USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Here I'm going to show you the 00z NAM solution and why I think it is very close to becoming a snowstorm for the 2/3rds of eastern New England. 00z NAM shows a primary (Pacific Jet) shortwave over OK and the secondary (Arctic Jet) shortwave over ND. This is at hour 48. Image one is the 48 hour mark at H5. See how the shortwaves are diving southeastward into the long wave trough with H5 low centered over Northern Ontario, Canada province. The second image is the 72 hour H5 depiction on the 00z NAM tonight. Primary shortwave over NYS and the second shortwave is over KY. If these two phase or are able to merge then the arctic shortwave will be able to bring cold air over the Gulf Stream and allow an explosive cyclogenesis to occur. However I give this a mere .5% chance at happening. However I give a merge or phase about 30% chance at happening. Simply put these two images show the evolution of the long wave trough and a few stout shortwaves within the flow. If the second shortwave which is the cold air source can catch up to the primary Pacific jet shortwave then we get a snowstorm as the cold air phases with the moisture source. So I give a snowstorm about a 25% chance at happening if the cold air can catch up with the second low, but this is very small chance. A one in four chance is pretty low. However a few flakes in western SNE could happen while ME and New Brunswick, Canada sees another full fledged snowstorm while Nova Scotia is in another rainstorm. We should see what the next 48 hours bring, I will continue to update everyone with this system according to the latest model runs in this thread. So please stay tuned, there could be a few surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 00z GFS doesn't show as much hope as the 00z NAM had. Maybe I am just wishing something cool happens rather than being realistic about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 There really isn't any room or window for any type of energy transfer for secondary development off the coast. The cold air that does filter in happens behind the passage of the cold front. The main s/w which moves to our north/west is pretty damn strong and is associated with some pretty strong dynamics...quite impressive actually. The NAM shows a 130+ knot 500mb jet (that's freaking insane and about as strong as you'll see at 500mb) which develops as the MLJ max begins to round the base of the trough. This will work to allow for some weakening of the system to take place as occlusion begins to occur and this will work to slow down the eastward progression of the cold front. Just not the pattern to get a snowstorm out of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Why are you even looking at the NAM at 72-84 hours? It is not a mid-range synoptic model, never meant to be used like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 A pattern more conducive for a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 A pattern more conducive for a snowstorm.Occam's razor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I like the enthusiasm. Always a fan of someone who shows heart and hustle, even when things look bleak. You can play for me any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'm looking at the second low idea and the 12z NAM and GFS have come westward with the second low idea as CHH just misses out on the .50 of QPF in the cold air sector of the storm. Still a lot of time to iron out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Good luck James. Reality though is important to consider. In a pattern of abnormally high height in the east systems have less room to dig and hence we have a meh fropa incoming. Jmho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 A comma head develops on the GFS with .50-1" of QPF developing over Eastern ME, if we can trend to faster development along the coastline then cold air filters in and we get a small snowstorm in a pattern of overall Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 It takes more to get snizzle in Cape cod MA USA Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 18z NAM is stronger with the lead shortwave (Pacific in origin) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 18z NAM is stronger with the lead shortwave (Pacific in origin) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Scott, you must have seen the 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 "Do you want to build a snowman" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Scott, you must have seen the 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Scott, you must have seen the 18z NAM? 850mb is cold enough but looks too warm below that at 925mb and surface. But hey I'm hoping you see a few flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Dynamical cooling takes place and the heavy precip cools the column from top to bottom over the comma head region of the second low pressure center. Especially if it continues to get stronger in next few runs, then the dynamic cooling will really take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 There might be some 36F flakes in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 I think it will be a little stronger than a few flakes in SE MA Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I think it will be a little stronger than a few flakes in SE MA Scott.Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 You stop nzucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 You stop nzucker.You are going on and on about something that isn't going to happen based on long-range NAM runs you don't even know how to read.Anyone thinking they're getting a snowstorm this weekend in SNE is kidding themselves. Numerous mets have told you this. Yet you continue the faux analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I think it will be a little stronger than a few flakes in SE MA Scott. I see nothing on the models that remotely project a snowstorm for the area. Not sure where you are seeing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 The NARR is a big hit. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us1220.php#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 The NARR is a big hit. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us1220.php#picture Lock it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Save your energy cape cod for real threats...cuz at this rate you'll be burnt out from too many nam loops by NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 I never get burned out over the weather. I see possibilities and I point them out when I see them. We are about 50 miles off from the cold air arriving in time during the heaviest precip. How can you not be impressed given the pattern we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Holy crap James....you went over the falls. I hope the barrel is sturdy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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