FallsLake Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 18z NAM now has the precip focus on SC. Still over .25 up towards RDU but definitely a continued shift towards the euro. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_057_precip_p36.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=precip_p36&fhr=057&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151008+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 18z NAM now has the precip focus on SC. Still over .25 up towards RDU but definitely a continued shift towards the euro. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_057_precip_p36.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=precip_p36&fhr=057&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151008+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 It's quicker with the ULL and never closes it off like the UK and Euro/EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 18z GEFS coming in wetter, looks very EPS like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 18z GEFS coming in wetter, looks very EPS like. The 3/4 inch is much more widespread now through the SC area. Our local guy's model updated live on air and he cut it pretty quick while saying .25/.50 and now he has changed his forecast to .50/1.00. If those 12z OP Euro totals verify (some 2.5 - 3.5 inch+ amounts) in spots.. that's enough to start causing damage again down this way in SC I'd think... as it has to run off right back into the lakes and rivers/ponds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 The 3/4 inch is much more widespread now through the SC area. Our local guy's model updated live on air and he cut it pretty quick while saying .25/.50 and now he has changed his forecast to .50/1.00. If those 12z OP Euro totals verify (some 2.5 - 3.5 inch+ amounts) in spots.. that's enough to start causing damage again down this way in SC I'd think... as it has to run off right back into the lakes and rivers/ponds. Local news here in Raleigh expressed concern over this cutting off and dropping some additional heavy rains in SC. Latest GFS trended wetter with widespread .50 now in SC and higher amounts of .75-1" in some places, much wetter and more like the Euro. Could be really bad if they get a quick 1-2" on top of saturated ground and full rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 The heaviest rains should be over Northern South Carolina. As previously mentioned, this is much more progressive pattern and there isn't a tropical connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 12z nam closes off. Has a bullseye over lookouts house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 12z nam closes off. Has a bullseye over lookouts house. Yeah, RGEM does too, has some intense bands over central SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 HPC has widespread 1-1.5" amounts over SC. High resolution models like the 4km NAM and RGEM are showing intense banding in SC dropping local amounts of 2-3" in some areas. If this happens it would be a heavy amount in a short time period, not going to help with cleanup efforts and areas still flooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Damn Euro will be a lot of accumulation for Richland and the coast it looks like. UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Damn Euro will be a lot of accumulation for Richland and the coast it looks like. UGH Yep...SC washout on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 The Euro has a lot of 2" totals in NE SC. At least the Charleston and Columbia areas don't look that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Here, this is what I am seeing from the 12z run. With the current situation, I'd say it needs a post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Here, this is what I am seeing from the 12z run. With the current situation, I'd say it needs a post. 5 inch bullseye right over Blythewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 18z 4km NAM similar to the Euro, showing intense banding through central SC, it's a little south of Euro, but close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Lets hope the CMC is right about this......that would be first frost for the western piedmont of NC and damn close further east....it would be a few weeks early for most if it happens..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 This is bad... MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0570NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD208 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SCCONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLEVALID 100607Z - 101207ZSUMMARY...AN INVADING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NEARBY LEE TROUGH AREEXPECTED TO ACT AS THE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALLDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.75"COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER SATURATED SOILS/FLOOD PLAINS.DISCUSSION...A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE IS SEEN ON INFRAREDSATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS. TO ITS EASTAND SOUTHEAST, TWO STREAMS OF THE WESTERLIES WERE NOTED, WITH THEPOLAR JET UP NEAR THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND MASON-DIXON LINE WHILETHE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND SC. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN FORMING/SPREADING DOWNWIND ACROSS WEST-CENTRALSC NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AT THESURFACE, A FRONTAL ZONE WAS INVADING FROM NORTHERN GA AND THEWESTERN CAROLINAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.5" ARE INTHE AREA PER GPS INFORMATION. WINDS ARE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUTOF THE WEST. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WERE SEEN ON RECENTSPC MESOANALYSES NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER.THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE WEAK LEE TROUGH ACROSS SC AND THEINVADING FRONTAL ZONE TO ACT AS FOCI FOR CONVECTION. LOW-LEVELINFLOW IS BECOMING MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS OF LATE, WHICHSHOULD ALLOW THE INSTABILITY NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER TO BE TAPPED.DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD BECOME STRONGER AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVESACROSS TN, CLOSER TO THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREEXPECTED TO CLIMB FURTHER TO 1.75", 1.5-2 SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEANFOR MID-OCTOBER. EVEN THOUGH LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK --UNDER 20 KTS -- THE 850-400 HPA MEAN WIND SHOULD CARRY CONVECTIONIN AN EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS ~25 KTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASETHE CLOUD BASE INFLOW AT THE STORM SCALE. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEARIS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH 25-35 KTS NOTED INRECENT RAP RUNS. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS THE POSSIBILITY OFCELL TRAINING, ALSO SHOWN WITHIN MEMBERS OF THE CAM GUIDANCE,CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SCATTERED INNATURE AS GALVEZ-DAVISON INDICES BASED ON THE 00Z GFS ARE IN THE25-30 RANGE WHICH SHOULD KEEP CELL TRAINING TO SHORT, TRANSIENTBANDS. THE CAM GUIDANCE, OUTSIDE OF RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS, ISQUITE AGREEABLE ON A NARROW STRIPE OF 2-4" FALLING ACROSS PORTIONSOF SC, WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY. THIS DEGREE OF RAINFALL WOULDTHREATEN THE MODEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA AND BENEAR THE 10 YEAR RECURRENCE INTERVAL, HINTING THAT FLASH FLOODINGIS POSSIBLE. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN RATES UPTO 1.75". CONSIDERING SATURATED SOILS AND OVERFLOWED FLOOD PLAINSWITHIN PORTIONS OF SC, FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR.ROTHATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Lets hope the CMC is right about this......that would be first frost for the western piedmont of NC and damn close further east....it would be a few weeks early for most if it happens..... gem_T2m_seus_41.png Darn cold next week, EPS agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 10, 2015 Author Share Posted October 10, 2015 Darn cold next week, EPS agrees. looks cold in the Carolinas. Elsewhere doesn't look as cold, if I'm looking at this map right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 looks cold in the Carolinas. Elsewhere doesn't look as cold, if I'm looking at this map right.That's all that matters, nobody cares about Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 That's all that matters, nobody cares about Georgia Except for people who live in Georgia, which makes up a decent portion of this Southeast Wx Forum, including myself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Except for people who live in Georgia, which makes up a decent portion of this Southeast Wx Forum, including myself! I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic since this is a long running topic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Except for people who live in Georgia, which makes up a decent portion of this Southeast Wx Forum, including myself! I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic since this is a long running topic here. LOL!!! Welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 LOL!!! Welcome to the board! Yes, it was mostly in jest! Snowstorm2011/ JAC, is one of our best posters from GA! Look forward to his insight / thoughts often! Welcome! Don't let NC be out of a snowstorm, there will be almost no posts or info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 LOL!!! Welcome to the board! Thanks! Been a longtime lurker here and decided why not sign up. Liking all the talk/posts of a strong Nino this Winter. Hopefully we can get lucky and cash in on a couple good winter storms, since it appears we'll definitly have our fair share of moisture. What part of Canton are you in? I'm about 3 miles from Cherokee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Looks a little frosty ( possibly ) next weekend or early that next week! Even outside the mountains , upper 30s look very possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Thanks! Been a longtime lurker here and decided why not sign up. Liking all the talk/posts of a strong Nino this Winter. Hopefully we can get lucky and cash in on a couple good winter storms, since it appears we'll definitly have our fair share of moisture. What part of Canton are you in? I'm about 3 miles from Cherokee. I'm Closer to Holly Springs now. Between Canton and Holly Springs. Moved a little south since I signed up, used to live off highway 20 towards Macedonia. Next weekend looks like we could get some decently cooler temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Looking like the first real threat of a frost ( for NC and upstate SC/GA ) is building for next weekend into next week and even if it doesnt frost it looks like multiple nights down around 40 for a lot of us...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 ummmm brrrrrr teens in the mts......widespread freeze western NC/VA...GFS 15-20 degrees warmer same frame although last run it was close to the CMC....at least the CMC is consistent with the cold the GFS goes back and forth every run.....shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 ummmm brrrrrr teens in the mts......widespread freeze western NC/VA...GFS 15-20 degrees warmer same frame although last run it was close to the CMC....at least the CMC is consistent with the cold the GFS goes back and forth every run.....shocker gem_T2m_seus_37.png And it doesn't take 2M tempts at freezing to get frost. ~37 is the magic number to start getting frost at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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