NRVwxfan. Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 100% if you live in Mauldin and Five Forks area! Was the only storms within a 500 mile radius, but it was severe! There is a storm in Columbia, but its a bit less than 500 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 There is a storm in Columbia, but its a bit less than 500 miles. I got a pretty cloud picture but no rain from the warned cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 I got a pretty cloud picture but no rain from the warned cell We actually got our first measurable rain in weeks here, during a week that was supposed to be the hottest in several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 We actually got our first measurable rain in weeks here, during a week that was supposed to be the hottest in several years. My grass is brown and crunchy, the hostas are shriveling and the flowers are coughing because it's soo dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Saw someone posted in the banter thread that WxSouth said Thursday could be "dangerous." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Saw someone posted in the banter thread that WxSouth said Thursday could be "dangerous." He was spot on for our area today! "WxSouth 17 hrs · A broken line of thunderstorms will continue pushing south through southern, middle Virginia and probably break up once entering central NC. The other , more developing line is in Tennessee, east to west and into southeast Kentucky---that line may hold together a few more hours and approach northern GA, AL and MS. By tomorrow, leftover boundaries and other features will enhance thunderstorm chances in Miss, Alabama and Georgia to Florida Panhandle. Then by Thursday, a strong MCC line will form in the Ohio Valley and that one has the potential to be very organized and downright dangerous. More on that as it becomes clearer." http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ffc&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 For Thursday, RAH says: EXPECT MORE COVERAGE THAN THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 KTS WITH WEAK HELICITY AT LOW LEVELS AND FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS UP TO 6 KM DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH PW APPROACHING 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING THERE SHOULD BE A WINDOW THAT COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS A RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG LAPSE RATES IN BOTH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND FAT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...INDICATING THAT HAIL COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. INVERTED V SIGNATURES AND A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH. IN ADDITION...WHILE MOST OF THE JET SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...A STRONG VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE VA BORDER AFTER 00Z WHICH MAY LEND SUPPORT TO ANY PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION AND INCREASE HELICITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR POSSIBLY A TORNADO BUT MITIGATING THIS THREAT IS THE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS STILL AVAILABLE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Definitely sounds like a chance for some severe weather tomorrow. They sound pretty confident. Guess we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Severe Tstorm Warning! Greenville county! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The setup for tomorrow is pretty damn good, dry cool air in the mid levels and hot wet air at the surface during what is basically the strongest heating days of the year usually equals pretty nasty storms.....especially if the timing is right and this can fire off between 12-6pm.....I suspect dcape and microburst potential tomorrow could be maxed for most of us and add the chance at some prolific hailers to the mix, should be a interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 RAH HWO: .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 At least it hasn't changed. Maybe we will actually have some excitement the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 The mid level cap broke violently after sundown and clusters of strong thunderstorms turned very severe, particularly in Goose Creek around 1230 am. I took some video (sorry about the language in the video, was a little fired up). At least 60 mph winds. These winds blew down a tree onto US HWY 176 at the Brandywine Apartment complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 The mid level cap broke violently after sundown and clusters of strong thunderstorms turned very severe, particularly in Goose Creek around 1230 am. I took some video (sorry about the language in the video, was a little fired up). At least 60 mph winds. These winds blew down a tree onto US HWY 176 at the Brandywine Apartment complex. Good stuff, nice duration too, I am jealous ...... I agree that was easily 60+ peak wind gust mixed in there......this is what almost all of NC can expect to see tomorrow, dcape will be silly and when the warm high PWAT and DP air at the surface gets up to the dry cool mid levels its gonna produce some impressive winds like you got in that video tonight....just to give you a idea at how extreme the dcape is right now in this setup here is the CURRENT dcape map at 3:30 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Good stuff, nice duration too, I am jealous ...... I agree that was easily 60+ peak wind gust mixed in there......this is what almost all of NC can expect to see tomorrow, dcape will be silly and when the warm high PWAT and DP air at the surface gets up to the dry cool mid levels its gonna produce some impressive winds like you got in that video tonight....just to give you a idea at how extreme the dcape is right now in this setup here is the CURRENT dcape map at 3:30 AM dcape.gif The DCAPE lived up to potential. earlier soundings indicated WINDEX values of 78 kts! Someone in the Goose Creek area reported to the NWS CHS a 44mph sustained gusts to 66 mph on a Davis Weather Station. kCHS got in on it too with a sustained 21 gusts to 46 mph from the north. Incredible mid level cap erosion after daytime proved what little storms developed collapsed immediately. When all the storms fired tonight around 930-1000 pm, CAPE was still around 3500 J/kg!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 The DCAPE lived up to potential. earlier soundings indicated WINDEX values of 78 kts! Someone in the Goose Creek area reported to the NWS CHS a 44mph sustained gusts to 66 mph on a Davis Weather Station. kCHS got in on it too with a sustained 21 gusts to 46 mph from the north. Incredible mid level cap erosion after daytime proved what little storms developed collapsed immediately. When all the storms fired tonight around 930-1000 pm, CAPE was still around 3500 J/kg!!! That's what is the coolest part to me....sustainability, like in your video you were solid 40+ for the entire thing with plenty of peak gust to 60+ mixed in.... On a different note severe thunderstorms currently west of the Triangle at dawn......heck of a thing to wake up too. They are training as well some 4-5" rainfall totals Also sometimes the MHX office disappoints with their write-ups here is their AFD they just put out for today..I mean come on really? Hopefully the 9-10ish in the morning update will be a bit more wordy IRT our storm threat today..... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 330 AM THU...STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WEST-EAST WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. WARM HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. INITIATION WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON THE SEABREEZE AND ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS AT AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THE AREA. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 330 AM THU...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK VORT ENERGY SEEN PASSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING. OVERNIGHT LOWS 75-80. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 This cluster was severe warned until 5:30... ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN WAKE... SOUTHEASTERN CHATHAM...NORTHEASTERN LEE AND NORTHEASTERN HARNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM EDT...AT 517 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH... HEAVY RAIN... AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...RALEIGH...CARY...PITTSBORO...GARNER...FUQUAY-VARINA...ANGIER...APEX...HOLLY SPRINGS...JORDAN LAKE STATE REC AREA AND CROSSWINDSBOATING CENTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Looks like the storms are coming this way already. I wonder if getting them this early will lower the chances of getting more later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Looks like the storms are coming this way already. I wonder if getting them this early will lower the chances of getting more later today. No....they will shut off soon, and if anything they will make severe weather more likely later today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 SPC has added parts of central and eastern NC to the slight risk area for Sat now as well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 No....they will shut off soon, and if anything they will make severe weather more likely later today.... I was wondering if it would do that, too. I know it can go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Very dark skies headed towards downtown Raleigh. Saw some impressive lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Had a nice storm in Moncure. Plenty of rain and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Very dark skies headed towards downtown Raleigh. Saw some impressive lightning. That's an observation --- not really severe weather related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Very dark skies headed towards downtown Raleigh. Saw some impressive lightning.Had to be heat lightning! Gonna be 99 today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Downeast before I even came on here and read your post I read Raleigh, Wilmington and moreheads discussions and when I got to Morehead I was thinking wow that was dissapointing haha I was expecting this big write up since we were put in a slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Downeast before I even came on here and read your post I read Raleigh, Wilmington and moreheads discussions and when I got to Morehead I was thinking wow that was dissapointing haha I was expecting this big write up since we were put in a slight risk. Yeah they didn't try very hard huh......maybe they will do more with the mid morning update.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Calling for 99 today, if storms can fire, should be severe , like the past few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Calling for 99 today, if storms can fire, should be severe , like the past few days! I can only hope for that. Missed the storms yesterday. CAPE will be there, just have to wonder if they can fire up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 Saturday almost looks chasable look at the wind profiles of the 6z nam. A few VBV issues near Lumberton but if you move farther N towards Greenville and Goldsboro I see just a small bit of veer-back-veer. Cape looks to be solid and speed shear also looks pretty good. If surface winds were a tad higher it would be a certain go. Will be monitering for sure like the rest of you guys and may have to make a trip down east for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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