FallsLake Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I also like the "dry" part of the forecast from CA to AL!! They must really do good research on their " secret" formula for predicting weather! Brick could tell you that a niño will bring wet across the whole southern third of the country! Sad thing is that there's a lot of people that blindly believe in these crap forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 ^ Falls, that's the Farmers Almanac, not to be confused with the Old Farmer's Almanac. Here's the map for the Old Farmer's Almanac, which unfortunately will have us frequently hearing the term "Mid-South winter". :( winter2015580.jpg this map is so funny, especially if you live in and around atlanta. For my area, " normal temps and dry". Northern suburbs, " cold and snowy". South and east suburbs " cold and wet". Just incredible. Normal temps and dry here and a cold and snowy winter 10 miles to my north. Did a 4 year old draw this map ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 So basically N of 85 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 So basically N of 85 right? N and W of 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I think it's going to be a big winter for snow here. We have the El Nino in our favor, and should be on the upswing now of the 30 year averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 I also like the *trends* of some things for a nice winter in the SE. Doesn't take much, to be above normal, but takes a bunch to get it snow..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I think it's going to be a big winter for snow here. We have the El Nino in our favor, and should be on the upswing now of the 30 year averages. True, but still better to expect nothing than to expect above average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I think it's going to be a big winter for snow here. We have the El Nino in our favor, and should be on the upswing now of the 30 year averages. True, but still better to expect nothing than to expect above average snowfall. Is it winter already?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 this map is so funny, especially if you live in and around atlanta. For my area, " normal temps and dry". Northern suburbs, " cold and snowy". South and east suburbs " cold and wet". Just incredible. Normal temps and dry here and a cold and snowy winter 10 miles to my north. Did a 4 year old draw this map ?? Lol, yeah their maps are terrible, perennially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I'm in the cold and snowy part! Raleigh can suck it! Sucks for you to be in the bullseye two seasons out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I'm telling y'all, the woolly worm says: stock pile the firewood , it's going to be a long ,cold winter! Still waiting on the persimmon seeds to develop ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Sucks for you to be in the bullseye two seasons out! Two words: 18 hundreds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I'm telling y'all, the woolly worm says: stock pile the firewood , it's going to be a long ,cold winter! Still waiting on the persimmon seeds to develop ! I'm in normal temps and dry. Sucks. Winter cancel. At least Waycross is in the cool and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Two words: 18 hundreds! Actually, that's two numerals and a single word...followed by a punctuation mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I'm on board for a good winter for a good chunk of the SE! Above normal snow/Ice, not sure about the cold? Think it may be a lot of marginal cold. probably not much very cold air..... I can see a lot of 35-40 degree rains But just one or two cold enough and we're above normal in the snow/ice.... Says my gut!!! That's my winter forecast, took me 5 minutes to come up with it... lol Good Luck everyone! Hope you all get some snow. Thanks for taking the time to read this well thought out forecast.... EDIT: May update sometime before February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Actually, that's two numerals and a single word...followed by a punctuation mark.Eighteen hundreds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Eighteen hundreds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 ^ Falls, that's the Farmers Almanac, not to be confused with the Old Farmer's Almanac. Here's the map for the Old Farmer's Almanac, which unfortunately will have us frequently hearing the term "Mid-South winter". :( winter2015580.jpg Not to worry, they had cold and snowy centered in the Southeast last year, as did most sources, and they missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 this map is so funny, especially if you live in and around atlanta. For my area, " normal temps and dry". Northern suburbs, " cold and snowy". South and east suburbs " cold and wet". Just incredible. Normal temps and dry here and a cold and snowy winter 10 miles to my north. Did a 4 year old draw this map ?? Yeah but you have to realize, there is going to be a dividing line somewhere and the Atlanta Metro area is as large as the whole Upstate of South Carolina, so that's not as strange as it may seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Ok....here we go. I'll stick my neck out. Here's my favorite analog years for this winter. 3 of them are the favorites of a very objective, knowledgeable person I know. So...that gives me a little confidence:The years are: 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1986-87, 2009-10Some of these years I chose for ENSO forcing reasons only. Some location, one based on the strength of the EL NINO alone (82-83). Other years were chosen based on Pacific & Atlantic state. Others due to high latitude blocking. Of course...one will look in vain for perfectly matching analogs for the current global state right now.1982-83 is a risk for this analog compilation for the simple fact the NAO was very positive. I do not expect that, but I do like it for ENSO purposes. If NAO was a little closer to neutral it would've be a much more helpful analog. If you take that year away the analog looks similar to JAMSTEC August update. 1997-98 was not chosen as an analog for the due fact it was a fireball, east-based El Nino. Regions 1 & 2 were unbelievably warm. The evolution of this Nino does not resemble the evolution of that Nino at all at this point.Anyway, here we go.ENSO REGIONS:DJF TEMP ANOMALY:PRECIP500mbStill just having fun right now. The direction of things can change quick & therefore analog years can change also by NOV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 26, 2015 Author Share Posted August 26, 2015 Nice work stadium. We will be happy campers down here if you are right. For me right now, it's all about that base, bout that base....as in the nino base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Analogues? Just as soon read "See Spot Run". Remember last winter? Or the one before ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 26, 2015 Author Share Posted August 26, 2015 What should we use in lieu of analogs Gainesville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 What should we use in lieu of analogs Gainesville?Persimmon seeds! Have about the same accuracy! The flaw in analogs is they are suppose to be a guide, they are horribly incorrect most times because there are so many variables and no two events are ever exactly the same. That's why the models can hardly get a 3-5 day forecast right, much less looking at the past to predict the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 All I want to know is how much in my backyard?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Persimmon seeds! Have about the same accuracy! The flaw in analogs is they are suppose to be a guide, they are horribly incorrect most times because there are so many variables and no two events are ever exactly the same. That's why the models can hardly get a 3-5 day forecast right, much less looking at the past to predict the future. Couldn't even get storm forecasts right the day they were supposed to happen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 Persimmon seeds! Have about the same accuracy! The flaw in analogs is they are suppose to be a guide, they are horribly incorrect most times because there are so many variables and no two events are ever exactly the same. That's why the models can hardly get a 3-5 day forecast right, much less looking at the past to predict the future. That's how they are used....as a guide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Thanks for posting, stadiumwave. Appreciate the time and effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 N and W of 85 As a resident a couple miles NW of I-85, I'm in. It's nice Mother Nature follows road boundaries like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Ok....here we go. I'll stick my neck out. Here's my favorite analog years for this winter. 3 of them are the favorites of a very objective, knowledgeable person I know. So...that gives me a little confidence: The years are: 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1986-87, 2009-10 Some of these years I chose for ENSO forcing reasons only. Some location, one based on the strength of the EL NINO alone (82-83). Other years were chosen based on Pacific & Atlantic state. Others due to high latitude blocking. Of course...one will look in vain for perfectly matching analogs for the current global state right now. 1982-83 is a risk for this analog compilation for the simple fact the NAO was very positive. I do not expect that, but I do like it for ENSO purposes. If NAO was a little closer to neutral it would've be a much more helpful analog. If you take that year away the analog looks similar to JAMSTEC August update. 1997-98 was not chosen as an analog for the due fact it was a fireball, east-based El Nino. Regions 1 & 2 were unbelievably warm. The evolution of this Nino does not resemble the evolution of that Nino at all at this point. Anyway, here we go. ENSO REGIONS: DJF TEMP ANOMALY: PRECIP 500mb Still just having fun right now. The direction of things can change quick & therefore analog years can change also by NOV. Here's the month by month breakdown using the same analogs: DEC JAN FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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