Deck Pic Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The "just one big one" is a rarity here though. I wouldn't bank on that as your salvation. It could happen but big storms tend to come in good winters. yeah..in 1983 we managed 11" outside the HECS but it all fell in 2 events.. 6-10" storm in Mid Dec and a 4-5" storm a few days before the HECS...3 events all winter...IAD may have had a T-1" event or 2 but basically those 3 storms were it...Not sure if I'd classify that as a good winter...maybe? The other HECS fell in good winters.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 2015-16 IMBY - 32" 11/29-30: 4.5" 1/21: 1.25" 2/17: 7.5" 2/20-22: 18" 2/24: 0.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Damn Matt. Goin all in? Haha I'm totally fine with a low # of events if it goes down like that. A few good chances and at least 1 decent storm will be entertaining enough if we can score that. Like you, I don't mind messy mixey changeover storms either. The only thing that would get me down would be getting teased and punished with "close but no cigar" stuff. If it's going to suck, let's suck without any hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Damn Matt. Goin all in? Haha I'm totally fine with a low # of events if it goes down like that. A few good chances and at least 1 decent storm will be entertaining enough if we can score that. Like you, I don't mind messy mixey changeover storms either. The only thing that would get me down would be getting teased and punished with "close but no cigar" stuff. If it's going to suck, let's suck without any hope. He's got a very '82-'83 flavor with that sequence of snow events. First one earlier that that year and the second two later but same idea. It is not a bad forecast if you think that we will get February to cooperate in the Arctic. There is likely to be a ton of precip chances so get a couple decent airmasses in place when the AO is negative and take your hacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Bad news for those wishing for a supervolcano. The hot spot under Yellowstone National Park has produced several super-eruptions in the past,” he explained. “The measurements that have been made indicate that this magma body doesn’t currently have a high-enough percentage of melt to produce a super-eruption. But now we know that, when or if it does reach such a state, we will only have a few hundred years to prepare ourselves for the consequences. http://www.inquisitr.com/2514471/yellowstone-volcano-scientists-supervolcano-eruption-prediction-boiling-geysers-kill-dogs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I never liked December anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 yeah..in 1983 we managed 11" outside the HECS but it all fell in 2 events.. 6-10" storm in Mid Dec and a 4-5" storm a few days before the HECS...3 events all winter...IAD may have had a T-1" event or 2 but basically those 3 storms were it...Not sure if I'd classify that as a good winter...maybe? The other HECS fell in good winters.. Well one winter isn't the best odds either way. I think most of us would take an 82-83! I'm not that sold this year looks way different than 97-98 though. I think people might be putting too much stock in the warm ocean elsewhere. HM posted this on Twitter: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/658795185598402560 Still warming, looks to continue a while. One thing for sure people should stop talking about 09-10 and this winter in the same sentence lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Damn Matt. Goin all in? Haha I'm totally fine with a low # of events if it goes down like that. A few good chances and at least 1 decent storm will be entertaining enough if we can score that. Like you, I don't mind messy mixey changeover storms either. The only thing that would get me down would be getting teased and punished with "close but no cigar" stuff. If it's going to suck, let's suck without any hope. Unfortunately my outlook comes out in 2 weeks and can't have fun with it like I can on this board... .....As of right now, I'm certainly not as optimistic as the 40N conclusion first crowd....I presented today to DC council and I don't think anyone would describe my testimony as bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Well one winter isn't the best odds either way. I think most of us would take an 82-83! I'm not that sold this year looks way different than 97-98 though. I think people might be putting too much stock in the warm ocean elsewhere. HM posted this on Twitter: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/658795185598402560 Still warming, looks to continue a while. One thing for sure people should stop talking about 09-10 and this winter in the same sentence lol. might as well include 40n's fave analog run against the same norms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 might as well include 40n's fave analog run against the same norms 5758.gif hah -- almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I don't think I had a T last December, so can't do worse than that. .25" here. It was rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 hah -- almost identical. even using climate adjusted norms, it's still not as robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Where's that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Where's that from? http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I still think the +QBO will actually benefit us this winter in terms of a decent backend. With the still slightly active sun and the El Niño, we should have a decent shot at some good events and hopefully a biggie in February/March. A few years from now, let's hope for a -QBO El Niño as the sun winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/Sweet haven't seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I don't think I had a T last December, so can't do worse than that. Just looked at my totals from last year...no events in Dec. I never record a trace, but I don't even remember having flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Where's that from?Looks like the GISS site.Edit: Nevermind. Lol. That is what I get for being on my phone and not realizing there was another page of responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Just looked at my totals from last year...no events in Dec. I never record a trace, but I don't even remember having flurries. I had a 0.3" on 11/26...then nothing until the clipper in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I had a 0.3" on 11/26...then nothing until the clipper in January I think I remember that....seems like that was all east of here. I really hope the Dec predictions are a bust. I really like a Dec/Jan winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The biggest issue with a '57-'58 analog (that Zwyts keeps poking fun at) is that it would support a pretty bad vortex position in the N PAC. That season had some exceptionally good blocking on the Atlantic side. Esp in the second half of winter. I don't think I'd be going for a big -NAO this year given the stubborn situation in the North Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I think I remember that....seems like that was all east of here. I really hope the Dec predictions are a bust. I really like a Dec/Jan winter. I've come to take any kind of winter and like it! Just gimme' some sloppy, blue hued snow, preferably 6"+, and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The biggest issue with a '57-'58 analog (that Zwyts keeps poking fun at) is that it would support a pretty bad vortex position in the N PAC. That season had some exceptionally good blocking on the Atlantic side. Esp in the second half of winter. I don't think I'd be going for a big -NAO this year given the stubborn situation in the North Atlantic. Well, if the Atlantic insists on repeating the last 2 years, hopefully the PAC does likewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Well, if the Atlantic insists on repeating the last 2 years, hopefully the PAC does likewise. The strength of this Nino may make that difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The biggest issue with a '57-'58 analog (that Zwyts keeps poking fun at) is that it would support a pretty bad vortex position in the N PAC. That season had some exceptionally good blocking on the Atlantic side. Esp in the second half of winter. I don't think I'd be going for a big -NAO this year given the stubborn situation in the North Atlantic. Is it the cold SSTs near Greenland, or some other factor, or just persistence from the last two winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Last season I recorded when I saw flakes. Nada in December. Hard for me to get real worried until February. Unlike last year WestminsterDeathband, did you present to a closed meeting of the council? No...It was open to the public....Skip to 21:30 for my testimony...Chris Strong goes after me, and then we have a brief Q&A.... http://dc.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?view_id=&clip_id=2907 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The strength of this Nino may make that difficult. I like that we have a PDO on steroids which should help the PNA and could help neutralize a +EPO if we tend that way....But I worry that it is a faux PDO as the PDO region is pretty warm and I think it is really based on the water off the coast being even warmer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Did a presentation with Chris Strong today...We talked about you all good things ruh roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I like that we have a PDO on steroids which should help the PNA and could help neutralize a +EPO if we tend that way....But I worry that it is a faux PDO as the PDO region is pretty warm and I think it is really based on the water off the coast being even warmer.... I think it certainly can't hurt....but yeah, I'm definitely a bit cautious regarding the big N PAC SST/EPO connection this winter. The good news for the Mid-Atlantic is that I do not think it will require last year's PAC pattern to get a decent winter. A couple to three weeks of a solid +PNA with enough cross polar flow to make the airmasses real (i.e. basically a neutral EPO or better) and that is a pattern you can feast off of in short time with the type of STJ we are likely to see this winter. That's such a huge factor for DCA snow...the big STJ. It would be nice if we can get some real blocking on the Atlantic side, but even something like an Iceland/UK block would be adequate...ala Feb 2003. Classic month with a couple weeks of real good PAC and a raging STJ. But yeah, I don't think we're going to be seeing a bunch of -6 months this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Is it the cold SSTs near Greenland, or some other factor, or just persistence from the last two winters? Really a combination of factors...admittedly that isn't overly empirical, 'nor is it supposed to be. The NAO is hard to forecast on a seasonal level. The solidly +QBO El Ninos haven't delivered much Atlantic blocking either to have a bit more statistical support. '57-'58 was a big exception though. But if we do get blocking...esp in February, then look out. That's what helped make Feb '83...and before that Feb/Mar '58 with mediocre PAC patterns. edit: and I would probably be doing a disservice to Jan 1966 if I didn't mention blocking in the Atlantic helping a mediocre PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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