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Continued Winter Banter.


Ericjcrash

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At the time, 1010 allowed more time for the forecasts. Today's compressed format leads to much less interesting forecasts, even as Dr. Joe Sobel can sometimes be heard on air.

they were my favorites back then...I started video taping snowfalls in November 1982 and I have accuwx on 1010 wins for some events...I even have a young Joe Bastardi in one segment in 1983...Craig Allen and the wcbs weather team were great also...Steve Sampole (spelling?) was also on cbs radio...

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Some photos: http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1982.html

 

Also, there was thundersnow during the morning of April 6 as the storm deepened explosively leading to the blizzard conditions.

I remember the depth of the cold with that one and that was the first time I remember experiencing thundersnow.  In one of my meteorology classes at Nassau Community College a few years later the professor posited that those thunderstorms lifted the cloud tops and they were able to warm significantly creating better vertical velocities thereby increasing snowfall rates and holding the cold in closer to the ground for longer in the downwelling section of the storm.

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they were my favorites back then...I started video taping snowfalls in November 1982 and I have accuwx on 1010 wins for some events...I even have a young Joe Bastardi in one segment in 1983...Craig Allen and the wcbs weather team were great also...Steve Sampole (spelling?) was also on cbs radio...

I agree. Craig Allen is always good to hear on the air.

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I remember the depth of the cold with that one and that was the first time I remember experiencing thundersnow.  In one of my meteorology classes at Nassau Community College a few years later the professor posited that those thunderstorms lifted the cloud tops and they were able to warm significantly creating better vertical velocities thereby increasing snowfall rates and holding the cold in closer to the ground for longer in the downwelling section of the storm.

If I recall correctly, the VVs were really intense at the height of the storm. It was an amazing storm.

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If I recall correctly, the VVs were really intense at the height of the storm. It was an amazing storm.

I was up in the Poconos and measured 13.5"...I drove home as the snow was ending and with no one on the road I was back in Brooklyn in two hours...The snow had just stopped and there was 8" on the ground...

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I was up in the Poconos and measured 13.5"...I drove home as the snow was ending and with no one on the road I was back in Brooklyn in two hours...The snow had just stopped and there was 8" on the ground...

 

A late season blizzard and greater than 95-96 snowfall season are the only NYC snowfall records that we haven't seen in the 2000's.

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016021712&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=19

It's still pretty obvious that either ALOT of people are just lazy or don't know that the NAM, GFS, GGEM, HRRR, RGEM, ARW, NMM, navgem, jma etc etc lol.. Are ALL free.... Go check em out for yourself, so you dont have to rely on others for updates

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But we have seen two of the most wonderful early season rockin' and rollin' storms I have ever seen.  The onethat shut down Halloween was awesome.

 

We have been on quite a roll since 2000. 12 out of the last 16 winters have featured either near or above normal

seasonal snowfall in NYC. The only 4 duds were 01-02, 06-07, 07-08, and 11-12. So if you just cut and pasted 

that forecast every winter you would be batting 750. People would have forgiven you for missing those 4 winters

with below normal snowfall. So it payed to have a snowy bias since 2000. But not so much for the previous 15

winters.

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You know that the long-range forecast progs (including the 2/25 storm) just got much worse than 24 hours ago when 90% of today's posts are in the banter thread.

Kudos to bluewave for predicting the inland runner next week when the GFS/GGEM/ensembles were OTS yesterday.

Lol there's 28 gfs runs, and 14 euro runs left

it's being posted in banter, because well... It's banter, 7 days out we shouldn't even really be posting about a model run, we do it cause we're crazy tho.....

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You know that the long-range forecast progs (including the 2/25 storm) just got much worse than 24 hours ago when 90% of today's posts are in the banter thread.

Kudos to bluewave for predicting the inland runner next week when the GFS/GGEM/ensembles were OTS yesterday.

 

 

 

Another one handing out awards early .

steve-harvey-zoom-02-80ea0f4c-7bdc-4714-

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Lol. I like your style.

At least we still have the 12z Euro. I have the car tailpipe close by just in case though.

 

 

Nothing set in stone . Most 7 day threats should stay in banter .I understand the angst we are working without a real block . The Euro swings a feature through at 120 . It is further S than the GFS and that may allow the Vortex to push through the lakes .

The WAR has way less influence than on the GFS , but at 7 days out I would take nothing off the table . 

As is that is a good set up for almost all  on the Euro . 

 

You can the differences with the WAR here at 192 as the Euro deepens further E . 

gfs_z500a_sd_namer_33.png

 

 

ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_9.png

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getting a 2' snowfall and a below zero day after a December that was a warm November is just as amazing as December was warm...it had no days 32 or below...it averaged over 50 degrees...six above the previous high...1982-83 had some 70 degree days in early December and a warm Christmas day but had a few days of cold with a snowfall between warmth...this is the only winter that compares with this one but not as extreme...

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