BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS ensembles. Impressive general agreement for a wide swath of snow for this far out. All we need is for the high to be a smidge stronger and push the storm a bit east and everyone wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What a perfect meso low that formed earlier today on Lake Ontario! Also a great pic to assess ice cover. We may never see this much ice on Lake Ontario again during the rest of our lives! (Image from Tom niziols Facebook page) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What a perfect meso low that formed earlier today on Lake Ontario! Also a great pic to assess ice cover. We may never see this much ice on Lake Ontario again during the rest of our lives! (Image from Tom niziols Facebook page) image.jpg That is so awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 -8 here. It's crazy to think temps got below -20 several times here last year. Might be another 20 years before another winter like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 when it gets really cold, like this, I've seen times were several meso lows form over Lake Ontario. Here is an image of the micro low that came ashore late Saturday with snowfall rates of 2-4"/ hr. It was exciting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think Central/Southern New York could get a decent event tomorrow. Maybe 2-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This upcoming LES event is really hard to fcst. I'm not super hopeful. But the parameters are in place. I do agree that the cold and snow growth limits can impact this event. I'm getting tired of events that LOOK like blizzards if you look out the window, but end up only accumulating a couple or few inches due to tiny snowflake size. I've had at least 3 events recently that are like that. With some unexpected snowflake growth, we could do better than expected along the South Shore. Everything else seems to line up. But I don't understand heights the way I wish I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Congrats Oswego/Syracuse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 0z GFS is ugly for the weekend storm. Low deepens below 1000 mb and cuts up through northwest PA and CNY. Needless to say, we all torch during the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 0z GFS is ugly for the weekend storm. Low deepens below 1000 mb and cuts up through northwest PA and CNY. Needless to say, we all torch during the height of the storm. I really hope that doesn't happen. My ski trip is this weekend. The GEFS were much more suppressed at 18z. Really hope a met can chime in as it would change my plans quite a bit this weekend. So far only the operational GFS is this amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Congrats Oswego/Syracuse! Do we know what is this map based on? Model output or human forecast? certainly aligns with KBUF thinking but certainly not KBGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Do we know what is this map based on? Model output or human forecast? certainly aligns with KBUF thinking but certainly not KBGM. Not sure. But I would trust KBUF 100/100 times over KBGM when it comes to Lake Effect, and not to mention our very own LEK the Lake Effect master. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Some crazy snow depths out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 SWE in the 3-5" range in Erie county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GGEM is a little NW but still all snow with significant accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 SWE in the 3-5" range in Erie county. Well that was unexpected.. did you see the 0z op GFS? it has the 546 thickness line all the way up to central erie county with 1"+ qpf..yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well that was unexpected.. did you see the 0z op GFS? it has the 546 thickness line all the way up to central erie county with 1"+ qpf..yikes Has no support from ensembles. At least the 18z where 60% missed us to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Meanwhile in New Brunswik Canada.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Meanwhile in New Brunswik Canada.. Awesome! I saw a few 70" snow depths up on the Maine/Canada border near the shore a few days ago lol. Crazy! GGEM looks much better for the weekend storm. I'd rather get missed than get rained all weekend at Holiday Valley. Please weather gods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Buffalo Weather, I'd be amazed if this weekends storm turns into a rain storm for your Ski Trip. Just would be a complete change in a very consistent weather pattern. Which is NOT advertised by the overall shceme of things. At least not for the next 2-3 weeks. I went on a Bachelors party to Ellicotville last winter. What a great town! I hope you have opportunity to get to the brewery bar. Get the 30 dollar burger. It is worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Bostonian's better start praying the Euro doesn't come to fruition as they'll need boats then Ice skates cause all of SNE gets close to 1" qpf and were still 4 days away from any event, if there is one, which mostly falls as liquid but I'd imagine their depth would take quite a bit more than 1" of liquid even if there's an uptick in the precip outputs to have any hydro problems, at least not initially, as temps plummet once again as the system passes off to their N&E. For us it looks like snow to start then a mix bag then back to snow as you all know the routine but I think as we come closer hopefully that HP to our North can nudge this front a bit further to our S&E so we can all have some fun! The LES event looks like a go from my vantage point but I don't think it will be anywhere near what was once thought but even a foot as KBUF is suggesting will be a fun time. I do think its going to be more of a multi-banded event as opposed to the single band event. A 290 flow (WNW) is just a tough flow to sustain for some strange reason but it looks as though it'll be more of a 300-310 flow so Syracuse Liverpool and the hills S&E of Syracuse can get walloped. Thinking Feyettville, Manlius and Caz stand the best chances of seeing some significant accumulations as there should be orographic lift to enhance whatever is falling out that way. Nowhere near as confident as I once was for my area but I'll be happy with whatever falls tomorrow afternoon through the night with the synoptic system itself. Wherever that front stalls it can get quite interesting tomorrow afternoon as some of the Mesoscale models are suggesting. So another fun day on tap for the area as we go through some intense atmospheric changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I always think of Syracuse as 290-300. And the South Lake Ontario Counties as 305 plus. I'm starting to think this might be a Niagara and Orleans special. AS they have very little ice north of them. And this is advertised as a 'once in a generation' upper level cold. But, with micro lows etc. we could see some fun In Monroe too. It might be a scenario where Wayne gets skipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm starting to really like the look of tomorrows SW dropping down from the Polar regions which obviously opens the doors to some of the coldest air of the season and I know we've heard this already too many times but its reality, lol. But as it rounds the bend it initiates a SLP somewhere around BGM and slowly drifts off to the N&E while the H7 it shows some impressive Omega values throughout the period listed. The whole system then transfers its energy to the coast eventually but not before leaving behind, what I think, will be a general 3-5" snowfall area wide with lollipops of 6-8" in areas with the most persistent light to at times moderate snow which lasts from roughly 3pm tomorrow through around 7am Thursday then the LE ensues on whatever flow it desires at the time, lol. I say this cause I like the development of the H7 lp as it heads off to our N&E. The GFS shows some nice Omega roughly through the time-frame I laid out and I like the way the GFS handle's Northern stream systems, at least this year, lol. Anyway, check out the H7 prog: The Nam, while not as robust, shows the same general track of the SLP with Omega values lower than that of the GFS. So we'll see as we get closer but that's what I see and it really depends where that CF stalls out which should enhance snowfall rates but there should be a general snowfall area wide either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The Euro is just as robust if not more-so than the GFS with its H7 Depiction as it closes it off much sooner than the GFS and to our SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 So NWS went with an advisory for Wayne thru Oswego. Obviously, they don't see a big event happening. Oh, well, it was fun to watch for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 They went with advisories which means nothing, lol. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY337 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015NYZ004>006-181645-/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0005.150219T0000Z-150220T1800Z//O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0013.150219T0300Z-150220T1800Z//O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0004.150219T0500Z-150220T1500Z/WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO337 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO1 PM EST FRIDAY......WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO10 AM EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO1 PM EST FRIDAY. THIS REPLACES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.* LOCATIONS...WAYNE...OSWEGO AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.* TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATETHIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND CHILLWARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAYMORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 11 INCHES IN THE MOSTPERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. 2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHESTHURSDAY...1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESSFRIDAY.* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.* WIND CHILL VALUES...10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT...15 TO 20BELOW THURSDAY AND AS LOW AS 30 BELOW THURSDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ANDSLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DANGEROUS COLD ANDPOTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BYTHURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIAIF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. I'll take it as it'll just add to the tremendous totals that already exist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 From their discussion they really have no clue how this LES event is going to unfold! LAKE SNOWS...THIS LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COMPLICATED EVENT FROM MANYASPECTS. THE BEST LAKE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER LAKEONTARIO. AS STATED ABOVE BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT SOME INCREDIBLYCOLD AIR WILL COME DOWN ACROSS THE LAKES. THIS WILL CREATE SOME VERYIMPRESSIVE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WITH LAKE SURFACE TO 700 MB DELTA TVALUES NEAR 35C WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. LAKEEQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO NEAR 15K FEET WITH DEEP LAYER STRONGVERTICAL MOTION REACHING TO 700 MB. THIS CERTAINLY RAISES THEPOTENTIAL FOR GETTING SOME LAKE EFFECT THUNDERSNOW AND INTENSESNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. HOWEVER...LIMITINGFACTORS WILL BE A VERY LOW OR NON-EXISTENT DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONEGIVEN EXTREME COLD AND DRY AIR AND INCREASING LAKE ONTARIO ICECOVERAGE. IT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO GET A SINGLE INTENSE LAKEBAND...UNLESS PRECONDITIONING FROM UPSTREAM LAKES OCCURS AND FLOWBACKS ENOUGH TO GAIN LONGER FETCH AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE. IFTHIS DOES NOT OCCUR AND A MULTIBAND STRUCTURE FORMS...SNOWFALLAMOUNTS WILL BE LESS. AT THIS POINT...WE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS ON THECONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAYNIGHT FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIOFROM EAST OF ROCHESTER TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. A WESTWARDEXTENSION TO ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERNLAKESHORE. A FROZEN LAKE ERIE WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERNSOUTHERN TIER....HOWEVER A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT ANDCONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE AMOUNTS WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUARIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm going with a generalized 2-4" across all of CNY for today's event, with some places reaching 6" where they stay under the band a little longer. The 6z GFS also backed off its crazy solution from last night, so hopefully that was just a fluky run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 1-2' for some lucky FEW by Friday afternoon (today's synoptic burst, followed by a delayed LES response..but a decent one!)...The band will be narrow, but intense. Area still looks like S. Oswego Co./N.Onondaga Co. and back toward the lake (clipping extreme N. Cayuga Co.) BUF is indecisive, but need not be. BGM will play catch up. Flake size will be decent for a good portion of the event (esp. Thurs. late morning into the evening). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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