Hvward Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 Recon reports show FL level winds are 68kt ~78 mph just wish we could get it to mix down to the surface lol pressure relatively unchanged, if this would have been later on in the season with warmer waters this could have been trouble. Just saw a 65 mph 10s sfc wind, but it does appear to be losing some shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Recon reports show FL level winds are 68kt ~78 mph just wish we could get it to mix down to the surface lol pressure relatively unchanged, if this would have been later on in the season with warmer waters this could have been trouble. The Frying Pan buoy tells the tale rather well I think I have seen it gust to 50 knts once but its sustained around 40 so barely maintaining TS force conditions...... it was still seeing pressure falls so its not quite in the center as of 8:50 when it last updated so unless there is a big jump at the next update I wouldn't expect to see that kind of wind at the surface. Seeing lots of gust 40+ right on the Cape but with the wind field like it is maybe Wrightsville up to Topsail might be the spot that sees the worst winds in 3-4 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Just like most message boards this one is dying. It is mainly because the people who are wrong a lot call out people for being wrong who express their opinions (right or wrong) and those people in turn say well there is always twitter. You folks have a good night and remember weather is something ALL people can and will get wrong a lot. Your "forecasts" have been consistently wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 I have been a bad boy haven't I. You seem to post whatever pops into your head without applying any kind of a filter and without considering what you posted just shortly before. It leads to disjointed threads that wander off topic as people react to your statements. FYI You are about to receive notice that I have warned you. In fact I am removing a warning I gave you February that did not remove itself after 90 days. Please don't make me regret it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Just saw a 65 mph 10s sfc wind, but it does appear to be losing some shape. I think the center is trying to close off a little tighter maybe maybe seeing a bit of that interaction with land effect tightening up the COC a bit, if anywhere is going to see winds 60+ its in that band on the east side of the circ there is some nasty stuff in the 70-80 mph range not to high up there on velocity scans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Just like most message boards this one is dying. It is mainly because the people who are wrong a lot call out people for being wrong who express their opinions (right or wrong) and those people in turn say well there is always twitter. You folks have a good night and remember weather is something ALL people can an will get wrong a lot. TaTa now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Not sure how accurate these stations are but its getting rough this one sustained mid 40's gusting to 60, its right on the Cape more or less http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=pws:KNCSOUTH1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 I think the center is trying to close off a little tighter maybe maybe seeing a bit of that interaction with land effect tightening up the COC a bit, if anywhere is going to see winds 60+ its in that band on the east side of the circ there is some nasty stuff in the 70-80 mph range not to high up there on velocity scans Yeah you are right, looks to be tightening up just a bit. I am interested to see what the Hurricane Hunters find as they make a pass into the NE quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 As is often the case at the beginning of winter storm season, there seems to always be a need to remind someone to "read more, post less" to avoid embarrassment. At least Ana has given the opportunity to do so early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Yeah you are right, looks to be tightening up just a bit. I am interested to see what the Hurricane Hunters find as they make a pass into the NE quadrant. So far one thing that has stood out on this leg with recon is the FL and surface winds are almost the same and in a few cases the surface winds where higher than the FL winds Time: 02:00:30Z Coordinates: 32.433N 77.033W Acft. Static Air Press: 843.2 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,597 m Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1017.0 mb (30.04 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 189° at 41 kts (From the S at 47.2 mph) Air Temp: 12.4°C (54.3°F) Dew Pt: -0.5°C (31.1°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 kts (48.3 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 45 kts (51.8 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (0.16 in/hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 That location I linked is the Cape Fear Pilots station right on the point in Southport so the numbers are going to be pretty accurate and its in a prime location to get pummeled.....62 mph peak gust so far....further down Oak Island the winds gusting more like 40-50 but the wind direction isn't that great for big numbers west of Cape Fear....still might see some 60+ stuff up the coast too Jville as the center moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Yeah you are right, looks to be tightening up just a bit. I am interested to see what the Hurricane Hunters find as they make a pass into the NE quadrant. I wonder if the curve of Myrtle Beach's coastline is helping Ana here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Recon on last leg but it should go right through the NE side of the circ where the best storms are rotating towards ATM....to bad there isn't a weather station right on Cape Fear itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015Satellite and radar data indicate that Ana's convective structureincreased in organization during the late afternoon as bandingincreased over the northeastern portion of the circulation.However, during the past few hours, the cloud top temperatures havewarmed and the convection has decreased in intensity. Data from anAir Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the initialintensity remains at 50 kt, which is in best agreement withuncontaminated SFMR winds. Ana is still forecast to weaken slightlywhile it moves over cooler waters near the coast overnight.Additional weakening should occur once the center moves onshoreSunday morning. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical onMonday before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low overeastern North America.Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that Ana is moving north-northwestward, or 320/04. The tropical cyclone should continuemoving slowly north-northwestward tonight as a mid-troposphericridge to the north of Ana shifts eastward. A broad trough movinginto the central and eastern U.S. during the next few days isexpected to cause the cyclone or its remnants to turn northward onSunday and then northeastward at a faster forward speed by Sundaynight. The updated NHC track is similar to the previous advisoryand is close to the multi-model consensus.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 10/0300Z 33.2N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 33.8N 78.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 11/0000Z 34.7N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 35.9N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 37.8N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 damn they don't have it crossing the coast till 11am tomorrow morning If that is the case then Cape Fear is gonna take a beating, 45-60 mph gust for 12 hrs is no fun. They have the center crossing about right over Pitt Co around late afternoon tomorrow or 18 hrs from now...so 18 hrs to go 150 miles I guess the 3-4" of rain most models give us is not out of the question and that's not counting the .75" we got yesterday and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 1.61" yesterday and last night. Light rain falling this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Only .03 last night. So dry here. Ana is onshore now. Looks like it came onshore near Myrtle Beach. Very windy here. Waiting for the rain bands to make their way over to us. They are just to our south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 Ocean Isle, NC is getting hammered right now. Looks like they are in the strongest part of the storm currently. Just found this great webcam. http://thewinds.com/live-beach-webcam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Ocean Isle, NC is getting hammered right now. Looks like they are in the strongest part of the storm currently. Just found this great webcam. http://thewinds.com/live-beach-webcam/ Great beach and great resort! Have stayed at the Winds many times over the past 10 years!Glad it's just a nuisance storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Heavy rain off and on the last few hrs, .50" in the gauge but that has what hit yesterday as well....hard to tell how much more rain we get models say 1-3" maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Heavy rain off and on the last few hrs, .50" in the gauge but that has what hit yesterday as well....hard to tell how much more rain we get models say 1-3" maybe. We finally had our first band come thru. .32 fell from it. Areas just to our south and east got a lot more this morning. Hopefully more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 We finally had our first band come thru. .32 fell from it. Areas just to our south and east got a lot more this morning. Hopefully more to come. Not me I want no more rain but looks like that's not gonna happen lol....had some thunder with that last storm first time I have heard thunder with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 1118 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 101516Z - 102116Z SUMMARY...RAINFALL RATES ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATIONWITH TROPICAL STORM ANA, EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NC COASTALPLAIN. WITH AN EMERGING SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THEMESOSCALE GUIDANCE, FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...ANA REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM LATE THIS MORNING PERTHE 15Z ADVISORY FROM NHC. OVERNIGHT, RAINFALL TOTALS WEREMODEST, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT NOTED IN SOUTHWEST CARTARET COUNTY(ALONG THEIR BARRIER ISLAND) OF 2.53". HOWEVER, RECENT RADARTRENDS INDICATE AN UPTICK TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, WITH 2-3 SPIRALBANDS SHOWING UP EAST OF ITS CENTER IN RECENT SCANS. PRECIPITABLEWATER VALUES ARE 1.75-2", PAR FOR THE COURSE FOR A SYSTEM OFNON-TROPICAL ORIGIN. WINDS AT 850 HPA/NEAR THE CLOUD BASE AREBROADLY 25-40 KTS ALONG THE NC COAST, DOUBLE THE MEAN 850-400 HPAWIND, WHICH SHOULD SET UP PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. MIXED LAYERCAPE VALUES NEAR THE OUTERMOST BAND ARE 1000-2000 J/KG, SUFFICIENTFOR WET MULTI-CELLS. OFFSHORE, CAPE VALUES REMAIN 1000-2000 J/KG, WHICH SHOULD BE ABLETO ADVECT IN AS FAR THE ANA'S EXPECTED TRACK. THE 00Z SPC WRF,00Z WRF4NSSL, AND 06Z NAM CONEST APPEAR TOO HIGH WITH RAINFALLAMOUNTS NEAR THE SYSTEM'S CENTER -- DUE TO THE CAPE/INFLOWORIENTATION, A MORE PROLONGED/MODEST RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED NEARITS CORE MORE TYPICAL OF A FLOOD RATHER THAN A FLASH FLOOD EVENT.HOWEVER, WITHIN THE SPIRAL BANDS, WITH GREATER INFLOW ANDINSTABILITY, THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS UNITED IN SUGGESTING 2-4"OF RAIN POSSIBLE LOCALLY, NEAR THE REGION'S THREE HOURLY FLASHFLOOD GUIDANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5"AN HOUR. FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 They have Ana still over NE NC at 8 am tomorrow morning so she is in no hurry and some places are going to get 3-5" of rain before its all said and done....will be interesting to see if storms/showers break out in western NC as her rotation and tropical moisture spread inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 They have Ana still over NE NC at 8 am tomorrow morning so she is in no hurry and some places are going to get 3-5" of rain before its all said and done....will be interesting to see if storms/showers break out in western NC as her rotation and tropical moisture spread inland Off and on drizzle is about all we ever get here in the western triad with these small tropical systems. I swear the banding stops at PTI in Greensboro. Today we do seem to be getting the low level clouds pushing inland further than I expected. Usually we get 50% sun out of these things. Love the breeze but it is so humid its like standing in front of a water fan at Disney World. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 I haven't seen any particularly impressive ground obs as of late, but the storm looks as good as it ever has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 The best I saw was last night when the center was 20-30 miles offshore there were several 55-65 mph gust right along the beaches around Cape Fear.....away from that 45-50 seems the be the best they got inland off the beach but it was still limited to the immediate coastal areas... They always do look better when the weaker ones come in the land interaction tightens them up in some cases it does actually help them continue to strengthen ( Bertha, Irene etc) but if they are already well organized then coming in rips them up. Eastern NC is flat most of it east of I 95 is under 100 ft in elevation heck most of it is under 50 ft.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Looks like Ana has made its turn and seems to be heading in a NNE direction. At least by looking at the radar it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 It's headed to ME!!! ANA...LOCATED NEAR NC/SC BORDER...WILL CONTINUE LIFTING TO THE NORTHTHE REST OF TODAY. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE INVOF KJNXAROUND MIDNIGHT THEN APPROACHING THE VA BORDER BY SUNRISE MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 decent band over me now putting down some big ole raindrops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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