 4k NAM gives me flurries. Something isn't right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsnowBubble Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Que? ....look at the total precip prog.. not to the extent north as modeled 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Confluence getting shifted ahead of moisture advection. May be some more adjustments tomorrow morning. Dont touch that dial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Confluence getting shifted ahead of moisture advection. May be some more adjustments tomorrow morning. Dont touch that dial! Explain what that means to the non-experts please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Explain what that means to the non-experts please?Dry air is moving out of the way. It's coming north. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Confluence getting shifted ahead of moisture advection. May be some more adjustments tomorrow morning. Dont touch that dial! Adjustments meaning track moves further north, mixing issues or otherwise? I would love to hear your explanation on this. It is so interesting to see all these moving parts and make sense of it. Thanks so much in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 6z RGEM is north, not quite a big hit yet, much better than 00z though for the area... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Rgem is further north than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Adjustments meaning track moves further north, mixing issues or otherwise? I would love to hear your explanation on this. It is so interesting to see all these moving parts and make sense of it. Thanks so much in advance!More in the way of the system being able to tuck into the coast like the NAM/SREF/ECMWF show, as well as bring a much larger precip field. The confluence (NW to SE vectors) were the main issue that we had during the period when the models were showing suppression. With that lessening and the moisture field blossoming, I think the global models will be playing catch up. Best stick to nowcasting. This one is going to have some surprises Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow. NAM always shows what we want It's trying to show a huge frontogenesis band that wrecks and stalls over the entire area Best news of the night is the euro and euro ens showing NYC getting in on the big time action. There's going to be huge bands on the north side of this thing that the euro wont pick up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Regn looks real nice compared to prior run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Blizzard Warning in effect from 4 AM Saturday to noon EST Sunday. The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard Warning, which is in effect from 4 AM Saturday to noon EST Sunday. The Blizzard Watch is no longer in effect. Locations: the five boroughs of New York City, coastal portions of Northeast New Jersey, and Long Island. Hazard types: Heavy snow along with strong and potentially damaging winds. Blowing and drifting snow with near zero visibilities is expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Accumulations: snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Winds: north 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Temperatures: in the upper 20s to low 30s. Visibilities: one quarter mile or less at times. Timing: Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Great image of the wind field Superstorm. It's like watching a whip in northern New York. Seems as though it will eject right off Virginia Beach. Good vibes tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Blizzard Warning in effect from 4 AM Saturday to noon EST Sunday. The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard Warning, which is in effect from 4 AM Saturday to noon EST Sunday. The Blizzard Watch is no longer in effect. Locations: the five boroughs of New York City, coastal portions of Northeast New Jersey, and Long Island. Hazard types: Heavy snow along with strong and potentially damaging winds. Blowing and drifting snow with near zero visibilities is expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Accumulations: snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Winds: north 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Temperatures: in the upper 20s to low 30s. Visibilities: one quarter mile or less at times. Timing: Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. Id image them raising those totals today if everything stays on par Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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