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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted

Not sure when it comes out...It usually comes out at 6pm or so on Vista,...but doesnt always show up...not sure what time on Wxbell...0z never showed up

 

Yeah, I have no idea when they come out either...though it seems about 10 or so hours after the OP.  But I know there was issue earlier this week where it took a whole day or so for the Para to come out.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Low location plots paint a different picture. Much better than the op.

Still a mixed bag of solutions but some big hits. 8-9 6"+ storms and a handful of other decent ones. Mean snowfall 3" inside of d8. First time all year.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

All in all, this is clearly our best bet so far this season (speaking of late this upcoming week).  "Best bet so far" not exactly being a high bar, I know! ;)  But it appears we have a good shot at scoring something even with the less-than-perfect solutions.  That's not really something we've seen thus far.  And it's under 200 hours, too.  Like being in the red zone the first time.  :D

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Ltrain

Ltrain

Posted
Posted

Here's what I got. I think you were looking at yesterday's 12z run. That is what your link sent me too. Here is todays.

post-9864-0-19092100-1452977064_thumb.pn

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Juat like Ian mentioned a day or two ago. Torch is now pushed back to d15 if you believe it at all. Yes, there are potentially a couple warm days centered around d9 or so but another cool shot and amplified look with a +pna. Euro begins the pac invasion in the west d14-15 now.

We'll likely be AN on the means for d9 - 15 but no longer looking like a string of warm days in a row. Hard to get mad at today's ens runs for a lot of reasons.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Juat like Ian mentioned a day or two ago. Torch is now pushed back to d15 if you believe it at all. Yes, there are potentially a couple warm days centered around d9 or so but another cool shot and amplified look with a +pna. Euro begins the pac invasion in the west d14-15 now.

We'll likely be AN on the means for d9 - 15 but no longer looking like a string of warm days in a row. Hard to get mad at today's ens runs for a lot of reasons.

Subtrop jet is in blast mode. Going to be hard to sustain a big warm up it would seem but pulses seem likely. Tho we'll have to see how things realign.. GEFS is a bit more friendly with northern lats than EPS. Op GFS has a neat look by the end.. yeah op GFS but less smoothed at least. :P

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Kevin Reilly

Kevin Reilly

Posted
Posted

All in all, this is clearly our best bet so far this season (speaking of late this upcoming week). "Best bet so far" not exactly being a high bar, I know! ;) But it appears we have a good shot at scoring something even with the less-than-perfect solutions. That's not really something we've seen thus far. And it's under 200 hours, too. Like being in the red zone the first time. :D[/quot

Great analogy but with the Pacific not being on our side with a fast flow in the redzone for me will be under 100 hours possibly under 90.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

Juat like Ian mentioned a day or two ago. Torch is now pushed back to d15 if you believe it at all. Yes, there are potentially a couple warm days centered around d9 or so but another cool shot and amplified look with a +pna. Euro begins the pac invasion in the west d14-15 now.

We'll likely be AN on the means for d9 - 15 but no longer looking like a string of warm days in a row. Hard to get mad at today's ens runs for a lot of reasons.

 

A short warm-up (or even a brief torch...emphasis on brief!) isn't so bad, if it's not something that locks in as we get into February.  That apparently is not something that should be a concern, inferring from what you're saying here (hopefully correctly).  I think some kind of milder/relaxed period was more or less expected for right near the end of January.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Juat like Ian mentioned a day or two ago. Torch is now pushed back to d15 if you believe it at all. Yes, there are potentially a couple warm days centered around d9 or so but another cool shot and amplified look with a +pna. Euro begins the pac invasion in the west d14-15 now.

We'll likely be AN on the means for d9 - 15 but no longer looking like a string of warm days in a row. Hard to get mad at today's ens runs for a lot of reasons.

Actually, I thought day 10 ensemble on Tropical Tidbits looked very nice. Considering we'll be at are climo lows for the winter at the end of this month, no one should be concerned about 850 temps showing up a little AN. We can get snow in that regime around here at the end of January.
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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

All in all, this is clearly our best bet so far this season (speaking of late this upcoming week). "Best bet so far" not exactly being a high bar, I know! ;) But it appears we have a good shot at scoring something even with the less-than-perfect solutions. That's not really something we've seen thus far. And it's under 200 hours, too. Like being in the red zone the first time. :D[/quot

Great analogy but with the Pacific not being on our side with a fast flow in the redzone for me will be under 100 hours possibly under 90.

 

The way this year has gone, it seems the red zone is < 200 hours!  :lmao:

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Subtrop jet is in blast mode. Going to be hard to sustain a big warm up it would seem but pulses seem likely. Tho we'll have to see how things realign.. GEFS is a bit more friendly with northern lats than EPS. Op GFS has a neat look by the end.. yeah op GFS but less smoothed at least. :P

This is clearly not a good year for snowpack and days with snow on the ground. Well, if we had any anyways. Lol

Wet paste is totally cool with me. I don't even care about anything except putting numbers on the board. Idgaf if it melts in a day or 2 or gets topped with rain. It's all about numbers and right now it won't be hard to beat a T.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Actually, I thought day 10 ensemble on Tropical Tidbits looked very nice. Considering we'll be at are climo lows for the winter at the end of this month, no one should be concerned about 850 temps showing up a little AN. We can get snow in that regime around here at the end of January.

My reference to warm days were the upper 40's kind of stuff. Not 50-60. Snowpack should help keep them under control either way. Especially at night. Lol

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

Zuzgwang, quit ninja'ing me!

You young guys type much faster than me on these phones. Lol

 

Young?  You flatterer!  :lmao:

 

And besides, I'm on the computer now.  Using the phone isn't easy on the eyes for us older folks, let alone typing on it fast.  Besides, I don't have any apps for my rotary phone anyhow!  Now get off my snowless lawn!  :P

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

This is clearly not a good year for snowpack and days with snow on the ground. Well, if we had any anyways. Lol

Wet paste is totally cool with me. I don't even care about anything except putting numbers on the board. Idgaf if it melts in a day or 2 or gets topped with rain. It's all about numbers and right now it won't be hard to beat a T.

 

Paste job at this point wouldn't be too bad, I suppose.  As long as it doesn't knock the power out like Commutageddon in 2011.

 

The Feb. 2006 storm was one where it was warm a few days before that, and was in the 60s again shortly after.  Nearly all remnants were gone within a week.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

This is clearly not a good year for snowpack and days with snow on the ground. Well, if we had any anyways. Lol

Wet paste is totally cool with me. I don't even care about anything except putting numbers on the board. Idgaf if it melts in a day or 2 or gets topped with rain. It's all about numbers and right now it won't be hard to beat a T.

yeah looks primarily back and forth but cold enough if the storm track is right perhaps. models are dumping a deeper trough into the west late pretty much across the board. that's sort of what the GFS op goes nuts on with a big SE ridge popping but the jet is absolutely ripping at the same time so imagine it would be progressive.

 

but if we score (or don't) ahead it'll have been in a more classic way than what's shown after -- transitioning out of deep block and into pos territory etc. without blocking we're usually fairly toast in strong ninos.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

I hope we all know that from here on out, we're probably in "1 step forward, 2 steps back" mode.   18z will probably blow.  Maybe even 0z...then 6z gets us back and rights the ship.   12z tomm will be mixed.  0z Monday will be a hit and then...

 

When we officially get NAM'd at range, then it's serious.  Have yet to see that occur.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

yeah looks primarily back and forth but cold enough if the storm track is right perhaps. models are dumping a deeper trough into the west late pretty much across the board. that's sort of what the GFS op goes nuts on with a big SE ridge popping but the jet is absolutely ripping at the same time so imagine it would be progressive.

 

but if we score (or don't) ahead it'll have been in a more classic way than what's shown after -- transitioning out of deep block and into pos territory etc. without blocking we're usually fairly toast in strong ninos.

 

I saw that deep western trough and pumped up ridge here in the long range GFS, too (like everyone else has I'm sure).  I also wonder if that's just an artifact of a wound-up storm and not a hint of locking in December again (which looked like that most of the time!).  Seems like that should be the case.

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

This is clearly not a good year for snowpack and days with snow on the ground. Well, if we had any anyways. Lol

Wet paste is totally cool with me. I don't even care about anything except putting numbers on the board. Idgaf if it melts in a day or 2 or gets topped with rain. It's all about numbers and right now it won't be hard to beat a T.

In the strong Nino's since 1950 that went above normal snow-wise, we managed at least one "big one" that didn't have temp issues for DC.

 

But as I posted in the banter thread, I almost wish we get a "normal" DC snow-wise with one 6"+ event, a couple more in the 3-5" range, and a mixed event or two, just to add a new look to a Super Nino. 

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