Revracer800 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like i will be in the bullseye for some lake effect then lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm going with a generalized 2-4" across all of CNY for today's event, with some places reaching 6" where they stay under the band a little longer. The 6z GFS also backed off its crazy solution from last night, so hopefully that was just a fluky run. I'd agree with those numbers for CNY from the clipper/front. Probably not entirely dissimilar from Sunday but perhaps not as strong of a single super squall line. I can't even ascertain what to expect from LES. Between KBGM and KBUF discussions, I might expect occasional snow showers or possibly thundersnow. I'll go with past history, where 3-7" of LES is most likely IMBY. We just don't get outrageous totals here typically. As far as Sunday, I think I saw KBGM's disco actually stated that there will be no HP in place, thus the rain. They clearly are all aboard the GFS trend as of last night. Granted, the core of the cold will be rotating northeast but there's a fairly deep trough and push of arctic air that this system will be running into. We may get multiple waves but I suspect WNY/CNY will see more frozen than liquid. If there was a single concentrated slp/h850 low that tracked over CNY/WNY, I could see a warmer solution. If smaller/weaker waves move along a boundary, a colder solution should verify. This is still days off so we'll see but I thought it curious that AFD's would be talking about such a warm solution and multiple smaller pieces moving ENE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'd agree with those numbers for CNY from the clipper/front. Probably not entirely dissimilar from Sunday but perhaps not as strong of a single super squall line. I can't even ascertain what to expect from LES. Between KBGM and KBUF discussions, I might expect occasional snow showers or possibly thundersnow. I'll go with past history, where 3-7" of LES is most likely IMBY. We just don't get outrageous totals here typically. As far as Sunday, I think I saw KBGM's disco actually stated that there will be no HP in place, thus the rain. They clearly are all aboard the GFS trend as of last night. Granted, the core of the cold will be rotating northeast but there's a fairly deep trough and push of arctic air that this system will be running into. We may get multiple waves but I suspect WNY/CNY will see more frozen than liquid. If there was a single concentrated slp/h850 low that tracked over CNY/WNY, I could see a warmer solution. If smaller/weaker waves move along a boundary, a colder solution should verify. This is still days off so we'll see but I thought it curious that AFD's would be talking about such a warm solution and multiple smaller pieces moving ENE... 00z GFS, IMO, was way too amped...the GEFS and subsequent 06 runs/ensembles paint a much colder/frozen picture.....I think C/W NY will be fine wrt p-type issues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 00z GFS, IMO, was way too amped...the GEFS and subsequent 06 runs/ensembles paint a much colder/frozen picture.....I think C/W NY will be fine wrt p-type issues.... yeah, 6z GFS looks pretty amazing for us, plenty of time to see which way this develops. With the arctic air in place, I tend to think we'll see a colder solution. Fortunately, we have plenty to "enjoy" between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 yeah, 6z GFS looks pretty amazing for us, plenty of time to see which way this develops. With the arctic air in place, I tend to think we'll see a colder solution. Fortunately, we have plenty to "enjoy" between now and then.Yeah, late this afternoon into the evening should see a few hour period of pretty good rates (1-2"/hr.)...then a bit of a lull before the LES sets up late tonight in earnest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Has anyone else noticed how the RAP and HRRR are rarely kept up to date on NOAA's website? They latest available there are the 7z runs when the 14z runs are out everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 LOL! Part of the AFD out of Gaylord, MI: WELL...WE HAVE GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE BAD NEWS FIRST - TEMPERATURES TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK MAY WELL BE COLDER AT TIMES THAN THOSE SEEN THIS PAST WEEKEND...WHICH IS A SCARY THOUGHT. THE GOOD NEWS? JUST KIDDING...THERE REALLY ISN`T ANY...UNLESS YOU ARE A BIG FAN OF EXTREME COLD...OR YOU COUNT THE FACT THAT CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY ON THE INCREASE. SADLY WE WON`T COME ANYWHERE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT MANY SPOTS MAY WELL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO ON THURSDAY AS SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LAST 20-30+ YEARS IS PROGGED TO SPILL DOWN OVERHEAD. TO PUT IT IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURE RECORDED DURING THE APX RAOB YEARS SINCE 1996 IS -28C (NEARLY TIED THIS PAST WEEKEND)...WITH THE COLDEST IN THE SOO ERA DOWN AROUND -31C. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PEG READINGS DOWN AROUND -30C TO -31C BY THURSDAY MORNING - CERTAINLY EYE-CATCHING FROM A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE AND VERY INTERESTING FOR US FORECASTERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Buffalo Weather, I'd be amazed if this weekends storm turns into a rain storm for your Ski Trip. Just would be a complete change in a very consistent weather pattern. Which is NOT advertised by the overall shceme of things. At least not for the next 2-3 weeks. I went on a Bachelors party to Ellicotville last winter. What a great town! I hope you have opportunity to get to the brewery bar. Get the 30 dollar burger. It is worth it. Yeah Ellicottville bar and brewery is amazing. We always go there when we go skiiing. 1-2' for some lucky FEW by Friday afternoon (today's synoptic burst, followed by a delayed LES response..but a decent one!)...The band will be narrow, but intense. Area still looks like S. Oswego Co./N.Onondaga Co. and back toward the lake (clipping extreme N. Cayuga Co.) BUF is indecisive, but need not be. BGM will play catch up. Flake size will be decent for a good portion of the event (esp. Thurs. late morning into the evening). 2 inches per hour snowfall rates and only go with an advisory sounds kinda crazy. 00z GFS, IMO, was way too amped...the GEFS and subsequent 06 runs/ensembles paint a much colder/frozen picture.....I think C/W NY will be fine wrt p-type issues.... You're definitely right. Most model guidance has went away from the super amped solution to a more progressive overrunning event that was already depicted in most ensemble guidance. I am still worried, but not as much as last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Has anyone else noticed how the RAP and HRRR are rarely kept up to date on NOAA's website? They latest available there are the 7z runs when the 14z runs are out everywhere else. 15z run is out now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Most if not all south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Most if not all south. Beantown will finagle a way to get a foot out of this. Which is really why I'm not worried about a "too warm" solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z GFS kept the weaker/overrunning idea but shunted the storm further north, right across CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z GFS kept the weaker/overrunning idea but shunted the storm further north, right across CNY. It brings the 0C 850 isotherm up to about Cortland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z GFS kept the weaker/overrunning idea but shunted the storm further north, right across CNY. You see the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 You see the Canadian. NAVGEM too....let's see what the Euro holds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 NAVGEM too....let's see what the Euro holds.... It's hard to see a way out of this. That strong surface high building over the Western/Central Atlantic is going to really work against us, just not enough blocking at all. What a disastrous run this was.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's hard to see a way out of this. That strong surface high building over the Western/Central Atlantic is going to really work against us, just not enough blocking at all. What a disastrous run this was.... Yep, seems clearly that the s/w in the southern stream is much stronger than earlier progs had shown....should be a pretty quick mover though....snow...12hr. period above freezing with rain...then back in the ice box!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Channel 9 is really downplaying the lake effect for tomorrow. Their timecast is barely showing anything just some flurries over CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 From BGM: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 130 PM UPDATE... SFC LOW HAS DVLPD ACRS WRN PA AS OF 18Z WITH MAIN SFC LOW OVR SRN ONTARIO. SFC TROF AHD OF MAIN ARCTIC FRONT IS IN PLACE ACRS WRN NY/PA AND WL LKLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DVLPMNT OF SNOW SQUALLS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVNG AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG LOW AND ASSOC LEAD TROF. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY FOR SNOW SQUALLS EXISTS ACRS THE FINGER LKS AFT 21Z AND DIMINISHES AS IT HEADS TWD THE I-81 CORRIDOR AS CAPE AND LAPSE RATES WANE TWD THE EVNG HRS. TRUE ARCTIC AIR WL NOT SNEAK INTO WRN ZONES UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z, THUS HV DELAYED COLD AIR MVG IN UNTIL AFT 06Z. MIN TEMPS BY MRNG WL DIP TO ARND 0F ACRS THE FINGER LKS WITH "WARMER" AIR OVR THE SERN ZONES WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS. LK EFFECT SNOW WL TRY TO KICK IN AFT 06Z TONIGHT. DENDRITE LAYER DROPS PRETTY MUCH INTO THE GROUND AFT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE CRYSTAL GROWTH EXPECTED TONIGHT. OTHER UNFAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LK SNOWS IS THAT ONTARIO IS ALMOST 80% COVERED IN ICE AND UPSTREAM LKS HV BEEN PRETTY MUCH TAKEN OUT OF THE EQUATION. WIND CHILL TEMPS TWD 12Z DROP INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE WITH HEADLINES WELL IN HAND. As I said during the "surprise" LES event over NIA and BUF before the prior storm, the geography is often overlooked, wrt the organization of a convergence zone over the long axis of Erie and Ontario. Initially there will be "some" ambient moisture, which will get the band going (probably around 8-14z Thurs.) There is enough open water over the lake to have a substantial band form. I think BGM, NewsChannel 9 are both way underplaying the potential for this event....it won't be a blockbuster, but IMO, it will be significant. BUF seems on target....but certainly in a cautious fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 309 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015 NYZ004>006-190415- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0004.150219T0500Z-150220T1500Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0013.150219T0300Z-150220T1800Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO 309 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...WAYNE...OSWEGO AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES THURSDAY...1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 13 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH. * VISIBILITIES.... * WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 30 BELOW. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DANGEROUS COLD AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Its just incredible to me how that KBUF snow map completely contradicts what KBGM is forecasting? How can 2 forecasting offices, adjacent to each other, have such contradicting forecasts? Makes absolutely no sense, at least to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Its just incredible to me how that KBUF snow map completely contradicts what KBGM is forecasting? How can 2 forecasting offices, adjacent to each other, have such contradicting forecasts? Makes absolutely no sense, at least to me!If you're in Belgium BGM expects 2-3" on their map and cross the county line and BUF says 14-18". Fun.Us SUNY Oswego forecasters that provide DOT forecasts are middle of the road at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 UKie's interpretation wrt Precip totals this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If you're in Belgium BGM expects 2-3" on their map and cross the county line and BUF says 14-18". Fun. Us SUNY Oswego forecasters that provide DOT forecasts are middle of the road at this point That's about where I am at. Per KBGM, basically 2" per forecast period, so let's extrapolate that to 6-7" by Friday afternoon. Right across the river in Phoenix, about double those amounts. And the KBUF forecast map has 10-14 for Phoenix and 14-18" not that far away. Let the games begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 UKie's interpretation wrt Precip totals this weekend! Most of that is rain or freezing rain as the surface low tracks over BUF and toward CYUL, 18z GFS is much more suppressed and looks to keep you guys all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Most of that is rain or freezing rain as the surface low tracks over BUF and toward CYUL, 18z GFS is much more suppressed and looks to keep you guys all snow. 6z GFS was more suppressed also, following last nights 00z warm run. Too bad the "off hour" runs are usually less reliable than the 00/12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Wonder where that band on the lake is gonna go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 6z GFS was more suppressed also, following last nights 00z warm run. Too bad the "off hour" runs are usually less reliable than the 00/12z runs. Look how funny it is around KBOS, lol. .3 of liquid but if it were to be frozen it'd be 1.5" Liq Equ, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Wonder where that band on the lake is gonna go... Right over my house if it ever gets here, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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