Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential impacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steering currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent manner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes are possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any, Joaquin will have on the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potentialimpacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steeringcurrents are complex and are not being handled in a consistentmanner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes arepossible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any,Joaquin will have on the United States. Is that from the 11PM NHC advisory/discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yes-the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The trend is our friend in NC... so many moving pieces, looks like OTS is getting close to off the table. It's going to hit land somewhere on the east coast! Already a fun and stressful time of year for weather... I usually don't start drinking heavily until winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential impacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steering currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent manner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes are possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any, Joaquin will have on the United States. hard to believe there may not be any impact on the US by reading all the posts on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The trend is our friend in NC... so many moving pieces, looks like OTS is getting close to off the table. It's going to hit land somewhere on the east coast! Already a fun and stressful time of year for weather... I usually don't start drinking heavily until winter Not ready to go there yet and in fact that wont be for certain until its actually coming ashore....if the 00Z runs of the GFS/CMC etc stay with the landfall scenario and the Euro goes to it then chances will be much better but its not for certain by any stretch of the imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Cross posting this from the other post I made in another sub-forum... "Just putting this here. I don't know about the possibility though... not big into tropical weather. I know Ryan is pretty good with this stuff." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Cross posting this from the other post I made in another sub-forum... "Just putting this here. I don't know about the possibility though... not big into tropical weather. I know Ryan is pretty good with this stuff." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Likes been stated it's amazing how out of nowhere this has unfolded today. These late Sept October storms are notorious for blowing up, rapidly Intensefyin. I read stories on Hazel even though it was in the Genesis of satelite Era how it caught the right window of opportunity , fall trof coming in going negative and ventilating as well as excelrating her perfectly to rewrite history. Caught everyone off guard until 48 hrs before she made her move. Not saying this will be a hazel but the October tropical storms are a different breed. Sandy, Hazel, the perfect storm. Got a feeling this one is going to write it's own chapter. based on the different model tracks and consensus posted earlier....if she makes it to a Cat 3 and follows some of the more westerly ones (of which there are at least a dozen) you and I will see winds that we haven't seen since Fran came through. And more rain more than likely.... This got interesting right quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hi all, I have very concerned with flooding issues with this one especially here in Danville, VA (my new location). The Dan river is already at minor flood stage and if 5-10 inches more fall which pretty much every model is showing... lookout.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS out to 90ish hrs no major track shifts yet looks pretty close to 18Z so far not going to be a landfall for NC I am pretty sure...however the PRE event looks like its still on tap most of NC over 4-5" already.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 00z GFS hits at the NC/VA border... low resolution maps.. but something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pretty clear this is going to boomerang back west after the trough cuts off into an upper low this week. That will foce this b/n the massive blocking over southeast canada and the upper low retrograding to the southwest. I'm not sure I've seen a situation like this since hurricane hugo. This is unreal if it actually happens. Better start prepping now if the models stay consistent on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 00z GFS hits at the NC/VA border... low resolution maps.. but something like that. yep another solid 50-75 miles shift SW in landfall point 18Z had it over the VA/MD border now its the NC/VA border.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 15-20 inches of rain in SE NC according to GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pretty clear this is going to boomerang back west after the trough cuts off into an upper low this week. That will foce this b/n the massive blocking over southeast canada and the upper low retrograding to the southwest. I'm not sure I've seen a situation like this since hurricane hugo. This is unreal if it actually happens. Better start prepping now if the models stay consistent on this. Hurricane Fran did it that's why she went so hard NW there was a ULL cut off over western Tenn I believe but I don't have the maps handy...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 yep another solid 50-75 miles shift SW in landfall point 18Z had it over the VA/MD border now its the NC/VA border.... Yep...that was a nasty run, 40-50 knot wind gusts with driving rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 939mb.. 00z GFS.. not sure if that's at landfall .. but close to the coast of NC/VA. I'll let you guys get the higher res maps. Scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Every GFS run has trended SSW today on the precip with a stronger cutoff ULL really pulling it in. Expect some hopping around with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yep...that was a nasty run, 40-50 knot wind gusts with driving rain. If the Euro breaks and comes to a capture solution things will go nuts, luckily I get off work Thur morning and am done for the week so I can do whatever I gotta do to get ready..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Every GFS run has trended SSW today with a stronger cutoff ULL. Expect some hopping around with the models. I still haven't counted out even the SC/NC border at this point. Lots of moving parts going on. Gonna be fun to watch this unfold for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 For those wanting to see the run does a little loop right over southern VA/NC after landfall too.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015093000&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hurricane Fran did it that's why she went so hard NW there was a ULL cut off over western Tenn I believe but I don't have the maps handy...... The only question at this point is if it hits va or nc. Shld be a fun few days of mod watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Mercy that's a lot of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Historic Storm in the making. With the amount of rain from this past storm + the rain from Joaquin + potential high wind speeds + storm surge = disgusting combo. Media hype will begin tomorrow. Everyone from NC to Boston must watch this extremely carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Mercy that's a lot of water that's an incredible gradient between the NC/SC border and Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 At this point if this gets captured and makes landfall it will be life changing for folks in its path. Lots of "ifs" though....let's hope the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pretty clear this is going to boomerang back west after the trough cuts off into an upper low this week. That will foce this b/n the massive blocking over southeast canada and the upper low retrograding to the southwest. I'm not sure I've seen a situation like this since hurricane hugo. This is unreal if it actually happens. Better start prepping now if the models stay consistent on this. I've watched you forecast enough on the winter events to trust your thoughts. For those of us in central NC (a lot of us on this thread), what's the upper ceiling on this? Fran? Or what Hugo did to Charlotte. Apologize for the IMBY nature of it, but if this thing is rapidly strengthening and looking to hook west over us; I want to get my preparations done before the mass rush hits the hardware/grocery stores... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 that's an incredible gradient between the NC/SC border and Charleston. Just N of the ULL there is a massive fetch of precip coming off of the storm as it's pulling it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I've watched you forecast enough on the winter events to trust your thoughts. For those of us in central NC (a lot of us on this thread), what's the upper ceiling on this? Fran? Or what Hugo did to Charlotte. Apologize for the IMBY nature of it, but if this thing is rapidly strengthening and looking to hook west over us; I want to get my preparations done before the mass rush hits the hardware/grocery stores... I've been watching this thread with interest too. I'm hoping to be in Raleigh from Friday noon through Sunday morning. Will businesses shut Friday? Trying to figure out if meetings will be cancelled, etc. Should I move up my timetable and try to get in sooner? Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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