Hoosier Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 mini bow pointed right down 88 into the city...doubt it holds together Warning was cancelled. Still has a decent wind signature though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 2" PWATs just about cover the entire state of Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1128 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1125 AM FLASH FLOOD PEOTONE 41.33N 87.80W 06/15/2015 WILL IL CO-OP OBSERVER 1.26 INCHES BETWEEN 1058 AM AND 1125 AM WITH 1 INCH FALLING IN 14 MINUTES. STREETS ARE FLOODED ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF TOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Mini back building in southern will county... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 impressive preconditioning rains, especially since LOT sounds relatively confident in more widespread rains later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 60 DBZ on that inbound I-88 cell....borderline svr IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 60 DBZ on that inbound I-88 cell....borderline svr IMHO. Has strengthened the last few scans after looking a bit ragged. Sugar Grove area should see some good wind gusts with this as it moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 60 DBZ on that inbound I-88 cell....borderline svr IMHO. Nice reflectivity gradient with it and it seems like perhaps an uptick in velocity on last scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 impressive preconditioning rains, especially since LOT sounds relatively confident in more widespread rains later this evening. Cells starting to form sw of Peoria down the Illinois River Valley moving ne. Your area is certainly primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Nice reflectivity gradient with it and it seems like perhaps an uptick in velocity on last scan. Its on a beeline for the city. Will likely create flash flooding throughout the cities and on the poorly draining expressways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Nice reflectivity gradient with it and it seems like perhaps an uptick in velocity on last scan. Not much visually as expected given the 75/70 environment here. Waiting for it here in one of my spots, so many low clouds but little shelf coming into view now. Really going to dump some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Sun is out again....black clouds to the west moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Little storm popped up and has moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 heavy showers...endor climo in full effect today A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THUNDERIS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IN THIS MESSYWEATHER PATTERN. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ISLIKELY WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THEPREFRONTAL AIRMASS. VISIBILITIES IN THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD EASILYFALL UNDER A MILE FOR BRIEF PERIODS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGHA SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FOLLOWING THE CURRENT AREAOF THUNDERSTORMS...IT APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOPAND IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERAL HOURS OFTHUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY OVER THE TERMINALSFROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Little storm popped up and has moved in. I noticed from the rain pelting the windows. Decent little downpour on campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Both 12z GGEM AND UKIE appear faster with the tropical low and Ukie has it under 1000mb for a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Gusty buckets for 15 minutes now....typical local flooding for now Edit....beyond typical now...standing water everywhere....street, yards....still raining, but has let up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Another 0.98" this morning. Now 6.47" for June. My brother about 7 miles northwest this morning had over 2" in a little over an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ovweather Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Send some of that rain south, please! Short-term drought conditions have set in down here. Only 1.50" total of rain in my backyard since late April. Amazing how fast it went from being super-wet to super-dry. The southeast ridge is a killer right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Both 12z GGEM AND UKIE appear faster with the tropical low and Ukie has it under 1000mb for a little bit. Just to show the post landfall deepening on this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 They dropped a 737 down from MKE that we are boarding now. Had some good downpour action about an hour ago. Was sweet watching the high idle turbines kick up the standing water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 If this growing cluster of storms with torrential rainfall holds together and starts to train over the Detroit metro area in the next hour or two, we may have some serious flash flood problems after yesterday. There already is a flash flood watch in anticipation of 1-3" of rain today with potentially higher amounts in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1259 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259 PM CDT ATMOSPHERE REMAINS REMARKABLY FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH PWATS ALLOWING FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES (TROPICAL-LIKE) TO DOMINATE. THE RESULT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY BEEN THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME RAIN RATES...IN SOME CASES OVER AN INCH IN LESS THAN 20 MINUTES. ATMOSPHERE WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SO CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THE EFFICIENCY OF RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND EXTREME RAINFALL RATES...ANY TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN A SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS WOULD BE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN FLOODING IN RECENT DAYS WHERE THE GROUND CAN TAKE NO MORE WATER AND ALSO IN URBANIZED AREAS THAT CAN NEVER TOLERATE EXTREME RAINFALL RATES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATER THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME POCKETS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MODIFYING ILX'S MORNING SOUDNINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE OBS YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG NOW WITH NO REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES. AREA VWPS SHOW DEEP LAYER OF 30-40KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 850-500MB...WHICH IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30KT. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME TRANSIENT OUTFLOW DOMINANT HP SUPERCELL-ISH CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WITH SLOWLY BUILDING INSTABILITY...THE THREAT DOES EXIST FOR SOME ADDITIONAL WET MICROBURSTS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENT TRACKED ACROSS LEE...SOUTHERN DEKALB/KANE COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING AND HAS LAID OUT AN EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF I-80. SHOULD THIS OUTFLOW OR ANY OTHER BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THE THREAT OF TRAINING AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL GROW. NOTE TO WSR-88D USERS: THE VERY HIGH EFFICIENCY OF RAIN IN THE STORMS AND LACK OF HAIL IS RESULTING IN LEGACY PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE RADAR TO BE RUNNING TOO LOW. USE SUCH PRODUCTS WITH CAUTION...WE ARE UTILIZING THE DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES WHICH HAVE BEEN PERFORMING MUCH BETTER IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Iowa filling in....skies mostly clear here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 nice update, getting some filtered sun downtown now. wonder if we can get the boundary back north a bit or if the main show stays south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Just when it seemed like maybe we were heading toward some general trend in timing the tropical remnants, the 12z ECMWF comes in much slower with it still buried in the southern Plains at 96 hours...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Filtered sun herein DKB. 73/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Pockets of sun here at ORD in the last twenty minutes. Enough to start drying the concrete surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Numerous storms building south of I-80 in Iowa. Looks like another round of heavy rains later this afternoon. Highest threat should be south of route 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Anybody read IND"s afternoon AFD? My favorite quote: ANOTHER REASON NO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IS THE QPF PEOPLE IN WASHINGTON HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE COMPARATIVELY DRY CENTRAL CWA. THIS MAKES SENSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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