donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Given the pattern and current guidance (ECMWF being an exception), a 3"-6" moderate snowfall looks to be a reasonable idea for NYC and adjacent areas. Of course, there's still some time for changes e.g., the PNA ridge could begin to rebuild and/or developing blocking grow faster than currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GFS is not that bad of a run It's not a disaster, to be sure. NYC would still get a moderate snowfall and the northern and western suburbs (NW NJ, Dutchess, Rockland, and Orange Counties) should do quite well. There, even with the current run, 8" or more looks likely with some amounts possibly approaching or reaching a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's not a disaster, to be sure. NYC would still get a moderate snowfall and the northern and western suburbs (NW NJ, Dutchess, Rockland, and Orange Counties) should do quite well. There, even with the current run, 8" or more looks likely with some amounts possibly approaching or reaching a foot. it is certainly better for NYC in terms of snow than the NAM. I think it has been obvious for a little while now that the front end thump is the key here, and the GFS keeps that for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's not a disaster, to be sure. NYC would still get a moderate snowfall and the northern and western suburbs (NW NJ, Dutchess, Rockland, and Orange Counties) should do quite well. There, even with the current run, 8" or more looks likely with some amounts possibly approaching or reaching a foot. Same for northern westchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 We gotta stop with the "it's over posts" I'm in a good position myself but I'm sure I can speak for a lot of others who are hoping this ticks south that your posts aren't helping unless there's some sort of substance to them Regarding a model analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 18z GFS basically kills the idea of a significant snowfall for the immediate NYC area. The PNA- is probably the teleconnection most out of line with significant snowfalls during the first half of February. For perspective, 50% of NYC's 3"-6" snowfalls during the first half of February occurred with a PNA-. In contrast, 31% of the City's 8" or greater snowfalls during that same timeframe occurred with a PNA-. The Euro has been colder than the GFS on this storm, so I wouldn't worry too much about the 18z GFS. Also, I consider 3-6" a "significant snowfall" for NYC since the area only averages 20-25" of snowfall per season. The obvious trend is towards more of a mixed precipitation event, but I don't think that precludes Central Park and its environs from picking up a decent-sized snowstorm. According to the 18z GFS, NYC's 2m temperature is shown at +3.1°C on Monday 18z. GFS surface temps are trash and don't take into account CAD very well. You're much better off using the Euro or NAM for 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 They aren't too far away from much less. If the models continue to warm and trend north even those alread could have mainly rain or a few inches at the onset washed away by rain. These areas are right on the borderline. If the storm trends south, they can get much more. It's anybody's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 well i still have a 9 inch snowpack up here and i doubt ill see bare ground other then streets and sidewalks for a while,plus i expect the models will correct themselves a bit south.the cold air and fresh high pressure are currently moving se from the canadian border and starting to string the moisture east.we should all be rooting for a strong high pressure to the north to lock in the cold as the low arrives and make the low transfer to the coast perhaps save us from much rain or mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Don I couldn't believe what I read just now from you. Early afternoon in the Philly forum yesterday I touted the -NAO/-AO/+PNA pattern as evidence that it couldn't come further north. Literally I said the PNA is forecast to spike. Sure enough I peek today and it's been scraping the bottom of the predicted range since I made that comment. In fact it might be verifying below the lower forecast bound. I suppose more of the energy coming out from Mexico meant the remaining energy was insufficient to pump up the west coast ridge. The PNA- is also bad for Philly. Just 8% of 8" or greater snowstorms and 14% of 6" or greater snowstorms during the 2/1-15 period occurred when the PNA was negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Same for northern westchester? Probably 4"-8" near HPN and then higher amounts from Mount Kisco northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18Z RGEM similar to 18Z GFS. 850's and Sfc 0C pretty much just south of NJ/NY border at 12Z Monday Trends today have not been positive and Euro seems to be cold outlier at this point. IMO RGEM is pretty good model and better than the NAM for short term guidance and that is what we are coming into at this point. Short term. If RGEM and GFS are similar at 00Z then it seems like most in the forum are going to mix or change to at a minimum sleet and south of 78 just plain rain. Freezing rain/ice accumulation would be reserved for a slice of NJ between RT80 and the NJ/NY border. To ignore the trends today is foolish. This is not to say there is not some snow accumulation with the initial WAA, but I thing it is less than 6" for most of NNJ south of RT 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Of course we don't know yet, but would it be fair to say that the north trend still isn't finished?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think long island could get a winter storm warning or ice storm warning,but being there will be snow,I think winter storm warning,but the heavy site and ice and flash freeze and 30 inch snow pack are very concerning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs will wipe out any snowpack around here. Ground bare by Tuesday. It's the end of the world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think long island could get a winter storm warning or ice storm warning,but being there will be snow,I think winter storm warning,but the heavy site and ice and flash freeze and 30 inch snow pack are very concerning.. Depth of snow pack irrelevant bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCowboy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Of course we don't know yet, but would it be fair to say that the north trend still isn't finished?? Yes...Maine will be all rain by Thursday. I cant help myself, delete me if you must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Depth of snow pack irrelevant bro Flat roofs, or any roofs snow covered... Not top mention ground will be colder versus bare ground potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Some jerk in CT or MA is going to have five feet of drifted snow by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Euro has been colder than the GFS on this storm, so I wouldn't worry too much about the 18z GFS. Also, I consider 3-6" a "significant snowfall" for NYC since the area only averages 20-25" of snowfall per season. The obvious trend is towards more of a mixed precipitation event, but I don't think that precludes Central Park and its environs from picking up a decent-sized snowstorm. GFS surface temps are trash and don't take into account CAD very well. You're much better off using the Euro or NAM for 2m temps. I agree that the higher resolution models do a better job with surface temperatures. The trend is what matters right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18Z RGEM similar to 18Z GFS. 850's and Sfc 0C pretty much just south of NJ/NY border at 12Z Monday Trends today have not been positive and Euro seems to be cold outlier at this point. IMO RGEM is pretty good model and better than the NAM for short term guidance and that is what we are coming into at this point. Short term. If RGEM and GFS are similar at 00Z then it seems like most in the forum are going to mix or change to at a minimum sleet and south of 78 just plain rain. Freezing rain/ice accumulation would be reserved for a slice of NJ between RT80 and the NJ/NY border. To ignore the trends today is foolish. This is not to say there is not some snow accumulation with the initial WAA, but I thing it is less than 6" for most of NNJ south of RT 80. 6 inches is still a decent event. Our average snowfal is noted for this reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 This storm doesn't really pull into here until Monday morning, still plenty of time for adjustments... Hopefully southward adjustments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This storm doesn't really pull into here until Monday morning, still plenty of time for adjustments... Hopefully southward adjustments It's amazing after cringing at southward adjustments for the past several seasons, we're now begging for one! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's amazing after cringing at southward adjustments for the past several seasons, we're now begging for one! LOL. That'll happen again in March as all the storms are suppressed to our south lol jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's amazing after cringing at southward adjustments for the past several seasons, we're now begging for one! LOL. Let's also acknowledge the fact that this storm 3 days ago was a DC and southern Jersey storm.. Amazing how far North it's come, and it really hasn't stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Let's also acknowledge the fact that this storm 3 days ago was a DC and southern Jersey storm.. Amazing how far North it's come, and it really hasn't stopped No it hasn't stopped. At this point, if I were anywhere south of Poughkeepsie I'd be wary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Every time I think this has moved too far north and is due for a southern correction it moves north again. In this case, the trend is not our friend. Holding out hope that the 0z suite has a little surprise in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'd agree, but the reasons it has come north aren't really reversible. The 500mb vort trended stronger and farther N. The mechanisms for this are now present and on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 According to the 18z GFS, NYC's 2m temperature is shown at +3.1°C on Monday 18z. Unless there is an actual frontal passage (i.e. the surface feature passes to the north of the station and the wind shifts into the sw)...I'm not sure how the 2m temp gets close to 40 F with a NE wind. Its not plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 its just were smart enough to live where it snows Some jerk in CT or MA is going to have five feet of drifted snow by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 its just were smart enough to live where it snows Until last Monday's storm...all of SNE was terribly overdue for snow. West of a line from Hartford down to New Haven...they are still running big time negative snow anomalies...Nature evens things out over the course of time. Remember, many parts of SNE average twice as much snow as the NYC area...and some of the higher spots in the Berkshires & Litchfield Hills average three and four times as much. That's a lot of ground to make up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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