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Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion


AlaskaETC

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I think 2 things we want to see in November to possibly aid the Pacific - see Red boxes

 

 1) See the western region of 3.4/eastern region of 4 warm more...right now the core warmth is in the eastern half of 3.4 and all of Region 3....

 

2) See the area south of the Aleutians cooler...Right now we have a bootleg PDO of sorts due to the warm pool off Baja 

 

I think these things will help mitigate what could potentially be a gross North PAC...even as is, the NPAC might not be totally hideous, and at least we should get plenty of PNA spikes to work with...

 

Still I think the best we can hope for is to try and approach 2009-10 in the NPAC...which was good not great...2002-03 is probably out of the question..the NPAC was sick..

 

If we can somehow get the low displaced south of the Aleutians we might be able to have a decent winter even with a neutral or weakly positive AO/NAO in the means...Otherwise it probably devours the EPO region or at least the southern half and we have to time stuff more and hope for periodic Atlantic side blocking..

 

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This would be kind of nice ;) - no chance...sorry

 

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FWIW, it is possible we have an Aleutian high...72-73 had no negative height anomaly anywhere in the NPAC...I don't think it is likely, but its's possible..

I wonder, and think it very possible, if you could have identical conditions to a winter like 72-73 or 97-98 and get the exact opposite in terms of snowfall.  Snowfall seems so dependent upon getting lucky with timing.

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FWIW, it is possible we have an Aleutian high...72-73 had no negative height anomaly anywhere in the NPAC...I don't think it is likely, but its's possible..

PDO was pretty low if memory serves that year. One would think with a record high PDO this year we should have some insurance against that happening like 72/73.
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PDO was pretty low if memory serves that year. One would think with a record high PDO this year we should have some insurance against that happening like 72/73.

 

73 was negative PDO, -AMO, ++AO, +NAO, we (SE) got very lucky to get a couple of good snows that winter, of course we need a lot of luck anyways.

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HM's had an interesting demonstration on Twitter the last few days showing that height anomalies in eastern Europe during November can help or hinder the formation of the winter polar vortex. Thus, it correlates some to winter NAO state. 

 

The tl;dr version is that progs for the 1st half of November at least are favorable for a winter -NAO state if you buy that link. 

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HM's had an interesting demonstration on Twitter the last few days showing that height anomalies in eastern Europe during November can help or hinder the formation of the winter polar vortex. Thus, it correlates some to winter NAO state.

The tl;dr version is that progs for the 1st half of November at least are favorable for a winter -NAO state if you buy that link.

Meh, just when us weenies think that waiting on October to end will give us a clue on winter blocking, now we have to wait another month! :(
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HM's had an interesting demonstration on Twitter the last few days showing that height anomalies in eastern Europe during November can help or hinder the formation of the winter polar vortex. Thus, it correlates some to winter NAO state.

The tl;dr version is that progs for the 1st half of November at least are favorable for a winter -NAO state if you buy that link.

Not the first person to intimate that info hints at a -NAO.

Who knows? This year is really up in the air. There's an equal chance that we could go really big or s**t the bed.

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Not a bad top analog...that shows up a couple extra times...

 

post-2035-0-46127000-1446569050_thumb.jp

 

 

Obviously a tongue in cheek post. Stark differences with this +enso vs 09. 

 

If it was late Nov, I would find the current AO behavior and forecast to exceed +4sd over the next week pretty troubling. It already topped +3sd on the 1st. +4 isn't very common in Nov. CPC dataset only has 3 years with a Nov reading that exceeds +4. 

 

11/02/78: 4.544

11/15/13: 4.469

11/21/94: 4.444

 

78 & 94 had multiple days over +4 but down the line for those winters were pretty much opposites. 78 was a straight tank into blocking heaven and 94-95 pretty much sucked in the blocking department. 

 

Hopefully we start to see at least some signs of the strong +AO breaking down late this month. If not then Dec could be an unfriendly month for us. Which is what most are expecting anyways. I suppose it's worth pointing out that 78 had a decent measurable snow (3-5" around the region) in late Nov. I'll hug that analog for now along with a side order of 09-10. 

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Not a bad top analog...that shows up a couple extra times...

 

attachicon.gifcpcd11+.JPG

 

 

Obviously a tongue in cheek post. Stark differences with this +enso vs 09. 

 

If it was late Nov, I would find the current AO behavior and forecast to exceed +4sd over the next week pretty troubling. It already topped +3sd on the 1st. +4 isn't very common in Nov. CPC dataset only has 3 years with a Nov reading that exceeds +4. 

 

11/02/78: 4.544

11/15/13: 4.469

11/21/94: 4.444

 

78 & 94 had multiple days over +4 but down the line for those winters were pretty much opposites. 78 was a straight tank into blocking heaven and 94-95 pretty much sucked in the blocking department. 

 

Hopefully we start to see at least some signs of the strong +AO breaking down late this month. If not then Dec could be an unfriendly month for us. Which is what most are expecting anyways. I suppose it's worth pointing out that 78 had a decent measurable snow (3-5" around the region) in late Nov. I'll hug that analog for now along with a side order of 09-10. 

take out everything but NINOs on the CPC Analog list and I'll take those odds

same goes for your list....2 outta 3 were great winters here

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Not a bad top analog...that shows up a couple extra times...

 

 

 

 

Obviously a tongue in cheek post. Stark differences with this +enso vs 09. 

 

If it was late Nov, I would find the current AO behavior and forecast to exceed +4sd over the next week pretty troubling. It already topped +3sd on the 1st. +4 isn't very common in Nov. CPC dataset only has 3 years with a Nov reading that exceeds +4. 

 

11/02/78: 4.544

11/15/13: 4.469

11/21/94: 4.444

 

78 & 94 had multiple days over +4 but down the line for those winters were pretty much opposites. 78 was a straight tank into blocking heaven and 94-95 pretty much sucked in the blocking department. 

 

Hopefully we start to see at least some signs of the strong +AO breaking down late this month. If not then Dec could be an unfriendly month for us. Which is what most are expecting anyways. I suppose it's worth pointing out that 78 had a decent measurable snow (3-5" around the region) in late Nov. I'll hug that analog for now along with a side order of 09-10. 

 

That's interesting...looking at the -PNA Nov's for nino's shows a good correlation of what happened in Oct and has majority great winters sans 95.

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Note there is a pretty good Nino discussion going on here. Just need to overlook all the wishcasting from 40N

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46340-possible-strongsuper-el-ni%C3%B1o-forming/page-75?

nice discussion but why do some of them seem to be rooting for an east based nino? I've seen nothing that would indicate that's a good thing for winter in the nyc area. I also see nothing to indicate this is shifting east either. If anything the center of the greatest warmth continues to shift west. This winter will test what's more important. The overall strength of the nino or the location of the greatest warmth. I'm not sure how it plays out but I have a suspicion this is not going to have the same result as 97/98.
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nice discussion but why do some of them seem to be rooting for an east based nino? I've seen nothing that would indicate that's a good thing for winter in the nyc area. I also see nothing to indicate this is shifting east either. If anything the center of the greatest warmth continues to shift west. This winter will test what's more important. The overall strength of the nino or the location of the greatest warmth. I'm not sure how it plays out but I have a suspicion this is not going to have the same result as 97/98.

 

It's really only one poster who keeps insisting it will become more east based with time. It's pretty obvious they are going to wrong at this point.

 

It's going to be a 3/3.4-based Nino....full basin for sure, but probably slightly east of 3.4-centered.

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It's really only one poster who keeps insisting it will become more east based with time. It's pretty obvious they are going to wrong at this point.

 

It's going to be a 3/3.4-based Nino....full basin for sure, but probably slightly east of 3.4-centered.

 

120-160 centered is actually pretty good for us down here.....west is not necessarily best....not to get too caught up in location, but 140 centered is definitely better than 120 centered which is where it is now....It would make me feel a little better to get core anomalies west of where we are now..though having a nino in region 4 I think is definitely a mitigator .....140-150 centered would probably put the best forcing near the dateline....I'm also a little worried about a gross EPO, not just for those reasons but because of what is being modeled...Ideally we want an aleutian/sub aleutian low soon....

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It's really only one poster who keeps insisting it will become more east based with time. It's pretty obvious they are going to wrong at this point.

It's going to be a 3/3.4-based Nino....full basin for sure, but probably slightly east of 3.4-centered.

It's hard to rely on enso alone this year down here. We seem to be right in the middle with the little dude on the left shoulder saying sell our souls while the dude on the right says be strong and seek salvation.

I kinda get the sense that Enso isn't what I should worry about anymore. The other forces and how they interact and time themselves in the mix are probably the most important at this point rather than worrying about ssta's. I have no idea where we are headed down this way.

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120-160 centered is actually pretty good for us down here.....west is not necessarily best....not to get too caught up in location, but 140 centered is definitely better than 120 centered which is where it is now....It would make me feel a little better to get core anomalies west of where we are now..though having a nino in region 4 I think is definitely a mitigator .....140-150 centered would probably put the best forcing near the dateline....I'm also a little worried about a gross EPO, not just for those reasons but because of what is being modeled...Ideally we want an aleutian/sub aleutian low soon....

 

It will be interesting to see how it evolves over the next 2-3 weeks. We're running out of time to really care...maybe another month at most. The Nino 4 thing is interesting since we've never had Nino 4 remotely this warm in a Nino this strong.

 

nino3.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

nino34.png

 

 

 

nino4.png

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It's hard to rely on enso alone this year down here. We seem to be right in the middle with the little dude on the left shoulder saying sell our souls while the dude on the right says be strong and seek salvation.

I kinda get the sense that Enso isn't what I should worry about anymore. The other forces and how they interact and time themselves in the mix are probably the most important at this point rather than worrying about ssta's. I have no idea where we are headed down this way.

 

The most important thing ENSO will do for you is give an amped STJ...you can probably reduce DCA's chances of a blockbuster winter by like 80% without a good STJ.

 

Obviously there are other important pieces that need to happen like not have a vortex the size of a small galaxy covering the northern Pacific like what happened in '97-'98 too...as zwyts hinted at above. You need a N PAC that at least gives a fighting chance...unlike '97-'98.

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It will be interesting to see how it evolves over the next 2-3 weeks. We're running out of time to really care...maybe another month at most. The Nino 4 thing is interesting since we've never had Nino 4 remotely this warm in a Nino this strong.

 

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SV today actually had region 4 at 1.64 which is the highest it has been...not sure what dataset they are drawing from, but it runs a little cooler than OISST, which makes me think next Monday's update could be absurd in 3.4...over 3 maybe....as it is 2.82 today

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SV today actually had region 4 at 1.64 which is the highest it has been...not sure what dataset they are drawing from, but it runs a little cooler than OISST, which makes me think next Monday's update could be absurd in 3.4...over 3 maybe....as it is 2.82 today

Euro has been predicting 3.4> +3.0 for months.
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The most important thing ENSO will do for you is give an amped STJ...you can probably reduce DCA's chances of a blockbuster winter by like 80% without a good STJ.

 

Obviously there are other important pieces that need to happen like not have a vortex the size of a small galaxy covering the northern Pacific like what happened in '97-'98 too...as zwyts hinted at above. You need a N PAC that at least gives a fighting chance...unlike '97-'98.

 

LOL on the small galaxy. So true. And painful to watch when it happens. You can't even buy some hope with the 384 hr gfs op when the pac is disgusting. 

 

I'm hoping we get something down here before Jan. Will be interesting to watch the re-shuffle continue over the next month. There's no reason to say the GOA trough later this month won't retro as we move forward in time. I personally don't spend too much time contemplating JFM before Dec is over. I'm going to hold onto some optimism that Dec (over even late Nov) gives us a chance or 2 at something until it's obvious there is no hope. Long ways to go before the no hope flag can be hoisted. 

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