December Banter

[calculus1]

Snowlover91, you may end up being wrong, but you've definitely put some time, effort, and thought into your research, way more than I ever have time for.  Thanks for posting your thoughts in a respectful manner.  There are obviously others who have different opinions about how things will turn out.  All we can do is wait and see...

[Ollie Williams]

Buckeye getting schooled! Maybe she should read more and post less if she cannot back her claims with some form of credible information.... weather ineptitude and asinine statements at its best! 

 

How do we get rid of these northern moderators?  Vote on it or something?  I'll pledge $1000 donation this year to be rid of buckeye and jburns as moderators ($500 a piece) ... then maybe we can "keep" contributing members instead of running them off to other weather boards.

[Ollie Williams]

Snowlover91, you may end up being wrong, but you've definitely put some time, effort, and thought into your research, way more than I ever have time for.  Thanks for posting your thoughts in a respectful manner.  There are obviously others who have different opinions about how things will turn out.  All we can do is wait and see...

+1

[snowlover91]

BriercreekWX???

Check that IP address !!?

 

Nope I've been here for awhile just haven't posted much. I'm from the Pitt county area in Eastern NC. 

[downeastnc]

I'm replying here as not to clutter up the already cluttered up discussion thread  

 

The first bolded: No it doesn't...it points to seasonal 

The second bolded: Let me know how that works out for you

The third bolded: For now those are frontal boundaries because the time period would be for the end of Jan(a month from now) that is NOT significant

The forth bolded: Zonal flow =  warm

The fifth bolded: You simply stating wrong information from what others are saying and taking it as gospel is not a discussion, it's being a Again......zonal flow with a passing front and no blocking the first week of Jan = seasonal temps

 

Way to stick to your guns though

 

Going from huge west coast trough/east coast ridge to zonal/seasonal would in fact be a pattern change no? Snowlover91 is a pretty smart guy I have known him for years your being a little harsh, a lot of what he says is supported.....not sure why your giving him such a hard time.

[snowlover91]

Snowlover91, you may end up being wrong, but you've definitely put some time, effort, and thought into your research, way more than I ever have time for.  Thanks for posting your thoughts in a respectful manner.  There are obviously others who have different opinions about how things will turn out.  All we can do is wait and see...

 

Thank you. I have tried to keep the discussion civil, respectful and back it up with weather data. I am alway open to other options if someone can provide good information why I may be wrong. The name calling and ignoring data presented is frustrating because I have spent hours researching these things myself. I certainly may be wrong and if I am I will readily admit it and examine reasons why. However I feel I have done a thorough job presenting the evidence and even quoted several pro mets who make the same claims as I do (zonal flow leading to possible pattern change, cold Euro weeklies and CFS, etc). 

[buckeyefan1]

I am not stating wrong information from what others are saying this is my analysis as to why I feel the winter flip for early January is on track. You stated in a previous post the Nino was acting like a Nina. This is a direct quote from someone who was clearly wrong and is also who you regurgitate often here.  I went to great lengths to show why. The models are indicating a change the first week of January. Long range GFS, GEFS, EPS and others clearly show a pattern change to zonal. Zonal=seasonal and is not SUBSTANTIAL...it's being a weenie. This is the first step in a pattern change and a big difference from what we have currently seen.  The CFS, as posted in my original post, shows cold anomalies across the south beginning January 5th. It also shows in some members 20"+ of snow across western NC through January. A pattern change is just that, a change of pattern. It doesn't matter if its a change to season, cold or a torch, it is a change from the existing pattern. We are currently in a "torch" pattern so even a "seasonal" one with zonal flow vs ridging East and a trough out west IS a pattern change. 

 

Secondly, I will bring this post back up when we do change to a cold pattern in early January. It's already bookmarked  Good luck with that

 

Third, not sure what weekly you are looking at but the Euro weekly on WxBell shows a nice trough January 2-5th then a brief warmup with zonal flow and ridging in central Canada with another shot of colder air showing up January 10-13th as a southern stream system cranks up. Even at the end of the run, D32, there is massive ridging across the central US with a trough right off the East Coast. Again, a much different pattern than what we are currently seeing. Those are called FRONTAL BOUNDARIES without blocking

 

Forth, you built up a false argument by picking my statement about the zonal flow out of context. Not cool. My full quote about the zonal flow was this, "Already the GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles are picking up on it as their extended range shows a more zonal flow vs the cold west and warm east we've seen. This is another clue which reinforces the idea of a coming pattern change and I for one am excited to see it." Notice I clearly said it is a CLUE which reinforces the idea of a coming pattern change. A zonal flow is much different from a trough out West and a ridge over the East, that is a fact. 

AGAIN....I'll repeat....those are called FRONTAL PASSAGES without BLOCKING 

 

Lastly, you completely disregarded the information I presented from various models like the CFS, JMA, UK, etc. and instead focused on picking statements apart out of the context they were originally written in. I'm repeating what you said....do I really need to go back threw the month and requote what I've already quoted? The evidence is indicative of a coming pattern change early January with cold locking in by January 10th.The 10th isn't the first week quit backtracking, the CFS I presented doesn't show "passing cold fronts" and zonal flow. Neither does the UK or JMA. If you want to say these models are wrong thats fine, but they do clearly indicate cold anomalies across the Deep South after January 5th. GEFS/EPS are taking a step this direction with a change to zonal flow instead of ridging in the East and troughing out West. These are signs and clues pointing to the overall pattern change coming and to ignore this data is not a good choice. It is not a good choice for you to constantly repeat what you read as gospel(or use it as your own). These are your signs and clues to follow....choose wisely

 

[Bevo]

#NERDS

 

#NERDCALLINGISNOTATHINGANYMORE

[DopplerWx]

Thank you. I have tried to keep the discussion civil, respectful and back it up with weather data. I am alway open to other options if someone can provide good information why I may be wrong. The name calling and ignoring data presented is frustrating because I have spent hours researching these things myself. I certainly may be wrong and if I am I will readily admit it and examine reasons why. However I feel I have done a thorough job presenting the evidence and even quoted several pro mets who make the same claims as I do (zonal flow leading to possible pattern change, cold Euro weeklies and CFS, etc). 

please continue posting your thoughts through the winter, your time and research are greatly appreciated.

[snowlover91]

 

I am not stating wrong information from what others are saying this is my analysis as to why I feel the winter flip for early January is on track. You stated in a previous post the Nino was acting like a Nina. This is a direct quote from someone who was clearly wrong and is also who you regurgitate often here.  I went to great lengths to show why. The models are indicating a change the first week of January. Long range GFS, GEFS, EPS and others clearly show a pattern change to zonal. Zonal=seasonal and is not SUBSTANTIAL...it's being a weenie. This is the first step in a pattern change and a big difference from what we have currently seen.  The CFS, as posted in my original post, shows cold anomalies across the south beginning January 5th. It also shows in some members 20"+ of snow across western NC through January. A pattern change is just that, a change of pattern. It doesn't matter if its a change to season, cold or a torch, it is a change from the existing pattern. We are currently in a "torch" pattern so even a "seasonal" one with zonal flow vs ridging East and a trough out west IS a pattern change. 

 

Secondly, I will bring this post back up when we do change to a cold pattern in early January. It's already bookmarked  Good luck with that

 

Third, not sure what weekly you are looking at but the Euro weekly on WxBell shows a nice trough January 2-5th then a brief warmup with zonal flow and ridging in central Canada with another shot of colder air showing up January 10-13th as a southern stream system cranks up. Even at the end of the run, D32, there is massive ridging across the central US with a trough right off the East Coast. Again, a much different pattern than what we are currently seeing. Those are called FRONTAL BOUNDARIES without blocking

 

Forth, you built up a false argument by picking my statement about the zonal flow out of context. Not cool. My full quote about the zonal flow was this, "Already the GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles are picking up on it as their extended range shows a more zonal flow vs the cold west and warm east we've seen. This is another clue which reinforces the idea of a coming pattern change and I for one am excited to see it." Notice I clearly said it is a CLUE which reinforces the idea of a coming pattern change. A zonal flow is much different from a trough out West and a ridge over the East, that is a fact. 

AGAIN....I'll repeat....those are called FRONTAL PASSAGES without BLOCKING 

 

Lastly, you completely disregarded the information I presented from various models like the CFS, JMA, UK, etc. and instead focused on picking statements apart out of the context they were originally written in. I'm repeating what you said....do I really need to go back threw the month and requote what I've already quoted? The evidence is indicative of a coming pattern change early January with cold locking in by January 10th.The 10th isn't the first week quit backtracking, the CFS I presented doesn't show "passing cold fronts" and zonal flow. Neither does the UK or JMA. If you want to say these models are wrong thats fine, but they do clearly indicate cold anomalies across the Deep South after January 5th. GEFS/EPS are taking a step this direction with a change to zonal flow instead of ridging in the East and troughing out West. These are signs and clues pointing to the overall pattern change coming and to ignore this data is not a good choice. It is not a good choice for you to constantly repeat what you read as gospel(or use it as your own). These are your signs and clues to follow....choose wisely

 

 

 

 

I noticed you completely ignored my links to various pro mets and seasoned mets about the indicated zonal flow and how it points to a pattern change. Your statement "zonal is seasonal and is not substantial...its being a weenie" has no evidence to back it up. It is substantial when we have been in a pattern of +15-20F anomalies, a change to "seasonal" in the 50s vs 70s is a major change. When a person resorts to name calling in a debate it is called an Ad Hominem fallacy; in other words rather than providing evidence of your own you simply repeat the same statement. I provide evidence for my position from models, analogs, other forecasters and mets both here on this forum and elsewhere. 

 

Last but not least I'm not backtracking. If you fully read my discussions you will see I call for a pattern change the first week, that is between January 1-7th with colder weather locking in by January 10th. These transitions are impossible to nail down to a specific day this far out but the evidence is for that transition to occur sometime in the 1st week of January and locking in by the 10th. 

[buckeyefan1]

Certainly. I guess you would call "nflwxman" a weenie too then since he agreed with and confirmed my statement? He stated "As snowlover above does point out, the JMA and Euro weeklies don't look bad after the 1st week of January or so.  The JMA has been very accurate going through the progression of winters the last 5 years and has generally whipped the CFSv2.  Perhaps the Nino has overwhelmed all; but I for one, would be shocked to see the JMA be off by THIS much." 

 

This post here between Bob Chill and a pro met talks about the zonal flow and pattern change indications I referenced on the GEFS/EPS ensembles. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47321-december-medlong-range-disco/?p=3797828

 

Isotherm also posted an in depth discussion about the PV weakening with wave 1 activity by late December and then wave 2 activity beginning early January. He believed the PV would probably be displaced and maybe even split if the warming was strong enough. I can go through the various regional forums and link these discussions for your convenience, many pro mets and seasoned forecasters have pointed out the same things I indicated above.

The bolded is exactly why I'm calling you a weenie. This is what you do. You repeat what others have said as your own...the Nino acting like a Nina statement put you solidly in the weenie category. Period. End of discussion.  At least Brick is upfront and obvious with his posts while you constantly skirt the discussion when confronted. Taking what someone else has said and using it as your own is wrong. PERIOD. You have done this. Yes. Therefore YOU ARE A WEENIE. 

[buckeyefan1]

Buckeye getting schooled! Maybe she should read more and post less if she cannot back her claims with some form of credible information.... weather ineptitude and asinine statements at its best! 

 

How do we get rid of these northern moderators?  Vote on it or something?  I'll pledge $1000 donation this year to be rid of buckeye and jburns as moderators ($500 a piece) ... then maybe we can "keep" contributing members instead of running them off to other weather boards.

Please crawl back under the rock from which you came   

[LithiaWx]

I am not stating wrong information from what others are saying this is my analysis as to why I feel the winter flip for early January is on track. I went to great lengths to show why. The models are indicating a change the first week of January. Long range GFS, GEFS, EPS and others clearly show a pattern change to zonal. This is the first step in a pattern change and a big difference from what we have currently seen. The CFS, as posted in my original post, shows cold anomalies across the south beginning January 5th. It also shows in some members 20"+ of snow across western NC through January. A pattern change is just that, a change of pattern. It doesn't matter if its a change to season, cold or a torch, it is a change from the existing pattern. We are currently in a "torch" pattern so even a "seasonal" one with zonal flow vs ridging East and a trough out west IS a pattern change.

Secondly, I will bring this post back up when we do change to a cold pattern in early January. It's already bookmarked

Third, not sure what weekly you are looking at but the Euro weekly on WxBell shows a nice trough January 2-5th then a brief warmup with zonal flow and ridging in central Canada with another shot of colder air showing up January 10-13th as a southern stream system cranks up. Even at the end of the run, D32, there is massive ridging across the central US with a trough right off the East Coast. Again, a much different pattern than what we are currently seeing.

Forth, you built up a false argument by picking my statement about the zonal flow out of context. Not cool. My full quote about the zonal flow was this, "Already the GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles are picking up on it as their extended range shows a more zonal flow vs the cold west and warm east we've seen. This is another clue which reinforces the idea of a coming pattern change and I for one am excited to see it." Notice I clearly said it is a CLUE which reinforces the idea of a coming pattern change. A zonal flow is much different from a trough out West and a ridge over the East, that is a fact.

Lastly, you completely disregarded the information I presented from various models like the CFS, JMA, UK, etc. and instead focused on picking statements apart out of the context they were originally written in. The evidence is indicative of a coming pattern change early January with cold locking in by January 10th. FWIW, the CFS I presented doesn't show "passing cold fronts" and zonal flow. Neither does the UK or JMA. If you want to say these models are wrong thats fine, but they do clearly indicate cold anomalies across the Deep South after January 5th. GEFS/EPS are taking a step this direction with a change to zonal flow instead of ridging in the East and troughing out West. These are signs and clues pointing to the overall pattern change coming and to ignore this data is not a good choice.

TLDR?

The pattern may shift to a less hostile one for snow lovers but it still isn't looking great in the LR.

[snowlover91]

The bolded is exactly why I'm calling you a weenie. This is what you do. You repeat what others have said as your own...the Nino acting like a Nina statement put you solidly in the weenie category. Period. End of discussion.  At least Brick is upfront and obvious with his posts while you constantly skirt the discussion when confronted. Taking what someone else has said and using it as your own is wrong. PERIOD. You have done this. Yes. Therefore YOU ARE A WEENIE. 

 

I'm not taking what someone else said and using it as my own. I noticed the change in the GFS/Euro ensembles last night as they came out. You simply said my statements were a rehash of others which is not true. When I state what others say I give them credit. When it is my own opinion or thought I discuss why I think so, simple as that. You have no argument which is proven by the Ad Hominem attacks on me. It doesn't matter what I post because you claim one of two things:

1. I read behind someone else and rehash it as my own.

2. I am a weenie.

 

In light of this it really doesn't matter what I say or post because you will label it one of those two things without considering the evidence behind my reasoning or discussions. When I reference others or something someone else said I always make it clear that the thought was not original to me and was mentioned someone else. Notice I never claimed Isotherm's data as my own, I referenced him as the originator of it and simply summarized his discussion while giving him full credit. I quoted nflwxman who quoted a post of mine which was original to me, he agreed with my reasoning and statement which was posted before him. In other words he corroborates and agrees with my claim. I referenced Bob Chill and another pro met who likewise mentioned the zonal flow noticed on the models. Is it copying someone just because I notice the same thing on the models as they do?

 

I'm still waiting for your evidence of a warm January and the research behind it. 

[Cold Rain]

TLDR?

The pattern may shift to a less hostile one for snow lovers but it still isn't looking great in the LR.

 

Well, if he believes that the zonal flow period that is being shown in the guidance is the correct step down phase into a colder, more wintry regime, then I see no issue with using that as a supporting piece of evidence.  If the LR guidance turns out to be incorrect, and it may, then we can say that his forecast is incorrect, at least as it relates to an early or mid-Jan flip.

 

IMO, he's laid out his reasoning for a mid Jan pattern change.  We're going to know soon enough if he's right or not.  Right now we can't say he's wrong, though.

[LithiaWx]

I'm not taking what someone else said and using it as my own. I noticed the change in the GFS/Euro ensembles last night as they came out. You simply said my statements were a rehash of others which is not true. When I state what others say I give them credit. When it is my own opinion or thought I discuss why I think so, simple as that. You have no argument which is proven by the Ad Hominem attacks on me. It doesn't matter what I post because you claim one of two things:

1. I read behind someone else and rehash it as my own.

2. I am a weenie.

 

In light of this it really doesn't matter what I say or post because you will label it one of those two things without considering the evidence behind my reasoning or discussions. When I reference others or something someone else said I always make it clear that the thought was not original to me and was mentioned someone else. Notice I never claimed Isotherm's data as my own, I referenced him as the originator of it and simply summarized his discussion while giving him full credit. I quoted nflwxman who quoted a post of mine which was original to me, he agreed with my reasoning and statement which was posted before him. In other words he corroborates and agrees with my claim. I referenced Bob Chill and another pro met who likewise mentioned the zonal flow noticed on the models. Is it copying someone just because I notice the same thing on the models as they do?

 

I'm still waiting for your evidence of a warm January and the research behind it. 

 

There is lots of evidence that we could see a warm January.  You're basically asking us to prove that the sky is blue.  There is much more evidence on these very forums that support a continuation of the pain we have been going through.  What probably happens as Michelle has said over and over again is that we will see some sort of pattern change in January but there is very little credible evidence that it will be a great pattern that supports snowstorms for the SE.  Lastly, a pattern change of any significance in the first week of January is very far fetched with little evidence to support it.  Be patient and realize what you see on the models will likely be pushed back.  It's the nature of pattern changes, very rarely do they materialize as predicted weeks in advance.  Bet on the streak until it actually shows real signs of changing.  You constantly rambling about how everything is lining up perfectly for a major flip in early January does make you a weenie because the evidence of a flip that will benefit us in the snow department isn't showing up yet, if it ever does this season.  I hope your hunch is right but I don't see evidence to support your outlandish opinion.

[snowlover91]

TLDR?

The pattern may shift to a less hostile one for snow lovers but it still isn't looking great in the LR.

 

Not sure what TLDR means?

 

It's a good sign to see, I would much rather ensembles shift towards a zonal look which would put us average or slightly above average  instead of the strong East Coast ridge which sends us into the 70s. Here in the South it's all about timing and even if we get the perfect pattern we would need a good storm with the right track to take advantage of that. A favorable pattern increases your chances of seeing snow but doesn't guarantee it. A zonal flow is a positive development on the Ensembles which needs to continue with that theme. I expect over the next week as they catch on to the pattern change we will see them begin building a ridge out West and a weak trough in the East. 

[LithiaWx]

Well, if he believes that the zonal flow period that is being shown in the guidance is the correct step down phase into a colder, more wintry regime, then I see no issue with using that as a supporting piece of evidence.  If the LR guidance turns out to be incorrect, and it may, then we can say that his forecast is incorrect, at least as it relates to an early or mid-Jan flip.

 

IMO, he's laid out his reasoning for a mid Jan pattern change.  We're going to know soon enough if he's right or not.  Right now we can't say he's wrong, though.

 

Could be but that's a far cry from where we need to be.  We are starting off in such a horrible spot it will take a lot to move us where we need to be for a decent storm to materialize. JMO, your mileage may vary.

 

TLDR means Too long didn't read.

[snowlover91]

There is lots of evidence that we could see a warm January.  You're basically asking us to prove that the sky is blue.  There is much more evidence on these very forums that support a continuation of the pain we have been going through.  What probably happens as Michelle has said over and over again is that we will see some sort of pattern change in January but there is very little credible evidence that it will be a great pattern that supports snowstorms for the SE.  Lastly, a pattern change of any significance in the first week of January is very far fetched with little evidence to support it.  Be patient and realize what you see on the models will likely be pushed back.  It's the nature of pattern changes, very rarely do they materialize as predicted weeks in advance.  Bet on the streak until it actually shows real signs of changing.  You constantly rambling about how everything is lining up perfectly for a major flip in early January does make you a weenie because the evidence of a flip that will benefit us in the snow department isn't showing up yet, if it ever does this season.  I hope your hunch is right but I don't see evidence to support your outlandish opinion.

 

I outlined on the previous page my reasoning with model support. Basically you have the UK, JMA, CFS weeklies all indicating sustained cold for January. Since the UK/JMA only gives a month by month pattern I have no idea when the pattern change occurs on them for January. However they show below normal across the Southeast for the month as a whole which would indicate the pattern is likely changing within the first 10 days. The CFS weeklies released today show cold beginning January 5th and continuing through the end of its run. The GEFS/EPS changed recently from showing a trough out West with a ridge/torch in the East to now showing a zonal flow. Since ensembles are an average of many members they won't suddenly change to a colder pattern, it will be gradual.

 

I have read on here from various mets that the key to note with Ensembles are the trends they show, which IMO, is a better one. Still not great but much better. Last but not least the analog data I presented shows a colder than normal January across the Southeast. The only data I see right now indicating a warm January through the first week is the CFS monthly output and the Canadian Ensembles. The CFS shows much of the same with a torch across much of the Eastern US while the Canadian Ensembles show positive 500mb anomalies across the entire US. Everything else I have access to shows a colder or more favorable pattern beginning the first week of January. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen, however the evidence is out there for this change.

 

Ah gotcha, wasn't sure what TLDR meant. I will say if you want to understand my reasoning it is worth the read. Several on here have benefited from it and I choose to deal with facts vs name calling. Ad Hominem does nothing to reinforce one's position; instead it undermines it and shows the person must resort to personal attacks instead in order to discredit someone's position. 

[buckeyefan1]

I'm not taking what someone else said and using it as my own. I noticed the change in the GFS/Euro ensembles last night as they came out. You simply said my statements were a rehash of others which is not true. When I state what others say I give them credit. When it is my own opinion or thought I discuss why I think so, simple as that. You have no argument which is proven by the Ad Hominem attacks on me. It doesn't matter what I post because you claim one of two things:

1. I read behind someone else and rehash it as my own.

2. I am a weenie.

 

In light of this it really doesn't matter what I say or post because you will label it one of those two things without considering the evidence behind my reasoning or discussions. When I reference others or something someone else said I always make it clear that the thought was not original to me and was mentioned someone else. Notice I never claimed Isotherm's data as my own, I referenced him as the originator of it and simply summarized his discussion while giving him full credit. I quoted nflwxman who quoted a post of mine which was original to me, he agreed with my reasoning and statement which was posted before him. In other words he corroborates and agrees with my claim. I referenced Bob Chill and another pro met who likewise mentioned the zonal flow noticed on the models. Is it copying someone just because I notice the same thing on the models as they do?

 

I'm still waiting for your evidence of a warm January and the research behind it. 

SMH.......you did not say so and so said this when stating the nino is acting like a nina and I said something to you then. I've called out what you have said before when it's not right too. Often questioning where you get your information, but it's not hard to find it if one just snoops around. I will continue to call you out when you make weenielike posts. How hard is that to understand? As for any extended posts on what the pattern may or may not do....it's all in the discussion thread if you care to read it all.  Stop hyping. Stop taking what someone else says and "making it your own". This is not a discussion on a pattern change, it's a discussion of your ethical behavior

[Cold Rain]

Could be but that's a far cry from where we need to be.  We are starting off in such a horrible spot it will take a lot to move us where we need to be for a decent storm to materialize. JMO, your mileage may vary.

 

TLDR means Too long didn't read.

 

I don't disagree.  But we do need to see movement.

[downeastnc]

SMH.......you did not say so and so said this when stating the nino is acting like a nina and I said something to you then. I've called out what you have said before when it's not right too. Often questioning where you get your information, but it's not hard to find it if one just snoops around. I will continue to call you out when you make weenielike posts. How hard is that to understand? As for any extended posts on what the pattern may or may not do....it's all in the discussion thread if you care to read it all.  Stop hyping. Stop taking what someone else says and "making it your own". This is not a discussion on a pattern change, it's a discussion of your ethical behavior

 

This is pretty unfair we have a small message board for mostly eastern NC folks and he has been posting this stuff over there for weeks......I don't see any evidence of him taking info from anywhere else and making it his own.....I mean where exactly is evidence that he is doing that, like I said I have known him 8-10 years, since he was a 16 yr old kid on the small board we have and have watched him turn into a pretty decent hobbyist with a good grasp of this stuff.

[downeastnc]

12Z GFS a lot different at the end of the run fantasy storm for western NC, haven't seen this many times so far this year

 

 

 

[snowlover91]

SMH.......you did not say so and so said this when stating the nino is acting like a nina and I said something to you then. I've called out what you have said before when it's not right too. Often questioning where you get your information, but it's not hard to find it if one just snoops around. I will continue to call you out when you make weenielike posts. How hard is that to understand? As for any extended posts on what the pattern may or may not do....it's all in the discussion thread if you care to read it all.  Stop hyping. Stop taking what someone else says and "making it your own". This is not a discussion on a pattern change, it's a discussion of your ethical behavior

 

Obviously we disagree. Not hyping or making stuff my own. It seems that you have something against me and view all my posts in a negative light, no matter what data I present. If you disagree with my posts thats fine but IMO name calling doesn't do any good. You can make your point known without it. 

 

I haven't been hyping but stating firmly why I think we see a cold January. There is much evidence out there to support this claim from the computer models and analog forecasts I have posted. I don't see how my comment about how this El Nino is acting like a La Nina in some aspects is a copy of anyone? To my knowledge no one on this board or elsewhere has made such a claim and if I read it elsewhere I would have referenced someone. It is a simple statement that some of the typical El Nino features have been missing so far. One of those is that November was warmer than average whereas analogs suggested a cooler than average November. Why did that happen? I am looking into the factors that could have caused this to happen. I think it partially has to do with the strong PV keeping the cold air locked up, but what other factors prevented November from being cooler like analogs suggest? I do not have the answer to this but one theory is that the strength of the El Nino has contributed to that. December has been more like a La Nina in the sense we have seen a -PNA and trough out West with intense ridging in the East. 

 

With a typical El Nino one would expect high anomalies across the Deep South and in California. The CPC 30 day precip anomaly map shows a much different scenario. It shows high anomalies in the central US, below normal in California and average to slightly below average in a few parts of the South. This is taken over the past 30 days. This is a simple observation showing that this El Nino is not behaving exactly as it should, not a copy of anyone else.

[nflwxman]

A few things:

 

1) Strong El Nino analogs are split very close to 50/50 on their progression until January.  Some take the path of 82-83 and other continue with a anomalous NE ridge throughout the winter without significant SJS broadening into the SE US.  The fact this this nino was basin wide obviously argues that it could go either way.  Let's say for argument's sake, the nino is one of the only driving factors in the pattern.  That alone still is not enough to make a definitive call on J-M.  This is not 2009-2010 or 1997-1998 when the analogs were quite clear.

 

2) Aside from the El Nino, there are several individual variables that could "screw" up our expected pattern.  Is a strong southern jet favored?  Absolutely. BUT, It's not a lock though.  The QBO can mess this up if the index is tweaked correctly.  The AO can cause havoc too as we all know.  Weekly stratospheric forecasts are about as accurate as a 300 hour GFS.  It's guidance, not gospel.  The AO flips "phases" 3-6 times of year normally.  We've been in the same phase since mid-october.

 

3) Weekly/month guidance is impacted by the above factors more than the sensible weather itself.  Why do you think extreme patterns are always modeled far out only to verify much more moderate?

 

As I see it, you have several pieces of guidance suggesting an overall colder January for RDU and others suggesting a blowtorch with very little retreat of the ridge.  The guidance and analogs are both split.  Given that, if I was forecasting the temperature anomaly for Jan, I'd say dead 0 at this point.   

 

For Fun.  My WAG- Zonal flow January 7-15 translates to more ridging in Alberta around the 15th.  The AO follows this by going mostly neutral before translating to mild negative around the 20th.  The NAO? Who the heck knows.  This is weeks away, guys.  Our models and experts are only so skilled.

[packbacker]

Obviously we disagree. Not hyping or making stuff my own. It seems that you have something against me and view all my posts in a negative light, no matter what data I present. If you disagree with my posts thats fine but IMO name calling doesn't do any good. You can make your point known without it. 

 

I haven't been hyping but stating firmly why I think we see a cold January. There is much evidence out there to support this claim from the computer models and analog forecasts I have posted. I don't see how my comment about how this El Nino is acting like a La Nina in some aspects is a copy of anyone? To my knowledge no one on this board or elsewhere has made such a claim. It is a simple statement that some of the typical El Nino features have been missing so far. One of those is that November was warmer than average whereas analogs suggested a cooler than average November. Why did that happen? I am looking into the factors that could have caused this to happen. I think it partially has to do with the strong PV keeping the cold air locked up, but what other factors prevented November from being cooler like analogs suggest? I do not have the answer to this but one theory is that the strength of the El Nino has contributed to that. December has been more like a La Nina in the sense we have seen a -PNA and trough out West with intense ridging in the East. 

 

With a typical El Nino one would expect high anomalies across the Deep South and in California. The CPC 30 day precip anomaly map shows a much different scenario. It shows high anomalies in the central US, below normal in California and average to slightly below average in a few parts of the South. This is taken over the past 30 days. This is a simple observation showing that this El Nino is not behaving exactly as it should, not a copy of anyone else.

 

 

Well past strong nino's do see central/OHV highest precip anomaly, the strong east ridge is pushing it a little further west...we are seeing some extreme conditions from this nino for Dec, maybe if it does flip we see some extreme but in a good way.

 

[downeastnc]

A few things:

 

1) Strong El Nino analogs are split very close to 50/50 on their analog progression until January.  Some take the path of 82-83 and other continue with a anomalous NE throughout the winter without significant SJS broadening into the SE US.  The fact this this nino was basin wide obviously argues that it could go either way.  Let's say for argument's sake, the nino is one of the only driving factors in the pattern.  That alone still is not enough to make a definitive call on J-M.  This is not 2009-2010 or 1997-1998 when the analogs were quite clear.

 

2) Aside from the El Nino, there are several individual variables that could "screw" up our expected pattern.  Is a strong southern jet favored?  Absolutely. BUT, It's not a lock though.  The QBO can mess this up if the index is tweaked correctly.  The AO can cause havoc too as we all know.  Weekly stratospheric forecasts are about as accurate as a 300 hour GFS.  It's guidance, not gospel.  The AO flips "phases" 3-6 times of year normally.  We've been in the same phase since mid-october.

 

3) Weekly/month guidance is impacted by the above factors more than the sensible weather itself.  Why do you think extreme patterns are always modeled far out only to verify much more moderate?

 

As I see it, you have several pieces of guidance suggesting an overall colder January for RDU and others suggesting a blowtorch with very little retreat of the ridge.  The guidance and analogs are both split.  Given that, if I was forecasting the temperature anomaly for Jan, I'd say dead 0 at this point.   

 

For Fun.  My WAG- Zonal flow January 7-15 translates to more ridging in Alberta around the 15th.  The AO follows this by going mostly neutral before translating to mild negative around the 20th.  The NAO? Who the heck knows.

 

Lots of good stuff in this and it needs to be in the main thread if ya ask me...

 

It sure does look like there will be a window where things change up and that appears most likely to occur sometime in the first 3 weeks of Jan, at the least it looks like a return to at the least a zonal/season flow is on tap the real question though is what comes after.....im gonna be optimistic and think a good 3-5 weeks of solid blocking is headed our way.....

[buckeyefan1]

This is pretty unfair we have a small message board for mostly eastern NC folks and he has been posting this stuff over there for weeks......I don't see any evidence of him taking info from anywhere else and making it his own.....I mean where exactly is evidence that he is doing that, like I said I have known him 8-10 years, since he was a 16 yr old kid on the small board we have and have watched him turn into a pretty decent hobbyist with a good grasp of this stuff.

They are located in the Discussion thread and the Banter thread

 

Obviously we disagree. Not hyping or making stuff my own. It seems that you have something against me and view all my posts in a negative light, no matter what data I present. If you disagree with my posts thats fine but IMO name calling doesn't do any good. You can make your point known without it. 

 

I haven't been hyping but stating firmly why I think we see a cold January. There is much evidence out there to support this claim from the computer models and analog forecasts I have posted. I don't see how my comment about how this El Nino is acting like a La Nina is a copy of anyone? To my knowledge no one on this board or elsewhere has made such a claim. It is a simple statement that some of the typical El Nino features have been missing so far. One of those is that November was warmer than average whereas analogs suggested a cooler than average November. Why did that happen? I am looking into the factors that could have caused this to happen. I think it partially has to do with the strong PV keeping the cold air locked up, but what other factors prevented November from being cooler like analogs suggest? I do not have the answer to this but one theory is that the strength of the El Nino has contributed to that. December has been more like a La Nina in the sense we have seen a -PNA and trough out West with intense ridging in the East. 

 

With a typical El Nino one would expect high anomalies across the Deep South and in California. The CPC 30 day precip anomaly map shows a much different scenario. It shows high anomalies in the central US, below normal in California and average to slightly below average in a few parts of the South. This is taken over the past 30 days. This is a simple observation showing that this El Nino is not behaving exactly as it should.

 

SMH.....it's acting like a Nino. Period.  Again...this does nothing to help you as you as you regurgitated this when it was posted by a certain met you follow. You are obviously having trouble understanding what I've been saying, so you might want to reread what I've continued to repeat until you do. 

[Shawn]

No thanks to marginal severe/weak tor threat on Christmas Eve around Columbia, SC please.  Yeah, not too crazy but I can do without bad weather at all.

 

[snowlover91]

They are located in the Discussion thread and the Banter thread

 

SMH.....it's acting like a Nino. Period.  Again...this does nothing to help you as you as you regurgitated this when it was posted by a certain met you follow. You are obviously having trouble understanding what I've been saying, so you might want to reread what I've continued to repeat until you do. 

 

Yes for the most part it is acting like a Nino. My point was the precip anomalies indicate its different in some aspects from your Nino years. If you're referencing Larry Cosgrove, yes I do follow him and I use analog forecasting for long range as I find it works quite well. I do my own research and choose my own analog years, if you take the time to look at my analog set and compare it with his you will see I chose only a few years while he chose many different ones and had different reasoning for doing so. Mine was to simply use the strongest El Nino years and use analogs based off of that, his data included many other factors and years which gave him a different result for several of the same months. If I was simply copying him or someone else I would have used the same years and paraphrased his research. I did not do so. Also the La Nina comment he may have made but I am not aware of it if he did make that claim. If he did and I used some of his information I would have referenced him. I am simply observing that there are some differences in this Nino compared with analogs (warm November when it should be cold, precip anomalies are different as well).

 

However I am going to let this discussion rest from here on out. We obviously disagree and the best course of action is to leave it at that. I will continue presenting data from time to time in the main thread about the pattern changes and I hope January/February does verify to be cold and snowy for all of us.