Drz1111 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 You are completely ignoring the lack of a -NAO. Show me a strong El Niño that was cold and snowy in the absence of a -NAO style block. Until you see that modeled consistently inside of a week get used to a transient patten, a lot of mild Pacific air flooding the US and a lack of snow in the Atlantic Coastal Plain. This is a bad post. First off, the sample size of strong El Nino's, particularly in the satellite era, is so small that we really have no idea what's "necessary" for cold and snow. Second, it confuses a -NAO for high-latitude blockiness generally. Index hugging is never a good thing. Finally, it assumes cold and snowy go together, which, you know, they don't. I will take a blocky, snowy, nearnormal / slightly below pattern any day of the week. That's the textbook good pattern for a strong Nino. Does it mean there are intervals with a strong Pacific jet? Of course. That doesn't mean its a bad pattern. Especially if you like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 It depends where you live. One of the most misconstrued theories on these boards over the years is that a "suppressive" pattern isn't what we want for snow. It's BS is you live on the Atlantic coastal plain from DC up through NYC/LI. Give me the most suppressed cold pattern you can at 40 north on the coast and I'll find a way to get good snows. With this type of El Niño a marginal Pacific laden temp pattern ain't cutting it unless you are NW and elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 These are 2 different arguments. The NAO is not responsible for your PAC or arctic source region air mass differences . Your pacific/arctic signals define that . You said this is mild Pacific air , it's not anymore. We are talking about a complete flip at 500 and a total reversal at 2m. Not snow "yet " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 It depends where you live. One of the most misconstrued theories on these boards over the years is that a "suppressive" pattern isn't what we want for snow. It's BS is you live on the Atlantic coastal plain from DC up through NYC/LI. Give me the most suppressed cold pattern you can at 40 north on the coast and I'll find a way to get good snows. With this type of El Niño a marginal Pacific laden temp pattern ain't cutting it unless you are NW and elevated. Remember last 2 winter's we received well above normal snowfall. All without a negative NAO. Conscious that most blizzards had a negative NAO, snow events can occur without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The 7th is 25/41 on the Euro. Around average. The 8th is slightly above average. Only the 9th is decently above average. The GFSx has one below normal day during first week of Jan. and averages +4 to +5 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The GFSx has one below normal day during first week of Jan. and averages +4 to +5 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Monster BUST.Jan 2 - 6 are BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The pacific pattern is by far much more important than the Atlantic so a -NAO isn't essential for us to get snow & cold. However for our big coastals like a Boxing Day system, we need the -NAO (west based in particular) to deliver the goods. Last year's near miss would've greatly benefited from decent -NAO blocking. Looks like both the AO & NAO forecasts improved a bit today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The pacific pattern is by far much more important than the Atlantic so a -NAO isn't essential for us to get snow & cold. However for our big coastals like a Boxing Day system, we need the -NAO (west based in particular) to deliver the goods. Last year's near miss would've greatly benefited from decent -NAO blocking. Looks like both the AO & NAO forecasts improved a bit today. AO, I think was better yesterday. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml NAO looks the same as yesterday. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 AO, I think was better yesterday. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml NAO looks the same as yesterday. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml AO is better this morning. AO had more members rising yesterday. Anyway, love the look of both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Monster BUST. Jan 2 - 6 are BN The 500mb pattern is ripping above normal 1/3-11. Then we get saved by lower heights in the southerly jet. 850mb Temps. while not antagonistic are playing spectator most of this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Several of the EPS members are advertising a very deep pattern changer storm right after day 10 which pulls the trough into the East. It will be interesting to watch this storm threat evolve as we get to within days 6-10 and 1-5. Plenty of energy available if it can all gel into one major event. Yeh Chris I posted this on Monday .. Posted Monday at 3:59 PM The jet breaks through a full week earlier than the weeklies were advertising from just one week ago . Th Ensembles continue to place 2 centers of LP off the EC in the day 10 -15 . I am sure we would be happy with one , but by day 15 the entire vortex gets hung up under that ridging . For this warm biased LR model on the EC seeing those anomalies at 850 , tells me 2 thing look out , this will trend colder and 2 it`s seeing snow cover .. It`s now 1 storm , it bundles the energy is prob a MAJOR winter storm from the Panhandle to New England and then drags the VORTEX in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The 500mb pattern is ripping above normal 1/3-11. Then we get saved by lower heights in the southerly jet. 850mb Temps. while not antagonistic are playing spectator most of this time. Forecast period Jan 2- 6 . Which I called N from 2 weeks ago - it`s actually BN now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The EPS are heading right to the Euro seasonal idea for February about a month early. There is a ton of baroclinic and STJ energy available if we can bundle the energy right after day 10 into a phased system. I agree , that`s all I have been saying . The weeklies gunned this pattern change much quicker than we thought guys like FORKY said the pattern sucked after the 10th . Once I read that I knew I was on the right track . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The EPS are heading right to the Euro seasonal idea for February about a month early. There is a ton of baroclinic and STJ energy available if we can bundle the energy right after day 10 into a phased system. Sounds ominous. Does this storm have HECS potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 this storm has potential Nothing more at the moment . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 With respect to NYC's 6" or greater January snowstorms since 1950, the AO-/PNA+ combination is optimal. AO-: 82% PNA+: 82% AO-/PNA+: 65% AO-/PNA-: 18% AO+/PNA-: None Should the AO-/PNA+ regime be sustained, as currently shown on the guidance, opportunities for snowfall will become present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 With respect to NYC's 6" or greater January snowstorms since 1950, the AO-/PNA+ combination is optimal. AO-: 82% PNA+: 82% AO-/PNA+: 65% AO-/PNA-: 18% AO+/PNA-: None Should the AO-/PNA+ regime be sustained, as currently shown on the guidance, opportunities for snowfall will become present. This looks decent Don , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I swear someone wrote a few days ago about how the water temperatures were in the 50s in the ocean off of long island... But looking today, off of montauk, 46℉ Buoy at entrance of NY harbor was at 48 or 49, long Island sound buoys reporting 46℉ as well. I'm not 100% sure if there water or air bit I'm pretty sure there water temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Really strong cold shot relative to our warm winter thus far for early Jan. Looks like lows could hit the teens for many places and highs would be below freezing or in the 20s if gfs is correct. Talk about a wake up call after a +13 or better December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Really strong cold shot relative to our warm winter thus far for early Jan. Looks like lows could hit the teens for many places and highs would be below freezing or in the 20s if gfs is correct. Talk about a wake up call after a +13 or better December. The euro has been even colder--low to mid 20's for Tue for highs, low 30's mon and wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The euro has been even colder--low to mid 20's for Tue for highs, low 30's mon and wed. Here are the week 1 2m temps . Prob a tick too cold, buy you get the idea . N splits are 40/29 . Then go to 39/28 as we get into this period . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 GFS has a low of 15 on Tuesday morning, after a high of 35 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 NAM is 25 for Sunday morning. Much colder than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The weeklies are coming late to the colder party like they missed the record warmth for December on the Nov 22 run. It looks like the the more favorable MJO and record Kara blocking are joining together over the pole for a block fest which surprised the Euro seasonal for January. I guess the seasonal models really can't see these features which pop up in the shorter term. Yeh as they run off the 0z Monday and Thursday ensembles day 15 needs to be quasi correct or you run the risk of running in the wrong direction. The weeklies have been consistent keeping that ridge west of Hudson Bay and if that's right you open up the SE trough . New weeklies tonight at 6 . I think there is a one week pull back after what comes between the 10th and 20th ( which could be a fairly widespread arctic outbreak ) . Only to come back again. So the BN could be an extended one. The Euro and Canadian are on this as it is all directly discharged arctic air. Guys here should not argue a particular storm 10 12 15 days out . Let's just set the pattern and see of it produces. There is a system on the ensembles but too far to grasp. Rather allow the non pattern change guys to die on a vine. It has snowed here in bad patterns and whiffed in great ones. Pattern 1st. Particulars later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The weeklies are coming late to the colder party like they missed the record warmth for December on the Nov 22 run. It looks like the the more favorable MJO and record Kara blocking are joining together over the pole for a block fest which surprised the Euro seasonal for January. I guess the seasonal models really can't see these features which pop up in the shorter term. Just like the LR models have trouble predicting whether we have a -NAO or not in the coming weeks. I believe we will have a productive second half of winter as far as snowfall is concerned. With the NAO wildcard at play, it remains to be seen if its an epic one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Cold Monday night and Tuesday depicted the GFS and Euro Highs in the mid to upper 20s on Tuesday and lows in the upper teens for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I swear someone wrote a few days ago about how the water temperatures were in the 50s in the ocean off of long island... But looking today, off of montauk, 46℉ Buoy at entrance of NY harbor was at 48 or 49, long Island sound buoys reporting 46℉ as well. I'm not 100% sure if there water or air bit I'm pretty sure there water temperatures. Yeah all it takes is a couple days of offshore winds to upwell colder water. This just happened recently. And once we have an (assuming we do) an arctic shot, water temps will plummet. This is why February is game time for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Deep trough in the east on 12z EPS post day 10, nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Upton should issue freeze warnings for tomorrow night. Looks like it's going to be my first freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Wow really cold eps run later in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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