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End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015


Allsnow

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This looks like a pretty complex setup next week. Basically we have a fairly strong clipper diving south at the same time a low pressure trying to form in the Gulf. With all this energy, you might expect the two systems to phase somewhere along the East Coast. The models aren't showing that though. Instead you get a low that skirts out to sea and perhaps an inverted trough that impacts northeast Maine and Canada.

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The EPO flip keeps getting pushed back on ens. Once it gets inside day 10, we'll start talking warmup

The EPO/WPO will be the ONLY teleconnection left after next Sunday, PNA goes negative, NAO and AO stay strongly positive, and when the PNA goes negative, we will see southeast ridging pop up. Once loose the EPO, the fat lady will be singing for this winter. There are indications that it and the WPO will be rising from their solidly negative values towards neutral after March 1st, but we shall see....
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The EPO/WPO will be the ONLY teleconnection left after next Sunday, PNA goes negative, NAO and AO stay strongly positive, and when the PNA goes negative, we will see southeast ridging pop up. Once loose the EPO, the fat lady will be singing for this winter. There are indications that it and the WPO will be rising from their solidly negative values towards neutral after March 1st, but we shall see....

Fantastic, hopefully we get one last big one......after which I hope to see record breaking warmth this Spring followed by a seasonally warm to hot summer.

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The EPO/WPO will be the ONLY teleconnection left after next Sunday, PNA goes negative, NAO and AO stay strongly positive, and when the PNA goes negative, we will see southeast ridging pop up. Once loose the EPO, the fat lady will be singing for this winter. There are indications that it and the WPO will be rising from their solidly negative values towards neutral after March 1st, but we shall see....

 

The AO + NAO have been positive all winter, I think you can stop mentioning that in every one of your posts now. If the EPO stays neg, while the PNA goes neg. we get a SE ridge with the meat grinder H5 that we saw earlier in the season. Again, I see discussion in here about 60's and 70's in march but I don't see that on guidance right now. To me that's akin to wishcasting a blizzard, but that's just me. That vortex by greenland needs to go IMO, it's keeping the cold flow into SE Canada.

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The AO + NAO have been positive all winter, I think you can stop mentioning that in every one of your posts now. If the EPO stays neg, while the PNA goes neg. we get a SE ridge with the meat grinder H5 that we saw earlier in the season. Again, I see discussion in here about 60's and 70's in march but I don't see that on guidance right now. To me that's akin to wishcasting a blizzard, but that's just me. That vortex by greenland needs to go IMO, it's keeping the cold flow into SE Canada.

 

Using teleconnections for long range forecasts is overrated. This winter should have made that clear. Remember when all the mets in late fall were claiming this winter would feature a strong negative AO/NAO? Thinking about teleconnections is only useful in the short term.

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The AO + NAO have been positive all winter, I think you can stop mentioning that in every one of your posts now. If the EPO stays neg, while the PNA goes neg. we get a SE ridge with the meat grinder H5 that we saw earlier in the season. Again, I see discussion in here about 60's and 70's in march but I don't see that on guidance right now. To me that's akin to wishcasting a blizzard, but that's just me. That vortex by greenland needs to go IMO, it's keeping the cold flow into SE Canada.

Please show me where I said we are going into the 60's and 70's
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For the record, can nyc get away with a -pna, and SE ridge, and both the nao and ao being positive? Yes, gradient pattern, IF it sets up right and IF and only IF the epo is negative. Anyone south of nyc is dead in the water with that setup even with the negative epo. If the epo goes positive in that setup, there is no escaping warmth, no way to sugar coat it, it would be an above normal flow pattern for sure. In that setup, I'd be worried about even a neutral epo, it has to stay solidly negative

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For the record, can nyc get away with a -pna, and SE ridge, and both the nao and ao being positive? Yes, gradient pattern, IF it sets up right and IF and only IF the epo is negative. Anyone south of nyc is dead in the water with that setup even with the negative epo. If the epo goes positive in that setup, there is no escaping warmth, no way to sugar coat it, it would be an above normal flow pattern for sure. In that setup, I'd be worried about even a neutral epo, it has to stay solidly negative

 

Please re-read what I said earlier

 

 

The AO + NAO have been positive all winter, I think you can stop mentioning that in every one of your posts now. If the EPO stays neg, while the PNA goes neg. we get a SE ridge with the meat grinder H5 that we saw earlier in the season. Again, I see discussion in here about 60's and 70's in march but I don't see that on guidance right now. To me that's akin to wishcasting a blizzard, but that's just me. That vortex by greenland needs to go IMO, it's keeping the cold flow into SE Canada.

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Typhoon Tip just posted this in the NE forum, take it for what you will.... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

943 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

VALID 12Z WED FEB 25 2015 - 12Z SUN MAR 01 2015

...PATTERN CHANGE...

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH A NEW TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST AND A RECENTERING OF THE

EASTERN TROUGH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE UPSHOT OF THESE CHANGES IN THE WEST IS A CRASHING OF THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH OF LATE AND A REINTRODUCTION OF LOWLAND RAINS AND HIGH-COUNTRY SNOWS. IN THE

EAST, ONE LAST ARCTIC HIGH SETTLING FARTHER EAST IMPLIES THAT THE CHANCES FOR SNOW OR ICE FROM ANY SOUTHERN-STREAM WAVE ARE DIMINISHING, WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION FAR MORE LIKELY AS THE LAST

OF THE FRIGID HIGHS RETREATS OFFSHORE DAY 7 AND WARM ADVECTION FUELS ANOTHER ROUND OF ICE AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

CISCO

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Pazzo, check the discussion above, the climate prediction center is saying it's all she wrote after next Sunday...

Because long range forecasting has worked out so well this winter. That said, spring will eventually come, unless, of course, that Kentucky sheriff was right and this is all Queen Elsa's fault.

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I think the first half of March will still average below normal but it will certainly be a lot milder than we've seen so it'll feel like a huge warm up even though it may still be 5-10 degrees below normal.

The +EPO has been getting delayed by a few days, but it looks like a classic case of delayed not denied and also you have to account for a lag once it switches to positive.

We have to wait until post 3/20 for more above normal temperatures or right on cue with springtime. You can add or subtract a few days based on how long the -EPO holds.

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