snywx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 GGEM actually looks good.. Gets decent snows back this way. Little surprising considering how late it gets going. Miller Bs always disappoint for someone just hope that someone isn't us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Good signal and trends so far on 12z suites We need that low to pop about 150 miles west of where it does on the GFS. It's great to finally have something new to track but I'm not sold yet... a late-blooming redeveloper isn't exactly the silver bullet for fixing an interior snowfall deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 We need that low to pop about 150 miles west of where it does on the GFS. It's great to finally have something new to track but I'm not sold yet... a late-blooming redeveloper isn't exactly the silver bullet for fixing an interior snowfall deficit. Yeah that has E LI & ENE written all over it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I have a 9am flight out of LGA on Tuesday for a job interview. See what y'all can do to keep any potential snow out of the way until after that. As far as measuring goes, I don't think there can be just one way to do it. I understand needing standards and all that but most storms around here are completely different than a typical storm in northern New England or the Rockies. Our snow settles quickly due to generally higher h2o content, how can that be compared to a couple of feet of fluff in Wyoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 If only there was another disappointing scenario where a miller B really burnt us........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro was a major step backwards tho lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro was a major step backwards tho lolStep forward, step backwards, it's the model cha cha Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 There seems to be talk of the baroclinic zone further off the coast than years in the past. Would explain why we have been getting fringed the last 6 years or so. Can the Gulf Stream be the culprit? And is this the new norm? What are everyones thoughts on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 There seems to be talk of the baroclinic zone further off the coast than years in the past. Would explain why we have been getting fringed the last 6 years or so. Can the Gulf Stream be the culprit? And is this the new norm? What are everyones thoughts on this... I think we need to wait till its on shore and get better sampling....wait, wut? Something is up, we are either too far north or too far west for the big storms these days. Is it a stretch of bad luck or something scientific? I'm not nearly smart enough on this topic to answer that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I'm not nearly smart enough to answer that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 There seems to be talk of the baroclinic zone further off the coast than years in the past. Would explain why we have been getting fringed the last 6 years or so. Can the Gulf Stream be the culprit? And is this the new norm? What are everyones thoughts on this... I tweeted this question the the pros at the NWS in Albany. Will see if they respond. I wouldn't go cliff jumping yet with regards to the next week. It's way too early to buy into any particular outcome IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 It just seems like storms are making that turn east alot sooner than years past. It was cute in 2009-2010 but now im starting to think its something else at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It just seems like storms are making that turn east alot sooner than years past. It was cute in 2009-2010 but now im starting to think its something else at play here.If this is the new norm and if getting fringed becomes much more common, winter will probably become one of my least favorite seasons. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 If this is the new norm and if getting fringed becomes much more common, winter will probably become one of my least favorite seasons. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk 20 years ago I remember being jealous of BGM & MSV. They would get pounded more often than not. Now It seems like their annual snowfall has been cut in half the last 10 years while areas along the immediate coast have seen a dramatic increase. Since 2002 my average has been 58.8" which is roughly 8-9" above the long term average so I can't say its been all bad around here but areas just to the NW of us have been in a serious snow drought for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It just seems like storms are making that turn east alot sooner than years past. It was cute in 2009-2010 but now im starting to think its something else at play here. There's a lot of information in here and the source is somewhat questionable, but it speculates that warm sea surface temperatures cause such strong dynamics that it forces the higher precipitation off the coast. Not sure if it's particularly relevant or not though. https://answersingenesis.org/environmental-science/ice-age/numerical-simulations-of-three-noreasters-with-a-warm-atlantic/ 20 years ago I remember being jealous of BGM & MSV. They would get pounded more often than not. Now It seems like their annual snowfall has been cut in half the last 10 years while areas along the immediate coast have seen a dramatic increase. Since 2002 my average has been 58.8" which is roughly 8-9" above the long term average so I can't say its been all bad around here but areas just to the NW of us have been in a serious snow drought for some time now. I used to live in Cortland in the early 2000's and that area often got rocked with huge Nor'easters. It seemed like 12-20" snowfalls were a common theme for a few of those years. You're right, it seems like they barely ever get hit by a Nor'easter these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 20 years ago I remember being jealous of BGM & MSV. They would get pounded more often than not. Now It seems like their annual snowfall has been cut in half the last 10 years while areas along the immediate coast have seen a dramatic increase. Since 2002 my average has been 58.8" which is roughly 8-9" above the long term average so I can't say its been all bad around here but areas just to the NW of us have been in a serious snow drought for some time now. Our average snowfall for that same period has been 44.3", so something is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Our average snowfall for that same period has been 44.3", so something is going on. Wow that's impressive. What's your long term avg out there?? 30"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 For the coast & New England maybe lol.. It's so weird to have this strong of an El Nino and have events that favor the coast...even with a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I have lost total confidence in the Euro and Miller Bs almost always give NE/ENE the goods. What we need is a coastal hugger or a SWFE with a transfer near S NJ. I miss the days when the dry slot reached LI. Thats long gone Almost every storm growing up dry slotted me. I def don't miss those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 If it was up to us you would only experience those days again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 If it was up to us you would only experience those days again Lol. The funny part is I'm always rooting for all of us to cash in while most of you wish for "the storm" to cut through LI haha. I mean there are storms that give the whole area a good snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 So few. The best storms for LI are rarely great for up here although I tend to do better than the guys on the west side of the river. The other side of that coin is that the storms that give a good dumping to the whole area are ones like PDII where it was so cold throughout most of the storm that we all got it good but LI tends to mix which puts a hurt on your totals and then "the board" whines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 So few. The best storms for LI are rarely great for up here although I tend to do better than the guys on the west side of the river. The other side of that coin is that the storms that give a good dumping to the whole area are ones like PDII where it was so cold throughout most of the storm that we all got it good but LI tends to mix which puts a hurt on your totals and then "the board" whines. I don't mind only getting 12" if it means you guys cash in too lol. I'm not greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Lol. The funny part is I'm always rooting for all of us to cash in while most of you wish for "the storm" to cut through LI haha. I mean there are storms that give the whole area a good snow storm Very very rare for all to cash in. "Benchmark " storms are too Far East for us. We need you guys to rain at some point during an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It's 6:13pm and its 61 degrees IMBY, and people say that spring isn't here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Wow that's impressive. What's your long term avg out there?? 30"? Since 1995 (start of my local record) we are averaging almost 40". I would think longer term it has probably been about 32 - 33", but that is just a guess. BNL(OKX) is about 32" over a 65+ year period. The most suitably located coops aren't very useful...too much missing and wrong data and the more complete records are south shore / east end locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I just went out with the dogs and it's humid outside. Yuck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It's 6:13pm and its 61 degrees IMBY, and people say that spring isn't here. 60 here with a few wind gusts in the 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 After all this moisture I don't even want it to get cold because all that will happen is the ground will turn into a block of ice. The mt bike trails will be useless until things dry out, yardwork will be more of a chore than it should be and it just generally won't be much fun to do outdoorsy things until spring really gets here. Gimme a week or two of 60*, windy, sunny days so things can dry up before the trees leaf out, none of that extended dreary bs like we had last year. Can you tell I really need a job so I have something productive to do other than drink rum and cokes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 56f out there and ready for spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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