Allsnow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Pretty much set now that tonight is just scattered downpours...gfs well west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Joaquin basically sits in the same spot NE of the Bahamas until it begins to move on Saturday at HR 90 according to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Still more rain to come but by Sunday morning 5-6 inches in the area with Virgina over a foot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Pretty much set now that tonight is just scattered downpours...gfs well westI will gladly forgo tonight's rains altogether for what the GFS shows for Thursday afternoon though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The main surface low associated with Joaquin stays weak and heads OTS. Our rains come from a coastal front and then from the 500mb low as it moves North Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Still more rain to come but by Sunday morning 5-6 inches in the area with Virgina over a foot of rainThere could be huge flooding along the Apps from WV and VA on north if the 2-4" of rain today is accompanied by more rain related to the backing front related to Joaquin. Orographic lift can help too if the flow is from the SE. If I had to guess now, that's where I think a lot of the headlines after this will be. 3" or more of rain in the coastal areas is significant but manageable unless it all falls at once, which it won't in this case. It will be over a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The main surface low associated with Joaquin stays weak and heads OTS. Our rains come from a coastal front and then from the 500mb low as it moves North Saturday. Yep! Looks like 8-10 inches for the metro area...Virgina hit the worst with 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Yep! Looks like 8-10 inches for the metro area...Virgina hit the worst with 10-12 yeah so stop complaining about tonight...LOL. Actually if that verifies we'll be happy we didn't get much tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Yep! Looks like 8-10 inches for the metro area...Virgina hit the worst with 10-12 I'd like to see a slower progression of the trough. It lifts out fairly quickly on the GFS which prevents some of the really prolific totals that we were originally seeing. It would also allow Joaquin to make it further NW with a greater chance of getting captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 12z GGEM still thumps us tonight. Pretty much on its own but I guess not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 yeah so stop complaining about tonight...LOL. Actually if that verifies we'll be happy we didn't get much tonight. You will get your fall feel Thursday-Sunday heavy rain wind temps in the 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 No Fujiwara on the GGEM this turn around. It's going to show a wildly different outcome again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 No Fujiwara on the GGEM this turn around. It's going to show a wildly different outcome again.If you loop it, the gfs still has the Fujiwara.https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeWDross/status/648893050345750528 It prevents the 500mb low from picking up Joaquin and swinging it towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GGEM brings the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GGEM brings the goods. I'm only out to hour 63 on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 You also have former Ida in the mix to make things even more complicated. The weather pattern for Sandy was a lot easier than with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm only out to hour 63 on SV Phases and retrogrades into southern NJ and then rides slowly north into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Phases and retrogrades into southern NJ and then rides slowly north into our area. Nice, probably shows like 40" of rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 My thoughts right now: [1] Significant rainfall - drought denting, if not busting, is probable over the next several days, due to favorable synoptic pattern. An amplified, closed low in the mid levels, to the west of our longitude is a signal in and of itself for heavy rainfall. [2] The pattern appears to be analogous to Atlantic recurvature predecessor rainfall events. The question will be: are models correctly handling the placement of mid/upper level features? The axis of the PRE will be difficult to determine until we approach the time frame. However, the following check points are met on most model data: A) PRE's usually develop to the west of the longitude at which the cyclone sits - this appears to be the case; A; the low level theta-e ridge axis could be close to the coast; C) The Northeast corridor is favorably placed within the right-rear quadrant of an upper level jet streak; D) There is a closed, upper level low and its concomitant trough upstream of the potential PRE. All of those aforementioned variables appear to be present. The problem is that any shifting of the mid/upper level pattern could result in the PRE being focused primarily west or east of us. [3] The effects of Joaquin will be indirect, most likely. I don't think we're looking at a direct cyclone impact. [4] The robust surface ridge in SE Canada is aiding in the moisture convergence, and possible strong coastal winds. The overall impact of the potential event would be significantly less without the presence of the strong high pressure ridge. [5] Rainfall amounts are usually higher than progged in some areas that receive the core of the PRE, while other areas will likely receive less than progged. Exact amounts impossible to determine right now. But a safe bet would probably be at least 1-2" areawide through the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Nice, probably shows like 40" of rain lol The actual subtropical system crushes inland areas with the rain but with that orientation, the coastal flooding and winds will be aimed right for the NYC/LI/NJ metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Pressure way down and recon hasn't hit the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Phases and retrogrades into southern NJ and then rides slowly north into our area. Yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Pressure way down and recon hasn't hit the center Maybe the HWRF and GFDL weren't on crack afterall. When the 00z UKMET came in so much stronger I began to wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Yes please! 967mb into Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The actual subtropical system crushes inland areas with the rain but with that orientation, the coastal flooding and winds will be aimed right for the NYC/LI/NJ metro. Can I ask what source you are using. TropicalTidbits is stuck at hour 66 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Pressure way down and recon hasn't hit the center This could be significant because even the aggressive hurricane models don't have the pressure under 1000 mb until late tonight/early tomorrow, forget the GFS which doesn't take it under 1000 until Thursday. Not saying its going to strengthen significantly, just pointing out none of the models have a great handle on this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 A public service announcement from a tropical weenie: The CMC/GGEM is a worthless tropical model. You need to forget that you actually care about it in the Winter. That's not anecdotal, that's objective NHC forecast track scoring. It's so bad it's excluded from the consensus average tropical track forecasts. It would be like posting lots of maps and discussing the NAVGEM for a February Noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Joaquin is more potent than expected even with 20 kts of shear over it. GGEM is lol worthy but everything it's a forecasting mess so who knows. Today's Euro should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Can I ask what source you are using. TropicalTidbits is stuck at hour 66 as well. Low resolution site meteociel has it. But Wxbell has the hi-res images and it's incredible. Here is the low-res site, meteociel: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=3&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 12z UKMET landfalls in NC sometime on Saturday, then begins coming Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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