tnmetalhead Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yep, further east you are in the valley the more warming will occur. Low elevations nearest the mountain get more SW flow, and less protection from the Plateau acting as a dam. However after the heavier precip makes it further east your dewpoint should kick your temp back down quite a bit. Yeah I never do well here in ice setups here at home, but often times I can drive a couple miles down the road and it will be several degrees cooler. Light sleet and rain has begun, but only dropped my temp down to 36 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 24.9 over an 11 dewpoint in north Johnson City right now. Wife said it's snowing very lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 33* and moderate rain. YEEEEE HAWWWWWWW!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah I never do well here in ice setups here at home, but often times I can drive a couple miles down the road and it will be several degrees cooler. Light sleet and rain has begun, but only dropped my temp down to 36 so far. Keep us updated. Your area I would be very interested in...just to see what happens when this precip falls into dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The lines have been drawn(for right now). This baby is going to kick into high gear. Visibility is dropping and flakes are falling quicker. Carvers the HRRR literally has a huge cutoff line between rain/snow right over Kingsport later on into the system. There's going to be a sharp cutoff somewhere close to the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Appears MRX doesn't expect surface above 32 anywhere except far southern areas around Chatt. MRX: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN1105 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR AND DANGEROUS WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIREFORECAST REGION THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH ALONG THE FAR NORTHERNPLATEAU...ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINA...A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS UNDERWAY. UNDERNEATH SOME OF THE HEAVIERBANDS...1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLETHROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...WITH STORM TOTALS APPROACHING 8 TO 10INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS OFSOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY TONIGHT. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...VERY DANGEROUSTRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THESE AREAS...AND IS STRONGLYDISCOURAGED.TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY AND EVENPORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND SMOKY MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...THESITUATION IS FAR MORE COMPLICATED. A STRONG 850/700 MB LLJ WILLBRING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT BY THE MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.THIS WILL GIVE US A CLASSIC SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN PROFILE FORMOST OF THE THESE AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IT IS A CLASSIC SETUPFOR SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY ICING ALONG THE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERNPLATEAU AND EVEN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY...WITH A MIX OFACCUMULATING SLEET/SNOW AND SOME ICE ACCRETION OF UP TO 1/4 TO 1/2OF AN INCH OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME OBVIOUSTREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THEEVENING...SOME COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT AND CHANGE THESLEET/FREEZING RAIN OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW...WITH SOMEACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE VERYCOMPLICATED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANTICE ACCRETION IN OUR AREA YET AS OF THIS MORNING...HAVE OPTED TOSTICK WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NOW.TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CHA METRO AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...TEMPERATURES ALOFT /THANKS TO A BACKED SURFACE WIND/ SHOULD HELPTO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL BUT THE FAR ELEVATED PLACESABOVE 1000-1500 FEET SUCH AS SIGNAL MOUNTAIN/MONTEAGLE MOUNTAIN.THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT THROUGH THEAFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT ICE/SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONSLATE. SOME ICING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THESEAREAS...SO HAVE STUCK WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THOSE AREASFOR NOW. AS MENTIONED...COLDER AIR AND A CHANGE OVER TO ALLSNOW/SLEET IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH AN ADDITIONALROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE ANDSOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHERAMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.ALL IN ALL...THIS IS A VERY SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS WINTER STORMFOR THE ENTIRE REGION. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR TREACHEROUSTRAVEL CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. ANYTRAVEL IS VERY STRONGLY DISCOURAGED...ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOONDUE TO THESE EXPECTED LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21 degrees here. A long way to go to 32. Like Carvers and others noted I also noticed a NE wind. Here is what I got so far Oh no! Look at all those vehicles that have slid off the road already... I hope you guys enjoy your storm down there and be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 North of GC, it looks like mostly sleet to me but some snow mixed in, whatever it is it's very fine but again, I may not be getting heavy rates just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The lines have been drawn(for right now). This baby is going to kick into high gear. Visibility is dropping and flakes are falling quicker. Carvers the HRRR literally has a huge cutoff line between rain/snow right over Kingsport later on into the system. There's going to be a sharp cutoff somewhere close to the border. Right now, I don't even look at the HRRR or the RAP. They have been awful for here during past storms. And now offense to you at all. Hey, how about posting the latest RGEM snowfall map. You have access to it. I won't say who told me about it...but it was a good source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A nice sleet zr mix hit west knoxville a few minutes ago, my deck is already glazed over. Temp 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Right now, I don't even look at the HRRR or the RAP. They have been awful for here during past storms. And now offense to you at all. Hey, how about posting the latest RGEM snowfall map. You have access to it. I won't say who told me about it...but it was a good source. No offense taken. I look at those models because those are higher resolution models but they seem to be too warm. Here ya go! Looks pretty darn good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Pic from my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still light to moderate snow falling. If it would just shake the sleet it could be so much better. As it is, I may be in this battlezone all day long. Temp is 22 and hasn't budged all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I really hope you pick up a few inches this afternoon. OHX was still pretty bullish on your snow totals last I saw. 2 Facebook.png Pic from my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Moderate snow at this point(on the low end of moderate). Roads are getting bad. No sleet involved at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshNeoG Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Mix bag coming from the sky here in Oak Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 2 Facebook.png Pic from my house Nothing to be ashamed of there. This is been a royally, crappy winter. So, enjoy it. Does not look like our only chances either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Winds NNE, like John1122 state...light sleet w/ slow precip rates...snow w/ stronger. When the full storm moves in, should be all snow here. I think TRI will be ok w/ snow. This system looks a bit south to me which would incline me to believe the cold is holding its own. Here it seems slower rate = zr, heavy rates = sleet. Sleet is ripping outside right now. Getting white pretty fast. Edit: aaaaaand snow mixing in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Oh no! Look at all those vehicles that have slid off the road already... I hope you guys enjoy your storm down there and be safe. Lol that's the neighbors pileup that's been sitting there for 20 years. Snow is picking up but still very fine and it is blowing from the east. Here is the 11:30 am update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I really hope you pick up a few inches this afternoon. OHX was still pretty bullish on your snow totals last I saw. probably right now looking at the mesoscale the 850;s are just above freezing,not even one degree,quite annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here it seems slower rate = zr, heavy rates = sleet. Sleet is ripping outside right now. Getting white pretty fast. I am afraid you all get a major ice storm. However, maybe the jog south on the RGEM could happen one more time. I do think the cold is winning out in the eastern Valley. Fresh, cold air in the valley is one tough not to budge. If this air was stale, we would be cooked. However, no matter the frozen precip type...pretty significant winter storm for the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Clarksville is reporting heavy snow and 20. Their temp has steadily fallen all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Back to window rattling sleet. Light = light sleet. Moderate = light snow/sleet. Heavy = heavy sleet/ mod snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lewismtn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just getting into heavier snow just north of you all, but temp is slowly rising. About 2" since 8:30 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 trees starting to shine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 alas I appear to have snow slightly north of gate city va, still some sleet mixed in but much lesser amounts then earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 35 with a dew point of 32 here in Huntsville. Not looking like we are going to see anything frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Heavy sleet with snow mixing in Fountain City. Roads and roofs getting covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Stove, I've got fairly hard sleet on my side of Kingston Pike. My patio/car and skylights are covered. I assume it's all sleet because it bounces when it hits. It's very fine, but coming hard enough to be very loud on my skylights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 35 with a dew point of 32 here in Huntsville. Not looking like we are going to see anything frozen. Bama, hate to hear that. That last jog on the models was probably correct in regards to N Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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