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Roger Smith

October 2015 temperature forecast contest

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Predict the anomalies in F deg from the 1981-2010 normal values for OCTOBER ... 

 

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Bonus contest to be announced next month for snowfall dates, this time it will ask for the dates of heaviest seasonal snowfalls rather than the first dates -- don't enter this yet, just a heads up.

 

Provisional scoring has been posted for September in that thread and the seasonal max contest has an updated report too, probably the final scoring now.

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BOS: +1.4

NYC: +1.8

DCA: +1.5

ATL: -0.9

ORD: -1.5

IAH: -1.1

DEN: -2.0

PHX: +1.2

SEA: +0.5

 

 

El Nino Octobers have a penchant for delivering sharp polar airmasses to the center of the country, last evidenced with 2009. 

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Predict the anomalies in F deg from the 1981-2010 normal values for OCTOBER ... 

 

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Bonus contest to be announced next month for snowfall dates, this time it will ask for the dates of heaviest seasonal snowfalls rather than the first dates -- don't enter this yet, just a heads up.

 

Provisional scoring has been posted for September in that thread and the seasonal max contest has an updated report too, probably the final scoring now.

Hope this stops the freefall

 

DCA:-0.7

NYC:0.0

BOS:+0.5

ORD:-1.5

ATL:-0.5

IAH:-0.7

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DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA


+1.6 ____+1.1 ___+0.7 __ -0.3 ___+1.0 ___+0.4 _______+1.4  ___+0.8 ____+2.2


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Forecasts for October 2015

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Midlo Snow Maker ________ +2.3 __ +2.2 __ +2.1 ____ +3.0 __ +0.9 __ +0.7 ____ +1.9 __ +2.2 __ +2.0

Roger Smith _____________ +2.0 __ +2.2 __ +2.5 ____ +0.7 __ +0.3 __ +0.5 ____ +3.0 __ +3.0 __ +5.5

Rjay ____________________+2.0 __ +2.0 __ +1.5 ____ --1.0 __ +1.0 __ +1.5 _____ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ --0.5

dmillz25 _________________+2.0 __ +1.7 __ +1.0 ____ --1.0 __ +1.5 __ +0.5 ____ --1.0 __ +0.5 __ --1.3

Damage in Tolland ________ +1.9 __ +1.3 __ +0.9 ____ +2.2 __ +1.7 __ +2.0 ____ +3.3 __ +2.5 __ +1.9

Mallow __________________+1.6 __ +1.1 __ +0.7 ____ --0.3 __ +1.0 __ +0.4 ____ +1.4 __ +0.8 __ +2.2

wxdude64 _______________ +1.6 __ +0.7 __ +0.9 ____ --2.0 __ --0.6 __ --1.4 ____ --1.7 __ +0.8 __ +2.0

E Pluribus Unum __________+1.5 __ +1.8 __ +1.4 ____ --1.5 __ --0.9 __ --1.1 ____ --2.0 __ +1.2 __ +0.5

wxallannj ________________ +1.5 __ +1.7 __ +1.5 ____ +0.4 __ +1.9 __ +0.9 ____ +1.8 __ +2.3 __ +2.4

Maxim ___________________+1.5 __ +1.5 __ +2.0 ____ +2.0 ___ 0.0 __ +0.5 ____ +2.3 __ +2.0 __ +1.5

SD _____________________ +1.5 __ +1.5 __ +1.0 _____ 0.0 __ +1.0 __ +1.0 ____ +1.0 __ +1.5 __ +1.5

..

Consensus ______________ +1.5 __ +1.2 __ +1.0 ____ +0.4 __ +0.5 __ +0.6 ____ +1.4 __ +1.4 __ +1.7

..

Donsutherland.1 __________ +1.3 __ +1.8 __ +1.3 ____ +0.8 __ +1.0 __ +0.8 ____ +2.0 __ +1.8 __ +2.3

BKViking ____ (--5%) ______ +1.2 __ +1.0 __ +0.9 ____ +0.8 __ +0.4 __ +1.3 ____ +1.3 __ +2.1 __ +1.3

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.1 __ +1.2 __ +0.9 ____ +0.8 __ +0.1 __ +1.1 ____ +0.6 __ +0.6 __ +0.7

blazess556 _______________+0.9 __ +0.6 __ +0.2 ____ +0.4 __ +0.2 __ +0.5 ____ --0.4 __ --0.3 __ --0.7

Tom ____________________+0.8 __ --0.2 __ --0.3 ____ --0.6 __ --0.1 __ --0.3 ____ --0.6 __ --0.2 __ --0.9

Isotherm ________________ +0.7 __ +1.3 __ +1.5 ____ +0.9 __ +0.5 __ +0.6 ____ +2.4 __ +2.2 __ +2.4

Stebo ___________________+0.5 __ +0.7 __ +1.0 ____ +1.5 __ --0.8 __ +0.8 ____ --1.1 __ --1.6 __ --1.3

RodneyS ________________ +0.5 __ +0.4 __ +1.4 ____ --0.3 __ +0.9 __ --1.0 ____ +2.0 __ +0.1 __ +3.5

.. 

Normal ___________________ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 _____ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ______ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0

.. 

ksammut _________________ --0.3 ___ 0.0 __ --0.1 _____ 0.0 __ +0.1 __ +1.6 ____ +0.4 __ +1.8 __ +3.0

Tenman Johnson __________ --0.7 ___ 0.0 __ +0.5 ____ --1.5 __ --0.5 __ --0.7

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Consensus is median value (11th of 21 for first six, mean of 10th/11th for last three, excluding Normal)

 

Good luck and welcome to E Pluribus Unum. Note to a few entrants -- your stations were in a different order, I hope you have the numbers you want and I hope I posted them in the right places.

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This table will be updated every other day now ....

 

_____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

___ (5d) _____ --7.0 _ --4.8 _ --4.8 ____ --2.6 _ --1.9 _ --2.6 _____ +4.4  _ +2.3 _ +3.0

___ (8d) _____ --2.9 _ --1.2 _ --2.6 ____ +1.1 _ +0.2 _ --0.2 _____ +4.4 _ --0.6 _ +3.3

__ (10d) _____ --1.7 __ 0.0 _ --1.6 ____ +0.9 _ +1.1 _ +0.8 _____ +5.7 _ +0.6 _ +4.1

__ (12d) _____ --1.5 _ +0.9 _ --0.4 ____ +2.5 _ +1.1 _ +1.5 _____ +6.6 _ +1.8 _ +4.0

__ (14d) _____ --0.4 _ +1.8 _ +0.6 ____ +2.2 _ +1.4 _ +2.0 _____ +7.6 _ +2.9 _ +3.8

 

___ (p21d) ___  --2.2 _ --0.8 _ --1.5 ____ +0.1 _ --0.7 _ +2.5 _____ +6.2 _ +3.0 _ +4.8

 

___ (p31d) ___  +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 _____ +4.0 _ +2.5 _ +5.0

 

(13th) _ Although it looks quite cold in eastern and central regions around this coming weekend, the current 12z GFS run looks generally +4 to +7 in the outlook period (20th to 29th) and there was no signal for cooling at the end of the run so you could take the p29 as equivalent to p31 for a very early estimate,

although would say the chances are about equal anywhere from zero to +3 for all those +1.5 values.

 

(15th) _ The last ten days of the month continue to show volatility on model runs, today seems a bit more in line with the earlier warm regime, but some runs that came in between were considerably colder. I have backed the end of month projections down slightly but uncertainty remains high.

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I think the model runs are currently rather volatile for that period, will edit this post in a couple of days to begin the daily countdown, but I have edited in new projections in the previous post. The seven-day forecasts will hit their lowest point in about five or six days from now and then begin to recover, so at some point there will be lower values than shown there.

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Continuing the anomaly tracker daily now to end of month ...

 

__ (16d) _____ --0.3 _ +1.7 _ +0.7 ____ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +2.1 _____ +7.0 _ +3.6 _ +4.0

__ (17d) _____ --0.7 _ +1.2 _ +0.3 ____ +1.2 _ +1.1 _ +2.0 _____ +7.2 _ +3.7 _ +4.2

__ (18d) _____ --1.4 _ +0.5 _ --0.4 ____ +0.8 _ +0.6 _ +1.7 _____ +7.6 _ +3.8 _ +4.3

__ (19d) _____ --1.9 _ --0.2 _ --1.1 ____ +1.2 _ +0.2 _ +1.3 _____ +7.7 _ +3.7 _ +4.4

__ (20d) _____ --1.9 __ 0.0 _ --0.9 ____ +1.8 _ --0.1 _ +1.1 _____ +7.8 _ +3.5 _ +4.4

__ (21d) _____ --1.7 _ +0.5 _ --0.6 ____ +2.4 __ 0.0 _ +1.4 _____ +7.3 _ +3.1 _ +4.5

__ (22d) _____ --1.4 _ +1.0 _ --0.1 ____ +2.5 _ +0.2 _ +1.7 _____ +6.7 _ +2.8 _ +4.3

__ (23d) _____ --1.2 _ +1.0 _ --0.2 ____ +2.8 _ +0.5 _ +2.1 _____ +6.5 _ +2.6 _ +4.1

__ (24d) _____ --1.2 _ +0.7 _ --0.5 ____ +2.9 _ +0.8 _ +2.1 _____ +6.3 _ +2.6 _ +4.1

__ (25d) _____ --0.9 _ +0.8 _ --0.3 ____ +2.9 _ +0.9 _ +1.8 _____ +6.4 _ +2.7 _ +4.2

__ (26d) _____ --1.0 _ +0.7 _ --0.4 ____ +2.7 _ +0.9 _ +1.7 _____ +6.3 _ +2.9 _ +4.1

__ (27d) _____ --1.1 _ +0.6 _ --0.6 ____ +2.8 _ +0.6 _ +1.7 _____ +6.1 _ +2.9 _ +4.1

__ (28d) _____ --0.8 _ +0.9 _ --0.4 ____ +2.6 _ +0.8 _ +1.8 _____ +5.9 _ +3.0 _ +4.1

__ (29d) _____ --0.5 _ +1.3 _ +0.1 ____ +2.3 _ +0.9 _ +1.7 _____ +5.7 _ +3.0 _ +4.2

__ (30d) _____ --0.5 _ +1.3 _ +0.2 ____ +2.2 _ +0.9 _ +1.8 _____ +5.4 _ +2.8 _ +4.4

_

___ (p31d) ___ --0.6 _ +1.1 __  0.0 ____ +2.2 _ +0.8 _ +1.8 _____ +5.6 _ +2.7 _ +4.4

 

Note that NYC has now been confirmed at +1.1 after some earlier problems with missing data. This completes the countdown and scoring will soon be completely updated.

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Thinking ORD will end up more like between 1.0 to 1.5 (even that might be too low), but we shall see.

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The model runs are flipping and flopping around for the last week of the month. I based today's projection on the 06z GFS, will have a look at the 12z GFS and perhaps make an adjustment, but in any case I don't expect much stability in these projections until maybe the 21st or 22nd. Almost every forecast seems to be in play so far, although I like my chances in the western contest the way things are going.

 

(edit _ I did have a look at 12z GFS and based on that being slightly tilted relative to 06z towards what the previous posters were saying, I have adjusted the numbers and towards what they suggested. It may all look different tomorrow however.)

 

(added 20th) _ The latest 12z GFS appeared similar but maintained cool northeast winds a bit longer for BOS near end of the month so I took another 0.5 off their provisional. Most of the others remain unchanged but with an uncertainty of at least 1.0 so that I will hold off on any provisional scoring until maybe Thursday.

 

On today's provisional numbers, the highest score I can see in the main contest would be ksammut with 530 but I consider the scoring situation to be highly volatile. At the moment I have 260 in the west. Only PHX appears to be "in play" to change differentials in the west. I can't rule out any of the nine stations for an extreme forecast win for somebody and the range for ATL is tight enough that I can't even rule out either end of the range there!

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