CT Rain Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 lol the NAM is pretty wild for Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 SREF nicely shows the double threat tomorrow with higher severe probs around 9z-12z and then a renewed chance during the later afternoon. Looking at the deterministic runs you can see a few issues tomorrow... one being that the best upper level forcing holds off until after 00z. No real height falls to speak of during the day on Tuesday. The absence of some synoptic lift could create an issue and leave us essentially capped. The second issue is what the low level moisture profile looks like... quite a discrepancy between some of the models right now with the NAM being the most juicy and the Euro being bone dry for the most part. So we've got a couple chances tomorrow for SNE... it will be interesting to see how things evolve. Given the potential for high CAPE/high shear it's certainly worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 SREF nicely shows the double threat tomorrow with higher severe probs around 9z-12z and then a renewed chance during the later afternoon. Looking at the deterministic runs you can see a few issues tomorrow... one being that the best upper level forcing holds off until after 00z. No real height falls to speak of during the day on Tuesday. The absence of some synoptic lift could create an issue and leave us essentially capped. The second issue is what the low level moisture profile looks like... quite a discrepancy between some of the models right now with the NAM being the most juicy and the Euro being bone dry for the most part. So we've got a couple chances tomorrow for SNE... it will be interesting to see how things evolve. Given the potential for high CAPE/high shear it's certainly worth watching. You can see the signs there on the Bufkit soundings. There is just a hint of a of an inversion just about the mixed layer much of the day, that really doesn't get erased until later in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 You can see the signs there on the Bufkit soundings. There is just a hint of a of an inversion just about the mixed layer much of the day, that really doesn't get erased until later in the afternoon. Yeah it's probably why models are so stingy with QPF. Not sure low level convergence along the stalled out front (more like dew point discontinuity) will be able to overcome that CIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 You can see the signs there on the Bufkit soundings. There is just a hint of a of an inversion just about the mixed layer much of the day, that really doesn't get erased until later in the afternoon. WSI's 4km RPM blows up a nasty looking cell near PVD around noon tomorrow and brings it to Boston. Meanwhile, S NH and S ME get crushed with a few discrete looking storms lining out by late afternoon with a nasty squall line to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmac Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 WSI's 4km RPM blows up a nasty looking cell near PVD around noon tomorrow and brings it to Boston. Meanwhile, S NH and S ME get crushed with a few discrete looking storms lining out by late afternoon with a nasty squall line to the coast. Music to my... eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Tonight or bust for GC it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 You can see the 12z NAM tries to dry a bit at 700mb, but plenty of juice below that towards 850mb. That's usually a good thing. Mid level drying isn't the worst in the world either, so long as deep moisture exists below that. Otherwise, NAM is pretty much bun city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 WSI's 4km RPM blows up a nasty looking cell near PVD around noon tomorrow and brings it to Boston. Meanwhile, S NH and S ME get crushed with a few discrete looking storms lining out by late afternoon with a nasty squall line to the coast. Models are definitely hit or miss for tomorrow. NMM says yes, ARW says no. NAM parameters look good, but it doesn't develop any convection. NCAR ensembles are bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 You can see the 12z NAM tries to dry a bit at 700mb, but plenty of juice below that towards 850mb. That's usually a good thing. Mid level drying isn't the worst in the world either, so long as deep moisture exists below that. Otherwise, NAM is pretty much bun city. ML drying is great for lapse rates. Just don't start shriveling the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 GFS seems a bit faster than the NAM. Probably more of a SE MA and RI deal verbatim, tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Prefrontal trough looks like it's edging into VT now. Our neighbors to the north (Environment Canada not CAR) are already issuing SVRs too. Both the HRRR and the NAM are ripping a pretty good bow into NH by 22z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Prefrontal trough looks like it's edging into VT now. Our neighbors to the north (Environment Canada not CAR) are already issuing SVRs too. Both the HRRR and the NAM are ripping a pretty good bow into NH by 22z or so. What is the timing for rainfall in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 What is the timing for rainfall in this area? You may be pretty late, like overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 You may be pretty late, like overnight. Perfect thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 There is essentially no-to-very little CAPE in the Slight risk area to our west. Pre-frontal trough is evident on visible from west of ALB to just east of BVT. I would surmise that this becomes the focus of convective activity today a la the HRRR. Maybe GC and Worcester County can see something fun today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 There is essentially no-to-very little CAPE in the Slight risk area to our west. Pre-frontal trough is evident on visible from west of ALB to just east of BVT. I would surmise that this becomes the focus of convective activity today a la the HRRR. Maybe GC and Worcester County can see something fun today. I agree, that was my focus in my morning update. MCD just issued that states as much too. Watch probability 40%, but that's much higher than the last few events we had (which resulted in a handful of warnings each day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 SPC noted the CXX VWP showing 50 knots at 4 km. That's not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Outside looking in it seems today, We could use a decent drink here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Watch out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 ALY will have MESO-SAILS up and running for today's event. So ENX will get up to 3 additional 0.5 degree slices during each volume scan. Roughly a 0.5 degree image every 90 seconds or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Seems a huge watch box - 4+ degrees of latitude. Hope that's an interesting sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 I had written off this event and now I'm all sucked back in. So stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmac Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 I just realized I am not included in the watch. ughhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 HRRR brings what looks like that activity west of ALB and forms a line moving all the way through central mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 I just realized I am not included in the watch. ughhhh Well the threat was always going to be northern and western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Interesting difference in modeling tomorrow. The NAM has very impressive dew points around 850 hpa resulting in mega-CAPE. About 15C at HFD in the afternoon. The GFS... not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Just sit back and watch the towers to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmac Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Well the threat was always going to be northern and western areas. True. The threat always IS going to be N and W of me. Just kidding. I cant help getting excited all the time about these patterns the more I learn though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Not expecting much here...bad timing for me or should I say normal timing around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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