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President's Day Weekend 2015 Storm Potential 2/14-2/15


bluewave

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Goose, was right with the coastal taking over much closer to coast, and it will be a bomb for someone, but the clipper just doesnt dig far anough south, whoever is on the NE side of the digging low will get crushed.

Now the question is, any chance this digs further south?

If the AO doesn't cooperate and with the NAO in pretty solid positive territory, I would venture to say it's hard pressed to dig further south. Additionally the PNA Ridge, though West based, is not nearly as strongly positive as first forecast. These factors combined; and I would venture to say the s/w will have a hard time digging further South. The one caveat: the forecasts for the AO have been all over the place lately, and just today ensembles are showing it heading towards neutral and perhaps dipping into negative territory. This will have huge implications on the eventual outcome imho.
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Did you notice how much more the energy out West has been digging the last several runs? While it is knocking down the PNA ridge it doesn't appear to be deamplifying the pattern. 

 

The PNA amplitude decreasing, means the shortwave energy will spend less time digging south and more time consolidating further north.

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The PNA amplitude decreasing, means the shortwave energy will spend less time digging south and more time consolidating further north.

Exactly. The PNA was our proverbial ace in the hole for this one. Now that the PNA is trending less positive, the s/w can't dig.
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For a signficant hit here we need the secondary to take over around hr 81 near Va./NC border...

 

With the location of the Jet Streak I find it odd that the GFS wants to pop the secondary over Northern Jersey...

 

I suspect we may see a shift much further south,  and that would help our area out greatly with this...

 

Seems that there probabably several areas of rapidly decreasing pressure and the GFS may be having difficulty zeroing in on the most favorable one...Where is the superior location? I think further south...

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The UKIE also trended towards a less elongated low, if that trend continues and we get a 100 mile SW shift with the actual low, we might not have to worry about the inverted trough as much.

 

Very correct... a secondary developing off NC/VA would benefit our area greatly and INV trough would not be needed but gladly taken... we'll see come UKMET and EURO!

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