• Member Statistics

    15,844
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NEILwxbo
    Newest Member
    NEILwxbo
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Hoosier

November 16-18 Storm System

Recommended Posts

Here's a loop of low level lapse rates from the 12z GFS.  As you can see, they get better with time on Wednesday into Thursday, and checking some individual forecast soundings, mixing to 800 mb or possibly above is suggested.

 

 

post-14-0-11852000-1447611129_thumb.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Primary low really bombs out by Churchill, MB by Thursday (967mb). Then the Arctic gates unleash the cold on us.

 

 

gfs_T850_namer_17.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAM looks like a weak and slow outlier.

It's amazing that a 997mb low with a ton of rain is weak. (12z NAM, 66 hours, eastern Kansas) vs GFS 988mb, western Minnesota at this time frame. Kinda weird.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

308 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

FULTON-SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-

CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-COLES-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-

JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CANTON...RUSHVILLE...HAVANA...LINCOLN...

BEARDSTOWN...PETERSBURG...WINCHESTER...JACKSONVILLE...

SPRINGFIELD...TAYLORVILLE...DECATUR...SULLIVAN...CHARLESTON...

MATTOON...SHELBYVILLE...GREENUP...MARSHALL...EFFINGHAM...NEWTON...

ROBINSON...FLORA...OLNEY...LAWRENCEVILLE

308 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY

NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL

ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* AS AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST THE NEXT

COUPLE DAYS...IT WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM

THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE...UNUSUALLY COPIOUS FOR THE

MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER...WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF

RAINFALL WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH

TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES FROM

HAVANA TO EFFINGHAM WESTWARD...AND RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 3 INCHES AS

FAR NORTH AS THE I-74 CORRIDOR.

* GIVEN THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THE RAINFALL...THE MAIN THREATS

FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ALONG WITH

PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND ROADS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY

WHERE FALLEN LEAVES HAVE CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.

GEELHART

Sent from my iPhone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

heavy rain event looking increasingly pedestrian IMBY

 

Dry air will need to be overcome.  Looks like there's pretty good consensus for heavier totals out in eastern Iowa/western Illinois.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking like a 0.75"-2.00" rain event across the CWA.

Also still looks like a solid advisory wind event from about mid-day tomorrow through Wednesday morning. Should see some 50mph+ gusts once again in some areas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dry air will need to be overcome. Looks like there's pretty good consensus for heavier totals out in eastern Iowa/western Illinois.

It's been the hot spot since late spring early summer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking like a 0.75"-2.00" rain event across the CWA.

Also still looks like a solid advisory wind event from about mid-day tomorrow through Wednesday morning. Should see some 50mph+ gusts once again in some areas.

 

Kind of sick of the wind

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Up to around 60mph gusts on the NAM.

Looks like mixing could be an issue though, with the ceiling on soundings being around 900mb.

554c87fcbac74b3cb48ef74743a9c9c3.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Up to around 60mph gusts on the NAM.

Looks like mixing could be an issue though, with the ceiling on soundings being around 900mb.

554c87fcbac74b3cb48ef74743a9c9c3.jpg

 

Interesting.  NAM 925mb winds in the 50-55kt range, so these kind of gusts seem like a possibility.  Especially mixing down in some of the heavier showers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting the GFS and NAM are showing 70kts at 850mb wed afternoon here while they both try to put out a line of showers or maybe weak tstorms, surface maps show plenty of 50mph gusts around the same time, I'm wondering if a weak storm line could bring those higher winds down to ground level briefly....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Up to around 60mph gusts on the NAM.

Looks like mixing could be an issue though, with the ceiling on soundings being around 900mb.

554c87fcbac74b3cb48ef74743a9c9c3.jpg

 

 

Those gust maps aside, seems like the local offices are underplaying the winds a bit imo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those gust maps aside, seems like the local offices are underplaying the winds a bit imo.

Agree.

I've read a handful of AFD's from around the area, and ILX was the only one that really entertained the potential for an advisory. LOT really hasn't mentioned the wind potential at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Currently getting the best virga storm of the year. 

 

Not much mention of the wind out this way, strongest term I read was "breezy".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Local grid forecast is only calling for gusts peaking at barely 40mph really early on Wednesday. After seeing the maps above, I have also concluded things are being downplayed by the offices. Thinking it could get windier with heavy showers too.

"Heavy rain and breezy" for tomorrow's wording.

 

A bit damp out there now. It's been sprinkling and drizzling for about 3 hours now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wind gusts still forecasted to be up near 50mph or over.

 

post-7389-0-18179300-1447734445_thumb.pn

 

Rainfall has backed off some, especially the further east you go.

 

gfs_apcpn_us_10.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0.13" so far at home. Breezy this morning. The rest of the day looks like a waves of steady rain.

 

Hawkeye and Cyclone look to cash in the most with rainfall.

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_8.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

dry SE flow doing impressive work, might end up with just a tenth or two...impressive

I thought we were a lock for a washout but we might get away with working the whole day o_o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

dry SE flow doing impressive work, might end up with just a tenth or two...impressive

Overreaction.

Easily over on that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn't seem very dry at the lower levels at least. Ground is damp and it has been drizzling on and off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.