2015 Short Term Severe Weather Discussion

[Indystorm]

.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR  

SCOTT COUNTY...  

 

AT 735 PM CDT...A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF  

DAVENPORT MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF  

PRODUCING TORNADOES.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  

TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  

LIKELY.  

 

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  

BETTENDORF...ELDRIDGE AND LONG GROVE AROUND 745 PM CDT.  

 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  

DAVENPORT MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.  

 

PEOPLE ATTENDING RIVER BANDITS BASEBALL SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER  

IMMEDIATELY!  

 

[Indystorm]

Two tor warned cells south of St, Louis look concerning and it seems like cells are becoming more organized from earlier in the day.

[cyclone77]

Ended up chasing a weak sup northwest of Clinton Iowa earlier this afternoon.  Shot time lapse of it's approach, and then followed it north towards Thomson IL until it went into the colder air and became elevated.  Went after a weaker cell east of the QC after that, but it didn't do very well.  The stuff coming in from the west looked messy, and even when it went tor warned I didn't go after it.  Looks like there may have been a rain-wrapped tor south of the Illinois City area.  Showed up nicely on CC as well.  

 

Here's a shot from the Clinton sup approaching.

 

Time lapse.

[Hoosier]

Today could be a little sleeper setup over eastern/southeastern Iowa, western IL, and northeast MO. Mid-level lapse rates are terrible, since the corridor of heavy rains over the Plains last night pretty much took care of those. However, ground scraping LCLs, decent wind profiles, and modest cape forming in some clear spots could be enough to make for some interesting storms. Vis sat shows the eastern half of MO up into southeast IA with some clearing. On a day like this we probably won't need too much cape. SPC doesn't have much of this area in any tor risk atm, but I'm thinking there's some potential later this afternoon.

Good call.

[kevlon62]

Ran with with our little elevated cell from roughly Belvidere to Capron. Just a fun ride on a few open country roads.

Came across two seperate bridges that were closed and being rebuilt. If things were legit it would have been a pain but we stayed even, and got ahead of southern end just the same.

Almost reminded me of a November 2009 track where we witnessed a touchdown from west of Harvard. Next.

[snowlover2]

New day 1 has slight risk for southwest quarter of IA and new day 2 has a slight risk for southern two-thirds of IN, southwest quarter of OH and most of KY.

[Hoosier]

EF2 in IL yesterday.

[cyclone77]

EF2 in IL yesterday.

 

Wow, a strong tornado.  

 

Paul Brooks did a hell of a job and captured it on video.  No small feat considering the tornado was completely rain-wrapped.  You'd have had to have been inside the bears cage to have seen it like he did.  

 

[snowlover2]

Pretty big changes on the new day 1 from the previous day 2. Previous day 2 had a slight risk for sw OH and most of KY southward. New day 1 has a slight risk for all of IN/OH,most of MI except the UP,se WI and ne IL.

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS....

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND PLAINS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER FLOW MAY TREND A BIT MORE ZONAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST MAY WEAKEN SOME...BUT A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO AREAS JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM. AT THE SAME TIME RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LATTER FEATURE APPROACHES BAJA...SHORT
WAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
NOW PIVOTING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THIS LEAD IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A MID-LEVEL LOW...WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH...NOW SHIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...AHEAD OF ANOTHER BROAD LOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AS THIS CONTINUES...THE CONSOLIDATING IMPULSE
IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHERE AT LEAST MODEST DEEPENING OF A SURFACE CYCLONE
APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A TRAILING SURFACE FRONT MAY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY
WELL-DEFINED...DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED AIR TO ITS
SOUTHEAST. PERHAPS MOST PROMINENT IS THE CONGLOMERATE SURFACE COLD
POOL ACCOMPANYING THE EXTENSIVE WEAKENING SQUALL LINE NOW ADVANCING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
ALTHOUGH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SURFACE
RIDGING...MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE
DISRUPTED...AND THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THIS AIR MASS ON MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...
ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIVE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEARS
UNLIKELY...DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER /AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE/ PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT WEAK TO MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
INSTABILITY...COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS TO 30-50 KT...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS IT
SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

 

 

[nwohweather]

Gravity waves over southern Michigan right now. Atmosphere is pretty ripe around Gaylord as well and it looks like a Tornado Watch may go up for the region

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[snowlover2]

Looks like a watch coming soon for E IN/W OH.

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES/MID OH VALLEY VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261724Z - 261930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE
MIDWEST. WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER FROM
SRN LOWER MI SWD ACROSS OH AND PORTIONS OF INDIANA INTO KY. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY MOIST /MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER IN
PLACE...HEATING THROUGH THE CLOUD BREAKS IS ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE...WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW
INDICATED DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...A BROAD BELT OF ENHANCED /AROUND 50 KT/ MID LEVEL SSWLYS
ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION. WHILE FLOW IS RELATIVELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. THUS -- EXPECT SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL TO EVOLVE AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. RISK MAY
WARRANT WW ISSUANCE WITH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/26/2015

 

[Powerball]

Gravity waves over southern Michigan right now. Atmosphere is pretty ripe around Gaylord as well and it looks like a Tornado Watch may go up for the region

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Blue or orange outlines from the SPC typically (though there are exceptions) implies that a severe thunderstorm watch may be issued, while a red outline implies a tornado watch will be issued.

[Powerball]

Gravity waves over southern Michigan right now. Atmosphere is pretty ripe around Gaylord as well and it looks like a Tornado Watch may go up for the region

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Blue or orange outlines from the SPC typically (though there are exceptions) imply that a severe thunderstorm watch may be issued, while a red outline implies a tornado watch will be issued.

[snowlover2]

New t-storm watch for E IN/W OH until 10pm.

[nwohweather]

Blue or orange outlines from the SPC typically (though there are exceptions) imply that a severe thunderstorm watch may be issued, while a red outline implies a tornado watch will be issued.

I know but they talked about a tornado threat so it may just go to that

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[snowlover2]

New t-storm watch for E IN/W OH until 10pm.

Here it is.

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 220

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

225 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA

EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY

SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

WESTERN OHIO

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL

1000 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW

WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST

SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI OHIO TO 70 MILES NORTH OF FORT WAYNE

INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.

A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION

VECTOR 22030.

...MEAD

 

[The G Man]

My weather radio just gave me an alert a few moments ago:

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MIC001-005-007-009-011-015-017-019-025-035-037-039-045-049-051-
055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-093-
099-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-
137-139-143-145-147-151-155-157-159-161-163-165-270200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0221.150526T1900Z-150527T0200Z/

MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALCONA ALLEGAN ALPENA
ANTRIM ARENAC BARRY
BAY BENZIE CALHOUN
CLARE CLINTON CRAWFORD
EATON GENESEE GLADWIN
GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT HURON
INGHAM IONIA IOSCO
ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO
KALKASKA KENT LAKE
LAPEER LEELANAU LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MANISTEE
MASON MECOSTA MIDLAND
MISSAUKEE MONROE MONTCALM
MONTMORENCY MUSKEGON NEWAYGO
OAKLAND OCEANA OGEMAW
OSCEOLA OSCODA OTSEGO
OTTAWA ROSCOMMON SAGINAW
SANILAC SHIAWASSEE ST. CLAIR
TUSCOLA VAN BUREN WASHTENAW
WAYNE WEXFORD

 

[smoof]

I see the SPC just popped a tstorm watch for most of MI. Nice to actually have some partial sunshine today and some CAPE. Potential gusts to 70mph sounds fun anyways

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 221   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   300 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF      LOWER MICHIGAN     LAKE ERIE     LAKE HURON   * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL     1000 PM EDT.   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

[smoof]

The line of tstorms just SW of grand rapids seems to be intensifying faster than most models have said they would all day, already some 40kft + echotops going on, might get interesting here in a couple hours

[stormtrackertf]

Starting to look very interesting for all of Lower Michigan as storms line up from the western part of the state all the way down to KY, moving northeast.

I'm feeling optimistic we'll at least get some heavy downpours, which I welcome.

[snowlover2]

Just had a storm with no thunder and lightning but had torrential rain and 50mph winds. 

[JasonOH]

Decent winds on the line thats coming through. I estimate 40-45 mph.

[Chinook]

possible damaging winds in NW Ohio,  Van Wert, Lima, Sidney, area may have 40-60mph wind gusts with this line of storms.

[smoof]

Looks like the 12z 4km NAM did an ok job for my area today, was predicting the few small cells in front of the main line, one of which it says was headed to MBY and it will be close, looks like it underdid the main line though, fun times

[nwohweather]

Going to head out in a bit. Storms are racing across NW Ohio right now and winds have really picked up as well. Might get a little dicey across the area here

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[smoof]

haha 12z 4km NAM totally nailed it for my area, the cell in front of the main line it said was coming is right over me right now with torrential rain and a few thunders, hope the main line is more exciting in 30mins

[geddyweather]

possible damaging winds in NW Ohio,  Van Wert, Lima, Sidney, area may have 40-60mph wind gusts with this line of storms.

 

Took a direct hit from this line in Columbus Grove. Thin but photogenic shelf cloud followed by 50-55mph wind gusts and heavy rains. Leading edge winds kicked up some heavy dust due to lack of rain, and there are small branches down all over town. Pretty intense lightning on the rear end as well. Further to my SW, Delphos saw 60+mph gusts and some heavy tree damage.

 

Photos later...

[nwohweather]

Shelf as it moved across the field

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[snowlover2]

Sounds like a brief tornado touched down a couple of miles south of me. Quite a bit of damage done. At least a dozen cars damaged as well as several buildings.

[nwohweather]

Getting reports of 1.5" hail here in Ottawa County

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