snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Close to .75 for Bos north! One thing is the engery is tending north still. Any further north and its congrats Maine and that's itJust like we knew would happen, the norlun trough shifted into New England. No shock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Goose, was right with the coastal taking over much closer to coast, and it will be a bomb for someone, but the clipper just doesnt dig far anough south, whoever is on the NE side of the digging low will get crushed. Now the question is, any chance this digs further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Lets see what the ggem and euro shows before jumping off cliffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Goose, was right with the coastal taking over much closer to coast, and it will be a bomb for someone, but the clipper just doesnt dig far anough south, whoever is on the NE side of the digging low will get crushed. Now the question is, any chance this digs further south? If the AO doesn't cooperate and with the NAO in pretty solid positive territory, I would venture to say it's hard pressed to dig further south. Additionally the PNA Ridge, though West based, is not nearly as strongly positive as first forecast. These factors combined; and I would venture to say the s/w will have a hard time digging further South. The one caveat: the forecasts for the AO have been all over the place lately, and just today ensembles are showing it heading towards neutral and perhaps dipping into negative territory. This will have huge implications on the eventual outcome imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Lets see what the ggem and euro shows before jumping off cliffsIt's just not gunna happen for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like a nemo repeat or "blizzard repeat still days away to trend better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 2-4" or 4-6" depending on location on the front end dump. Then a bit of ice and then moderate to heavy rain. QPF is over 1" and close to 2" from LI up through SNE with a 3-4" JP over coastal RI and MA, almost all of that falling as rain. Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like a nemo repeat or "blizzard repeat still days away to trend better for us i hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Did you notice how much more the energy out West has been digging the last several runs? While it is knocking down the PNA ridge it doesn't appear to be deamplifying the pattern. The PNA amplitude decreasing, means the shortwave energy will spend less time digging south and more time consolidating further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 well..then there's the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like a nemo repeat or "blizzard repeat still days away to trend better for usuhhhh no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The PNA amplitude decreasing, means the shortwave energy will spend less time digging south and more time consolidating further north.Exactly. The PNA was our proverbial ace in the hole for this one. Now that the PNA is trending less positive, the s/w can't dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 WOW AT THE GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 WOW AT THE GEM It did something similar last night, I wish it wasn't such a crappy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 WOW AT THE GEM Details if you may?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Only have the GEM out to hour 81 but judging by other other posts, sounds like Anothony hacked it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 For a signficant hit here we need the secondary to take over around hr 81 near Va./NC border... With the location of the Jet Streak I find it odd that the GFS wants to pop the secondary over Northern Jersey... I suspect we may see a shift much further south, and that would help our area out greatly with this... Seems that there probabably several areas of rapidly decreasing pressure and the GFS may be having difficulty zeroing in on the most favorable one...Where is the superior location? I think further south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Okay, the GGEM crushes the area with the inverted trough. The East end of LI is 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 WOW AT THE GEM Let me guess a howling blizzard with over a foot from an unreliable model. lol. we are whiffing with consistency folks this makes 4 storms in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Details if you may?!? Hour 90 Mod snow through the area Hour 96 INV through Long Island back to KNYC Hour 102 deformation band bends back from CC across the ISLAND INTO KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Eyeballing it looks like EWR and points East are 0.75"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Hour 90 Mod snow through the area Hour 96 INV through Long Island back to KNYC Hour 102 deformation band bends back from CC across the ISLAND INTO KNYC The INV makes it all the way back to the Poconos. The entire area including NW areas are at least 0.50"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The closed 500mb low passes over SNJ and the snow just pours in to the north of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The INV makes it all the way back to the Poconos. The entire area including NW areas are at least 0.50"+ Where does the GGEM pop the secondary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The INV makes it all the way back to the Poconos. The entire area including NW areas are at least 0.50"+ Yes it does and the mod snow is into the LHV at hour 96 The INV over CC is 1.5 LE at 102 . No support yet , so caution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The canadian with yet another insane solution. We can almost guarantee the ukmet and euro look nothing like it. It's been doing this all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes it does and the mod snow is into the LHV at hour 96 The INV over CC is 1.5 LE at 102 . No support yet , so caution . Euro is really close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The UKIE also trended towards a less elongated low, if that trend continues and we get a 100 mile SW shift with the actual low, we might not have to worry about the inverted trough as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro is really closeLast night's operational euro had no ensemble support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The UKIE also trended towards a less elongated low, if that trend continues and we get a 100 mile SW shift with the actual low, we might not have to worry about the inverted trough as much. Very correct... a secondary developing off NC/VA would benefit our area greatly and INV trough would not be needed but gladly taken... we'll see come UKMET and EURO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.