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Good Thursday morning, Decided to start a combined topic covering Saturday night, Sunday afternoon and the uncertain impact of ISAIAS this coming Monday-Tuesday. ISAIAS has track uncertainties until everything gets re-organized Friday. Thereafter, I think the EPS/GEFS should nail whether or not tropical storm conditions can impact the coasts. Follow NHC guidance and the contributions from American Weather tropical experts. One reason for uncertainty; I see multiple 00z/30 ensembles showing the northern bounds of heavy rainfall not too far north of our NYC forum which suggests, at this distant date, that a hard right turn of ISAIAS could yet occur that would spare us more than a dangerous rip current situation. In other words, we're on the gradient of substantial rainfall impact. Big forecast busts tend to occur in the ensemble gradients, buying in too early to one set of solutions or another. So dangerous rip currents are my first primary concern for Monday-Wednesday, especially Long Island. Southerly swells should gradually build over the western Atlantic into early next week. Presuming the NHC 5AM Thursday track is reasonable, surge and wind field risks on the western side of ISAIAS are minimal but if the track shifts to where a portion of our area is on the eastern side of the TC, then those risks would significantly increase. My secondary primary concern is isolated 7" rainfall from the necessary combined events of Saturday nights WAA (warm frontal) event, Sunday afternoons possible isolated severe nw NJ/se NYS westward into ne PA, and then finally either a PRE, or a direct impact of ISAIAS Monday-Tuesday. I'm more concerned about Predecessor Rainfall event rather than direct ISAIAS impact. The 7" rainfall in my estimation would probably have to occur west of the I95 corridor due to the ensembles probable combined Sat night-Sunday afternoon events depositing biggest amounts somewhere near the western edge of our forum coverage (~Sussex-Orange Counties?). If Sat night-Sunday does not occur (1-3" combined event band somewhere in that area), then a PRE or ISAIAS hit would have to do all the work by itself and at this time, this is far too uncertain. So to get to 7", it's a lot easier if we see sizable rainfall Sat night-Sunday. There is still a chance not much happens here next Monday-Tuesday-it's in the envelope of possibilities. (See the 06z/30 GFS run). Let's see what happens. I'll be particularly interested in PRE comments. 733A/30
Ok guys, this one is going to linger for a bit on the NC/SC coast so I think we need a separate thread to document/discuss observations. 4km NAM really gets this thing going later this afternoon with gust of 65+mph. It wouldn't take much for this to reach hurricane threshold, but I still have my doubts. One thing is for sure though, it is in a good spot to strengthen over the next day or so. Most models bring good rain to the Triangle and the whole Eastern part of NC so I think we could see a bit of flash flooding inland by the end of the weekend. Murrells Inlet, SC through Southport, NC looks to be ground zero for landfall but places like Wilmington and Jacksonville will take the brunt of the rain. It will be interesting to see how the Cape Fear River reacts with the storm moving more perpendicular to the coast compared to a parallel approach. Below are some great webcams to watch the storm come ashore. Not as many chasers are going to chase imo because of the threat out in the plains, so these webcams will most likely be the best source for video. If this weekend wasn't Mothers Day, I would have probably made the trip to ILM but I think I will save my hurricane chase for something later in the year. All and all this storm will be a prolonged event with strong rip currents, storm surge, and torrential rain that could pack a somewhat unexpected punch to those along the SC/NC coast today into tomorrow! Myrtle Beach, SC: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd http://www.crownreef.com/webcam/ http://www.tripsmarter.com/myrtle-beach/video/live-cams/compass-cove-schooner-live-cam http://www.beachcove.com/webcam/ http://www.breakers.com/myrtle-beach-web-cam/ http://www.oceancreek.com/webcam/ http://www.northmyrtlebeachchamber.com/index.php?src=gendocs&ref=Webcam&category=Main Folly Beach, SC: http://surfchex.com/follybeach-web-cam.php Murrells Inlet, SC: http://www.tripsmarter.com/myrtle-beach/video/live-cams/dead-dog-saloon-live-cam-marshwalk Isle of Palms, SC: http://www.carolinacoastsurfclub.org/surfcamnew.shtml Holden Beach, NC: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/supply/holden/?cam=holdennc http://www.brunswicklandrealty.com/beachcam Southport, NC: http://www.fishyfishycafe.com http://www.beachcamsusa.com/me/southport/southport-maine-webcam Bald Head Island, NC: http://rentals.coastalurge.com/bhi-marina-cam/ Wrightsville Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/index.php http://www.surfchex.com/wrightsville-beach-waterway-live-sup-cam.php Kure Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/kure-beach-web-cam.php Carolina Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/carolina-beach-web-cam.php