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June 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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The HRRR dry slots Southern NJ after 06z tonight and then numerous showers/storms form near the triple point which then delivers showers at least through end of run at 13z.

Gives parts of NNJ 2-3" of rain, though the HRRR is terribly inconsistent with its precip amounts over specific areas, though I like it for giving a basic idea of if a heavier band might form in the general vicinity

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FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NJC025-029-280515-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0023.150628T0118Z-150628T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 115 AM EDT

* AT 915 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
TOMS RIVER...LONG BRANCH...ASBURY PARK...SANDY HOOK...LAKEWOOD...
MIDDLETOWN...JACKSON...HOWELL...MARLBORO...TINTON FALLS...
HOLMDEL...RED BANK...KEANSBURG...MATAWAN...MANASQUAN...POINT
PLEASANT BEACH...LAKEHURST...FARMINGDALE...MANTOLOKING AND PLEASANT
PLAINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 4033 7397 4007 7404 4006 7412 4005 7405
4001 7408 3996 7408 3995 7412 3992 7412
4003 7445 4045 7423 4045 7413 4041 7403
4044 7399 4048 7402 4048 7401 4044 7398
4038 7401 4038 7397

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NAM/GFS certainly had it wrong when they kept insisting that the heaviest rain would be in northwestern areas. It's southeastern sections that are getting pounded. Anyway, we just hit 1 inch of rain here. Nice soaking, but nothing like what they're getting in southeastern Jersey. 

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NAM/GFS certainly had it wrong when they kept insisting that the heaviest rain would be in northwestern areas. It's southeastern sections that are getting pounded. Anyway, we just hit 1 inch of rain here. Nice soaking, but nothing like what they're getting in southeastern Jersey. 

The 18z RGEM has done the best that I have seen today.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_3.png

 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_4.png

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